Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[Vortex]

The 18Z NAM now depicts a well organized area of low pressure over the western Caribbean and in fact this run is the strongest yet.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[BigA]

84 hours out (with the low getting its act together in the 60 to 72 hour timeframe) is not that long. Could prove interesting.

[storm92405]

Try this site. It has several models to look at. Hope you like. Besides more and more models are jumping on board now something is going to form but what when and where is the question.



http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... s/gfs.html

[HURAKAN]

Interesting.

[Macrocane]

Try this site. It has several models to look at. Hope you like. Besides more and more models are jumping on board now something is going to form but what when and where is the question.



http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... s/gfs.html

Thanks for the site, I like it. The 18z GFS run it's less agressive than the previous runs, but still shows the are of low pressure, and with the other models in agreement there'e something to keep an eye on, I wouldn't be surprised if a stronger low pressure system forms in the EPAC as the GFS is showing by 192 h. That would be interesting for me as I live in El Salvador but that scenario it's beyond the more reliable 168 hr so I will have to wait.

[jinftl]

Latest TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) map shows that there is some 'juice' in the western caribbean...esp between the yucatan and cuba, south to 15N

[meteorologyman]

I believe the storm that is hovering over the small channel of Central America is the Low pressure that will form in Western Carribean in 3 days

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml

Pretty Strong on latest GFS

[Vortex]

00Z GFS develops a fairly well organized system over the western carribean over the next 3-5 days..

With the continued consistency of the GFS and other models latching on to the sme sort of closed low over the Western carribean I have little doubt NOW that something of least TD in nature will be form early to middle part of next week.

H+120

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

H+138-Well organized

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

H+162 Continues to deepen [/color]and slowly move nrth towards central cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

H+180 crosses cenral/western cuba as a stong TS/minimal hurricane and emerges in the Florida straits on a NNW heading typical of climatology.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[boca]

The interesting observation with this 00z run is the low is moving due north into the SE GOM at 192hrs. It doesn't show that NNE movement thru the Central bahamas anymore. After 192 the system moves due west thru the southern Gulf and weakens in the BOC at 264 hrs. I don't believe this low will move west once it enters the GOM. Maybe this is a bad run on this low.

[Vortex]

This appears to be a system that is partly spawned as the monsoon trough lifts north from panama as well as enhanced by energy arriving from the east. We should expect a large and deep area of persistent convection over this general area beginning as early as tommorow. As wind shear slackens off a more consolidated and eventually LLC should form late Sunday/Monday. Much interest wll be focused on this ara in the coming days.

[jinftl]

It could be interesting for sure...forecast for low shear, warm water (and moderate tchp in that region), climatologic-favored area for June...if a system does in fact develop in this region...no reason why a purely tropical system couldn't develop and strengthen.

This appears to be a system that is partly spawned as the monsoon trough lifts north from panama as well as enhanced by energy arriving from the east. We should expect a large and deep area of persistent convection over this general area beginning as early as tommorow. As wind shear slackens off a more consolidated and eventually LLC should form late Sunday/Monday. Much interest wll be focused on this ara in the coming days.

[Derek Ortt]

00Z GFS develops a fairly well organized system over the western carribean over the next 3-5 days..

With the continued consistency of the GFS and other models latching on to the sme sort of closed low over the Western carribean I have little doubt NOW that something of least TD in nature will be form early to middle part of next week.

H+120

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

H+138-Well organized

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

H+162 Continues to deepen [/color]and slowly move nrth towards central cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

H+180 crosses cenral/western cuba as a stong TS/minimal hurricane and emerges in the Florida straits on a NNW heading typical of climatology.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

it is still too soon to call for devleopment. I suspect, this will be a major bust on your part

need to stop hugging the GFS. If you can get your hands on the ECMWF ensemble, it is worth it

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

I thought this was a very interesting discussion about the Caribbean area from the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST SAT JUN 6 2009

MANY INTERESTING THINGS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS FORECAST WHICH ADD
SOME ELEMENTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THE
GFS HAS HAD A PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK...
SPLASHING IT ALTERNATELY AS FAR WEST AS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AS FAR EAST AS JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF 10 DAYS AND EVEN ITS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT A GIVEN.
IN PART THIS DIFFICULTY MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. RECENTLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
RECEIVED RECORD AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THERE WAS SNOWFALL...IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA...DUE TO AN UNUSUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT JUST
MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY
MOVE OVER THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND APPEARS TO FORM A CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
UNUSUALNESS OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE GIVING THE GFS DIFFICULTY. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE FORMATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[tailgater]

00Z GFS develops a fairly well organized system over the western carribean over the next 3-5 days..

With the continued consistency of the GFS and other models latching on to the sme sort of closed low over the Western carribean I have little doubt NOW that something of least TD in nature will be form early to middle part of next week.

H+120

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

H+138-Well organized

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

H+162 Continues to deepen [/color]and slowly move nrth towards central cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

H+180 crosses cenral/western cuba as a stong TS/minimal hurricane and emerges in the Florida straits on a NNW heading typical of climatology.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

it is still too soon to call for devleopment. I suspect, this will be a major bust on your part

need to stop hugging the GFS. If you can get your hands on the ECMWF ensemble, it is worth it

I appreciate your diligence with this possible development, I'm no PRO met but it sure looks like the conditions will start coming together.

[wxman57]

Looks very suspicious. The GFS develops the low on different days and has a different track with each run. It does have a problem with convection in this region, developing phantom lows all the time.

[cycloneye]

The area to watch.

[ronjon]

Looks like some sort of circulation center (low or mid-level) moving off the north coast of Panama this morning near 10N-80W. Heavy convection band just to the north of it. This might be the feature the models are developing in the w caribbean. Moving slowly NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[boca]

Ronjon maybe the phantom low might not be a phantom after all.It looks like its moving NNW after crossing off of Panama.Nice little spin to it.