Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Derek Ortt]

it makes some sense that the EC ridge leaves so quickly

the recurving WP typhoons may add enough energy to the mid lat storm track to force everything to shift. It is one possibility to monitor

[Dean4Storms]

Was it not Wxman57 that pointed out a couple weeks back that a pattern was noted where it was usually the 2nd of a set of strong TW's that went on to develop?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Was it not Wxman57 that pointed out a couple weeks back that a pattern was noted where it was usually the 2nd of a set of strong TW's that went on to develop?

Yes it was. That is cause of the effect one has to clear the air in front of the other. Mainly the Saharan air layer getting absorbed and dropped into the atlantic via rain. Each one is like a steam roller for the next one. Until you get a perfect setup for the season and the steamrollers stop

[Emmett_Brown]

While the long range GFS continues to swing from the GOM to the Canadian Maritimes, one thing has been consistent... GFS has consistently forecasted a CV storm to develop for days now, so this looks like the start of the season for real. According to the 18z run, we are just 48 hours from a TC forming:

[HURAKAN]

Not good if it verifies

[Derek Ortt]

why not? It misses the Caribbean if it verifies!

[gatorcane]

Keep in mind the 18Z GFS does not get run with the input data that the 12Z and 00Z runs do. And lets keep in mind we are talking about 300+ hours here. What the GFS is showing as far as track implications for the CONUS should this "trillion dollar" storm develop is likely not going to end up like that. I could easily see the 00Z track back into the Western Caribbean or maybe even into Central America.

At this point we can say some kind of named system looks like it will develop in the MDR as a Cape Verde system and track generally west under a ridge. That's about all we can say at this point with some degree of confidence.

[Emmett_Brown]

Some pretty favorable upper level easterly flow over top of our future storm, 48 hour GFS 300mb:

[cycloneye]

Keep in mind the 18Z GFS does not get run with the input data that the 12Z and 00Z runs do. And lets keep in mind we are talking about 300+ hours here. What the GFS is showing as far as track implications for the CONUS should this "trillion dollar" storm develop is likely not going to end up like that. I could easily see the 00Z track back into the Western Caribbean or maybe even into Central America.

At this point we can say some kind of named system looks like it will develop in the MDR as a Cape Verde system and track generally west under a ridge. That's about all we can say at this point with some degree of confidence.

GFS is not alone as other models are with this.

ECMWF
CMC
GFS
GFDL
UKMET

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Keep in mind the 18Z GFS does not get run with the input data that the 12Z and 00Z runs do. And lets keep in mind we are talking about 300+ hours here. What the GFS is showing as far as track implications for the CONUS should this "trillion dollar" storm develop is likely not going to end up like that. I could easily see the 00Z track back into the Western Caribbean or maybe even into Central America.

At this point we can say some kind of named system looks like it will develop in the MDR as a Cape Verde system and track generally west under a ridge. That's about all we can say at this point with some degree of confidence.

GFS is not alone as other models are with this.

ECMWF
CMC
GFS
GFDL
UKMET

Ya you beat me to it. Others play this scenario out with variations. All of them leading to some sort of development

[cycloneye]

Many may ask GFDL?

In the 99L animation,it has on low resolution wave behind 99L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[lonelymike]

THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS/
ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY NOW SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS ON
BOTH OCEANS. AT UPPER LEVELS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES/OFF THE COAST OF THE
USA...WHICH IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A WEAK/NARROW RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. IF THIS
PATTERN PERSIST...TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ARE LIKELY TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THEY ARE ABOUT TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE ONES FORMING TO THE WEST OF 45W ARE UP
FOR GRAB...AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE ISLAND CHAIN-PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

Interesting as far as any track for the trillion dollar storm

[ROCK]

0z GFS out...

150hrs

westward ho...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Ivanhater]

Further south this run so far

[Ivanhater]

216 hours in the Caribbean

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL....Guys....come on now. So this is the exact track of something that has yet to be named? Translation=Dallas Cowboys win the Super Bowl.

[Brent]

Out to sea but wow

[Derek Ortt]

thats not out to sea... it obliterates Santo Domingo!

[Scorpion]

Euro is fully on board

[Wx_Warrior]

Not -removed- or have any scientific data because we dont have a storm yet but something tells me my friends in Florida/EC could be dealing with something down the line.