Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[KWT]

Should be a yellow risk pretty soon I'd have thought, its current presentation is quite eye catching I have to admit...though I'd still be surprised if it developed with the current set-up just to its north...

However I am slightly more interested in it given the past 3-6hrs.

[xcool22]

yellow come soon

[ConvergenceZone]

This image updates every 15 minutes. Any member jumping on the developing bandwagon with only 12 hours after most of the convection emerged Africa or you prefer to wait a little longer?

I want to wait. It doesnt look as good as it did before imo

While I don't think it looks any better, I don't think it looks any worse either.

[cycloneye]

Luis you get the credit if it does develop and your not one to over hype a wave. I looked at the loops and I think there is potential because of the satellite presentation and because there is model support. I don't think the SAL will have a huge effect on this system. IMO, Code Yellow at 2am!

Exactly.You never will see hype on my part,only posting what occurs in real time.

[curtadams]

It looks good, but as so many others have pointed out, waves often look very good as they come off Africa. Over the next 2 days or so, the vast majority succumb to cooling ocean temps, SAL intrusions, the loss of land daytime support, or shear variations. All these factors are present here and so a poof is still very likely.

The GFS has a particular weakness for -removed- in the African monsoonal trough, so the model support is pretty flimsy. It's kind of like the CMC forecasting alone somewhere else.

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks good, but as so many others have pointed out, waves often look very good as they come off Africa. Over the next 2 days or so, the vast majority succumb to cooling ocean temps, SAL intrusions, the loss of land daytime support, or shear variations. All these factors are present here and so a poof is still very likely.

The GFS has a particular weakness for -removed- in the African monsoonal trough, so the model support is pretty flimsy. It's kind of like the CMC forecasting alone somewhere else.

At the very least, just the fact that it's holding together longer than the recent waves have, signals that we may be entering a transitional period where waves will gradually hold together longer and longer....

but you are right in that we may wake up tomorrow and it may be gone.

[thetruesms]

While this wave intrigues me more than most in its spot, I'm going to go ahead and set my alarm clock for something considerably further west.

[chzzdekr81]

Recent image up, convection slightly on the wane but the turning is VERY evident. We have a nice wave here there is no question about it.

In that loop it looks like there's some rotation....

[ConvergenceZone]

While the odds are in favor that it will poof overnight, it's a pre-curser of things to come.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow. I stepped away for 6 hours to a system that in all honesty is looking convectively better than it did before.


Bigtime potential for 97L

[chzzdekr81]

What's your thoughts wxman?

[KWT]

While this wave intrigues me more than most in its spot, I'm going to go ahead and set my alarm clock for something considerably further west.

Yeah, its a decent wave but as others have already said conditions aren't really that great down the line, though for now its not actually in a bad region for development considering everything.

[cycloneye]

NHC is waiting to see if convection persists longer and the wave axis emerge completly the coast to then start mentioning it in the TWO'S.

[cycloneye]

From the 8 PM EDT discussion, only a mention in the ITCZ paragrafh.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2349.shtml?

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 9N30W 5N41W 5N54W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 9N-12N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 7N-12N E OF 19W
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

[jlauderdal]

Luis you get the credit if it does develop and your not one to over hype a wave. I looked at the loops and I think there is potential because of the satellite presentation and because there is model support. I don't think the SAL will have a huge effect on this system. IMO, Code Yellow at 2am!

Exactly.You never will see hype on my part,only posting what occurs in real time.

except for the CAPITAL letters used sometimes,

[cycloneye]

The latest image on real time that updates every 15 minutes.

[RL3AO]

Impressive. Wouldn't be surprised to see it become a weak tropical storm before it is SAL-ed into oblivion.

[KWT]

Convection developing still with this wave, I think we will be looking at a lemon, short term conditions are good as long as it stays below 12-13N, once it gets above that level, its pretty much doomed.

[cycloneye]

We will have to wait for a better ASCAT pass because tonight's one missed any possible circulation.

[Weatherfreak000]

It has almost made it to 20W and still looks good. The GFS sees this developing a low fairly quickly. I eagerly await to see if the NHC decides to make mention of it.