Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[rockyman]

Looking at the 12z vs 18z, the main difference is that both this system and TD4 are stronger on the 18z. A stronger TD4 could help erode the ridge...that, combined with a stronger system here could explain the more northward turn.

12z:


18z:

[chzzdekr81]

Yeah, I think GFS does take it too far north. I think it could be another Alex.
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[KWT]

Actually that 12z run is somewhat close to what I think will happen and is very close to what most of the other 12z runs from the afternoon showed as well.

Of course you never quite know whether the GFS has picked up another trend and we won't know for another 48hrs because until then all models keep this area very weak.

[rockyman]

Anticyclone overhead:

[redfish1]

[quote="rockyman"]Anticyclone overhead:




i am new whats that mean??

[rockyman]

Formation aloft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclon ... ed_systems
The development of anticyclones aloft occurs in warm core cyclones, such as tropical cyclones, when latent heat caused by the formation of clouds is released aloft, which increases air temperatures and the resultant atmospheric thickness of the layer, which increases high pressure aloft which acts to evacuate their outflow.

An anticyclone aloft is a positive, if you're looking for development. Just remember...for a tropical storm, you want low pressure (cyclone) at the surface and high pressure (anticyclone) in the upper atmosphere.

[redfish1]

Formation aloft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclon ... ed_systems
The development of anticyclones aloft occurs in warm core cyclones, such as tropical cyclones, when latent heat caused by the formation of clouds is released aloft, which increases air temperatures and the resultant atmospheric thickness of the layer, which increases high pressure aloft which acts to evacuate their outflow.

An anticyclone aloft is a positive, if you're looking for development.

ok...thank you very much

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Believe if the eastern US trough does indeed drop far enough south and is as strong as forecast it will be able to leave enough of a weakness along the gulf states to pull a strenghtening system far enough north to get it into the southern gulf. Not saying it will happen, just has the potential to if trough is strong enough. IMO do not think the trough will be strong enough to even turn td4 out to sea as things look right now.

BTW here is this afternoons long ranage afd...
.LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND AS
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ON THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD
ALLOW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOWER H5 HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING POPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL,,,IN THE
30 TO 40 PCT RANGE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE ALSO FROM THE COMBINED
AFFECTS OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

Seems if this comes to fruition if something is in the west carib or southern gulf should get pulled north.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Are we going to put the medium/long range models runs for this potential system in this thread or the medium/long range model run thread? Thanks.

[rockyman]

18z GFDL for TD4 (notice our system nearing the Yucatan Channel):

[srainhoutx]

The Western Caribbean has had my eye for a while concerning development. Prime area for cyclogenesis IMO.

[CourierPR]

Are we witnessing a synoptic pattern evolution more like September/October here?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthFloridawx]

Can't believe you guys aren't all over this?

[chzzdekr81]

Can't believe you guys aren't all over this?

IMAGE

I was wondering the same thing... Everyone's more concerned with TD 4.

[HouTXmetro]

I think it was posted already right? or is this a new run?

[HouTXmetro]

I guess we need more model support first for a US threat.

[HURAKAN]

18z

[HURAKAN]

vorticity over water

[CYCLONE MIKE]

[quote="SouthFloridawx"]Can't believe you guys aren't all over this?



Think because all the attention is on td4 and this has just kind of snuck up on us. Also there is not much down there to get excited over right now either. If it becomes an invest in a day or two and has more model support it will be a much bigger news maker than td4.