"An active Atlantic hurricane period coming" - Jeff Masters

[Steve]

>>It's funny how the target(start date) keeps on moving up.
Anyway it's inevitable that we will see a spike just because
of the time of the year.

Has it not been August 20th or the latter part of August all along? Seriously. You can't go anymore by what posters on this site say then what they can go by what you say. You said it's not the script you understood, but you won't come out and say where the link, info or whatever is to what you're debunking. Come on man. I'm not in a fight over this. I want to understand. And by you dropping one-liner drive-by posts without ever addressing the sources or whatever, it's not proving that credible. Come on man.

[hurricaneCW]

Scientists are going to have a lot of explaining to do in regards to the season if the quiet keeps up because this is rather unprecedented. If those storms don't pan out, I don't think anything will.

[tolakram]

Scientists are going to have a lot of explaining to do in regards to the season if the quiet keeps up because this is rather unprecedented. If those storms don't pan out, I don't think anything will.

What kind of explaining? Busts are very exciting because they have great potential to produce new knowledge. If they could explain it they wouldn't have foretasted something different.

Does school start soon?

[fwbbreeze]

Scientists are going to have a lot of explaining to do in regards to the season if the quiet keeps up because this is rather unprecedented. If those storms don't pan out, I don't think anything will.

What kind of explaining? Busts are very exciting because they have great potential to produce new knowledge. If they could explain it they wouldn't have foretasted something different.

Does school start soon?

These scientists made a ...get this.... FORECAST based on the best information they had at the time. It's a FORECAST not an end all be all proclamation! I am pretty sure they explained at the begniing of the season the reasoning behind their conclusions. They don't owe you or anyone else an explanation if their FORECAST, based on good scientific information at the time, doesn't pan out. GEEZ

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm waiting to see what develops the rest of this month before I call it a "much slower than anticipated" season... If we only get 1 storm over the next 10 days, THEN I'll jump on that bandwagon....

[StormClouds63]

Scientists are going to have a lot of explaining to do in regards to the season if the quiet keeps up because this is rather unprecedented. If those storms don't pan out, I don't think anything will.

What kind of explaining? Busts are very exciting because they have great potential to produce new knowledge. If they could explain it they wouldn't have foretasted something different.

Does school start soon?

These scientists made a ...get this.... FORECAST based on the best information they had at the time. It's a FORECAST not an end all be all proclamation! I am pretty sure they explained at the begniing of the season the reasoning behind their conclusions. They don't owe you or anyone else an explanation if their FORECAST, based on good scientific information at the time, doesn't pan out. GEEZ

They're professionals. They're paid to make as accurate a forecast as possible. See your point, but inaccurate seasonal forecasting can lead to complacency. I really question the value of having seasonal forecasts at all. A busy season can produce systems w/little or no U.S. impact, while an inactive one can result in an Andrew-type storm.

[OuterBanker]

I don't even start to worry until late Aug to Mid Oct. Most of our landfalling storms are almost always after Labor Day. This is good because we live in an area that has the highest population in Aug. For instance most of our recent landfalls (with the exception of Bertha and Bonnie July storms) the rest have been in Sept. Interestingly both Fran and Floyd were named on Aug 23, both made landfall on the 5th. Isabel was named 9/6 landfall 9/17.

So all you naysayers just wait. It will get busy.

And to be honest I really don't want any landfalls at all. It's been a good year, hope it stays that way.

[UpTheCreek]

And to be honest I really don't want any landfalls at all. It's been a good year, hope it stays that way.

A BIG amen to that, brother......

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't even start to worry until late Aug to Mid Oct. Most of our landfalling storms are almost always after Labor Day. This is good because we live in an area that has the highest population in Aug. For instance most of our recent landfalls (with the exception of Bertha and Bonnie July storms) the rest have been in Sept. Interestingly both Fran and Floyd were named on Aug 23, both made landfall on the 5th. Isabel was named 9/6 landfall 9/17.

So all you naysayers just wait. It will get busy.

And to be honest I really don't want any landfalls at all. It's been a good year, hope it stays that way.

Again, OuterBanker, it's not whether or not it will get busy for awhile. I'm sure it will be busy sometime during the next 3 months. It's more a question of, will we hit the numbers that are forecasted....
naysayer = skeptical on hitting the high numbers that are foecasted.....

[hurricaneCW]

It does only take ONE. The biggest example of that is 1992, a quiet season that was made devastating by one Floridian monster.

[Stormcenter]

BINGO!!!!!!!!

Thank you.

I don't even start to worry until late Aug to Mid Oct. Most of our landfalling storms are almost always after Labor Day. This is good because we live in an area that has the highest population in Aug. For instance most of our recent landfalls (with the exception of Bertha and Bonnie July storms) the rest have been in Sept. Interestingly both Fran and Floyd were named on Aug 23, both made landfall on the 5th. Isabel was named 9/6 landfall 9/17.

So all you naysayers just wait. It will get busy.

And to be honest I really don't want any landfalls at all. It's been a good year, hope it stays that way.

Again, OuterBanker, it's not whether or not it will get busy for awhile. I'm sure it will be busy sometime during the next 3 months. It's more a question of, will we hit the numbers that are forecasted....
naysayer = skeptical on hitting the high numbers that are foecasted.....

[Patrick99]

I'm starting to believe the naysayers, slowly but surely. Despite several favorable factors, it just seems that there's something missing "out there" that is putting the damper on sustained convective development.

Even the daily afternoon thunderstorms around South Florida seem very stunted this year, to me. When they form, they seem to dissipate faster than usual.

Despite warm water, in many cases low shear, and not even that hefty of a SAL..........there just seems to be a certain spark that's lacking, somehow. Not sure what it is. Maybe like that one guy said, the continents have been too hot, too much rising air over land - and just have to cool off a bit.

[x-y-no]

They're professionals. They're paid to make as accurate a forecast as possible. See your point, but inaccurate seasonal forecasting can lead to complacency. I really question the value of having seasonal forecasts at all. A busy season can produce systems w/little or no U.S. impact, while an inactive one can result in an Andrew-type storm.

Well, I think a good argument can be made that these seasonal forecasts don't warrant anything like the publicity they get. But that doesn't mean there isn't great value in the ongoing effort to make such forecasts.

[ConvergenceZone]

Has wxman or any of the other mets on here given their opinion on what they think is going on?? I'm curious if they believe if it's about to get busy or not? or if they are sensing something just idoesn't seem right in the tropics?

[Steve]

Never mind.

[Pearl River]

People pay too much attention to the numbers. Lets take a look at a couple of seasons.

1961 - 11 storms - 2nd storm Betsy form on Sept 2 and there were 3 storms in a 9 day period.

1966 - 11 storms - 4 in July - 1 in August.

1967 - 8 storms - 1st storm Aug 28 - 5 storms in Sept, includes 1st storm carry over.

1923 - 7 storms - 1 Aug - 1 Sept - 5 Oct

What I'm getting at is some seasons don't get going until late and we have yet to hit the climatological peak of this season and you can have several storms in a 1 month period. How many seasons have we tracked more than 3 at a time? Several. The season is not over by no means.

[ConvergenceZone]

Pearl River,
if I was to take a blind stab at it right now, I would say 10 to 12 storms for this year sounds doable....
Another thing, those numbers you posted are way way too low then what a La Nina usually brings......As I've said numerous times before, nobody is saying the season is over...

If you think about it....

If the remainder of August, we can manage out storm #5 and #6
then for September(which may be more active than August) #7,#8, #9,
October #10 and #11, and perhaps storm #12 in either November or December...
In my opinion, I think to hit 12 though, we ned to get #5 and #6 in August, because we don't know when the
FALL season Troughs are going to start dipping down further and creating a hostile environment. If that happens,
then it's up to the Gulf and Carib to spit out those numbers....

[Pearl River]

hurricanecw wrote

Scientists are going to have a lot of explaining to do in regards to the season if the quiet keeps up because this is rather unprecedented. If those storms don't pan out, I don't think anything will.

Maybe from a scientific point it could be unprecedented because of the energy that is available, maybe not. There have been several seasons of 4 or less storms.

1914 - 1 1917 - 4 1919 - 3 1883 - 4 1972 - 4 Tropical systems. There were 3 ST systems 1983 - 4


In other words it does happen.

[KWT]

I'd imagine there'd be more then 3 in September, I'm personally thinking 5NS for September, I can't see us getting just 3 storms, I know conditions aren't amazing out there but there is enough out there to suggests a ramp up in September even though its likely not going to match the agencies expectations...

But it will get more active soon, I mean I'm pretty confident of a cat-2/3 in the Atlantic next week and if it recurves, well so be it but its still a storm...

[ConvergenceZone]

I'd imagine there'd be more then 3 in September, I'm personally thinking 5NS for September, I can't see us getting just 3 storms, I know conditions aren't amazing out there but there is enough out there to suggests a ramp up in September even though its likely not going to match the agencies expectations...

But it will get more active soon, I mean I'm pretty confident of a cat-2/3 in the Atlantic next week and if it recurves, well so be it but its still a storm...

KWT,what's confusing me is that nobody is talking about 2 storms anymore. Everyone seems to only be talking about 1 potentially developing.....Is that 2nd wave no longer suppose to develop??? What happened to the wave that looked like it was going to develop after the first wave?