Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[ColinDelia]

The 0z Euro looks like it has this develop out of a weak area of vorticity just a little to the east of the Windward islands now.
4 units on the Euro map.


No significant convection there currently.

Vorticity decreased there from 0z to 3z though.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

[ColinDelia]

Bird's eye view of 850 mb vorticity.

[ColinDelia]

Puerto Rico forecast Discussion

FOR SAT...MODELS
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF INDICATE A RAPID SURGE IN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH GFS SHOWS
BEST BUT KEEPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

[SETXWXLADY]

Sorry bout that didn't know there was a thread already. Just ignore the "blob at 60 west" thread. I don't know how to take it off. Anyway here's my two cents.

Hi hope I'm doing this right. I haven't seen a discussion on this if there is I'm sorry. Anyway having seen the last few runs of the ECMWF I've noticed they take a storm through the Caribbean and across the Yucatan. I couldn't tell what the catalyst for this storm was. But I think it is a wave? not sure what to call it, at 15/60ish. There seems to be some spinning evident on visible satellite.
The other models show varying versions of the outcome of this feature.
The NOGAPS takes it to the Bahamas
The GFS takes it into the Caribbean but with all the "L"s it gets confusing and they don't seem to develop it.
The CMC takes it directly north

It also is showing some 850 vort although I don't have a link for that.
Just curious if anyone has an opinion on any of these possible outcomes.
Thanks.

[ColinDelia]

850 mb vorticity at 10z.



Needs to increase vorticity and convection and break off from the ITCZ.

Milestones:
ECMWF has this very weak centered about Martinique but as an increasing area of vorticity (max 80 units) 36 hours from now.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS gets closer to doing something with this but just doesn't go all the way. The 850 mb vorticity increases some and heads off west but just not enough to get a TC going.

[Vortex]

NAM 00Z more agressive with each run...Nan did a superb job in forecasting Hermines pre-development...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

Interesting to note on the 6z hwrf run for 91 you can see this disturbance show up...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[BigA]

06 WRF also has a low forming in the general area, but I'm not sure how different the WRF is in terms of mathematical modeling from the HWRF.

[thetruesms]

06 WRF also has a low forming in the general area, but I'm not sure how different the WRF is in terms of mathematical modeling from the HWRF.

Which WRF? There are numerous variants being run all over the place.

[BigA]

06 WRF also has a low forming in the general area, but I'm not sure how different the WRF is in terms of mathematical modeling from the HWRF.

Which WRF? There are numerous variants being run all over the place.

I must admit that I know little about which one it is mathematically, but it can be found here. http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[Ivanhater]

Hey Colin,

I suspect we will see that area of limited vorticity flare up in about a day and start to increase in vorticity.

[Ivanhater]

06 Nam

[Macrocane]

Which WRF? There are numerous variants being run all over the place.

Does it matter? Is there a more reliable variant? I have to admit that I never look at that model so I don't know if it's good or not.

[Vortex]

12Z nam continues the trend...sure looks to get interesting.

[Vortex]

12Z NAM at H84





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[thetruesms]

Which WRF? There are numerous variants being run all over the place.

Does it matter? Is there a more reliable variant? I have to admit that I never look at that model so I don't know if it's good or not.

If you've ever looked at the NAM or the HWRF, you've looked at a variant of the WRF.

WRF was designed to be a highly customizable mesoscale model, and can be tweaked for the location desired and the computing power available. This page has links to a few of the uses of the WRF out there: http://wrf-model.org/plots/wrfrealtime.php

[Ivanhater]

Yep Vortex, 12z Nam organizes a cyclone moving through the Islands, the Euro takes this low and organizes it in the Central Caribbean

[Wx_Warrior]

I posted NAM yesterday and was laughed at!

[Vortex]

remember the nam did the same thing with hermine...