2012 EPAC season

[Cyclenall]

From the other thread:

I came here looking for the Epac seasonal forecast because every year it was the same thing...below average for the Epac. There is a brief statement in that article that says a normal Epac season is expected while a below normal Cpac season is expected. Finally, the first time that I can remember where it was not below normal!! I don't know what the reasoning for the Cpac is.

What is extremely puzzling is they gave a higher percent (30%) for the Epac having a below normal season then the Epac having an above normal hurricane season (20%)!!! They must not be on the Nino bandwagon like me. My prediction for the Epac is indifferent.

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd say there is 30% chance of any above normal season, and 20% of below normal season. FYI, 2009 was expected to be near normal. Either way, we are in a period of suppressed EPAC activity. Almost every ATL season in the 1970's and 1980s would have been like "below normal season expected". On the other hand, nearly every EPAC outlook would have been "above normal season expected".

[cycloneye]

After the early activity by Aletta and Bud,it looks like a lull on activity for the EPAC looms for the next two to three weeks as the models dont show nothing on the pipe.

[Kingarabian]

After the early activity by Aletta and Bud,it looks like a lull on activity for the EPAC looms for the next two to three weeks as the models dont show nothing on the pipe.

Gotta find something else to keep me occupied then .

[Yellow Evan]

Ugh, I hate EPAC lulls. Meh, at least it gives me so study time for exams.

[brunota2003]

Season cancel!

[Yellow Evan]

OMG what is happening to the season. Well, less than 365 days till 2013.

[cycloneye]

The global tropical hazards site has the EPAC for Tropical Cyclone formation after the 13 of June as the models already are picking up.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[Yellow Evan]

So, here we go again!

[Kingarabian]

I love fish.

[Cyclenall]

The models are trending towards closed lows around that area after 120 hours. The Euro and NOGAPS show this.

I love fish.

I love fish to eat.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, it is fishspinner time of the year for the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Yeah, it is fishspinner time of the year for the EPAC.

But the models after the 15th have future Carlotta making landfall in Mexico.

[Cyclenall]

But the models after the 15th have future Carlotta making landfall in Mexico.

Wow, that might be a major hurricane the (King) Euro is showing. Was that the first run that showed this strength? Yellow Evan, Kingarabian, and Macrocane, our Epac boredom will soon come to an end.

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,is the first run of that intensity by Euro.

[Yellow Evan]

But the models after the 15th have future Carlotta making landfall in Mexico.

Wow, that might be a major hurricane the (King) Euro is showing. Was that the first run that showed this strength? Yellow Evan, Kingarabian, and Macrocane, our Epac boredom will soon come to an end.

Cool, too bad it will affect Mexico though.

[Yellow Evan]

Link to model runs site thingy?

[cycloneye]

Link to model runs site thingy?

Link to Euro.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

Link to GFS.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... L+GUIDANCE

[Kingarabian]

But the models after the 15th have future Carlotta making landfall in Mexico.

Wow, that might be a major hurricane the (King) Euro is showing. Was that the first run that showed this strength? Yellow Evan, Kingarabian, and Macrocane, our Epac boredom will soon come to an end.

Roger that!

[Yellow Evan]

Link to model runs site thingy?

Link to Euro.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

Link to GFS.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... L+GUIDANCE

Okay, thanks.