NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

This the Buoy in the BOC
Conditions at 42055 as of
(6:50 am CDT)
1150 GMT on 06/05/2012:

Wind Direction (WDIR):

SE ( 140 deg true )



Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):

1007.4 mb





Pressure Tendency (PTDY):

+0.0 mb ( Steady

That's a 4.5 mb drop. over this time yesterday. also the NAM is hinting at a weak low forming in central GOM tomorrow and washing out on the the 8th.

actually that is significant. looking at visible this morning there seems to be decent low to mid level turning and a little more curvature. but shear is high ( although aiding convection atm). 00z models all seem to indicate a low forming from this area in the next 48 hours then moves it across the panhandle. how tropical it ends up being will be interesting... shear is not forecast to be favorable in the area for a few more days.


vorticity increasing quite bit from yesterday

[rockyman]

The satellite is looking very interesting this morning. While it's obvious there's a ton of shear, the area to the northwest of the Yucatan is getting that "candle in the wind" look to it.

[Aric Dunn]

So far from all the phase diagrams it seems it will be a hybrid at best. but only time will tell.

[Frank2]

Perhaps time for it to be mentioned in the TWO:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

good outflow seen on IR...

Frank

[tolakram]

I don't see much of anything.

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Zoomed out: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Low over Alabama and the one over Texas look better

[Frank2]

Oops - sorry for the hot link in my previous post...

Nothing in today's POD or the latest TWO - just more good rain for Florida...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

there definitely seems to be a weak low forming. just have to see what happens.

[cycloneye]

Aric,It will be interesting to see if that MSC in the Rio Grande Valley emerges into the GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,I will be interesting to see if that MSC in the Rio Grande Valley emerges into the GOM.

[img]http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/6901/rgbv.jpg[/mg]

yeah I noticed that too. interesting little feature.

[TexasF6]

Looks like low pressure is trying to get some muster around 92 & 26.5 ish? Anyone else see that?

[Aric Dunn]

something starting to develop ( tropical or not) vorticity has come up a lot today.

12 hours ago




now

[Aric Dunn]

after looking at satellite and surface obs it appears a weak low has formed at about 25N 91W. Although it is probably going not exactly tropical..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[NDG]

after looking at satellite and surface obs it appears a weak low has formed at about 25N 91W. Although it is probably going not exactly tropical..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

Yeah, I agree with you about the location of what appears to be a weak COC.
Not sure if it will survive all that shear.
Pressures have really lowered all across the GOM this afternoon to note.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=If any of you are interested to see the Venus transit in front of the sun,go to geology forum at this thread. The next time this will happen again will be in 2117.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=112862&hilit=&p=2227867#p2227867

[ROCK]

vorticity or not there is no low level convergence, if anything this is in the mid-levels plus its surrounded by 30-40knts for shear.....aint nothing going to stack in that but FL is going to see some rain.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

vorticity or not there is no low level convergence, if anything this is in the mid-levels plus its surrounded by 30-40knts for shear.....aint nothing going to stack in that but FL is going to see some rain.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

those maps are to be taken as guidance not absolutes. clearly we have some serious convection in that area and if you go back a few frames you see that convergence was higher. not saying this will develop it is likely going to be non tropical.

[ROCK]

maybe so but seriously there is no model support currently....unless you count the NAM,,,

[northjaxpro]

8:00 p.m. NHC TWD notes that surface trough will remain about stationary in the western Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 48 hours. Should the convection can persist and if the shear can slack off some later this week. the BOC or Western GOM may need to be watched late this week. Also, must wait to see if more of the reliable models show any semblence of development in that area in the coming days.



THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AMPLE MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO
DUE TO DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AND ERN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MEXICO
AND SW TEXAS. THIS PATTERN PROVIDES MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN AND IS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO DOT MUCH OF FLORIDA ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS
AND STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA
AS WELL AS THE NE MEXICO COAST. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N91W TO 30N94W. THIS MAY BE
ENHANCING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE AXIS. THE FAR WRN GULF
IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE BASIN DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY IN THE WRN GULF FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MOIST CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR

[NDG]

Models don't show much slacking of the windshear on the GOM until at least early next week, 18z GFS might have the right idea.

[Aric Dunn]

well this morning we clearly have a elongated circ ( naked atm) and the MLC/ MSC moved offshore yesterday in that area and shear did drop some from yesterday still 20 kt though. the low is stuck in a bit of a col right now. still dont expect much but its has s small chance if it starts accelerating in the direction of the shear.