Weak Surface Low in Western GOM - Yellow-20% (Is 94L)

[MGC]

Quite a fetch of moisture streaming out of the GOM. So much for heading to the beach this weekend. Until that trough lifts out the shear will remain high preventing any TC formation.....MGC

[LaBreeze]

When is the trough expected to lift?

[tailgater]

When is the trough expected to lift?

if I'm reading it right the GFS thinks Sat. and Sun.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs090hr_300_wnd.gif

[tailgater]

Insane rain here at my house just east of Destin, FL. We're pushing 8 inches so far today already. Winds are gusting 20-25mph range.

Not hard to pick out the low now. Stay safe over ther in sunny Florida.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

Panama City Beach is getting hammered.....

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/panamacity/

[cycloneye]

Interesting wording even with still the 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. WHILE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles are clustered with a weak tropical system along the Middle TX/SW Louisiana Coast in about 84 hours.

[vbhoutex]

Insane rain here at my house just east of Destin, FL. We're pushing 8 inches so far today already. Winds are gusting 20-25mph range.

My mom in Niceville said it rained all day yesterday. I just looked at radar and it looks like Niceville is dry right now while you are getting pounded.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Dean I will gladly take some of that 8"+ over here. Our front yard is beginning to like a desert. Brown dead grass and cracks running across parts of the ground. Calling for rain this weekend but don't have my hopes up. Forecasts have been busting left and right around here the past few weeks.

[tropicwatch]

Panama City has had over 10" of rain in the last 36 hours as of an hour ago. Looks like the train of rain will continue into the evening hours. Many road closures in Bay County and Panama City.

[Rgv20]

Hopefully we get some much needed rain out of this Tropical Wave..

NWS Brownsville Afternoon Discussion

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A NORMAL JULY PATTERN AS THE 500MB
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND LIFTS STEADILY NORTHEAST. AS
THE WESTERLIES RETREAT THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES MOVE IN BRINGING IN
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COASTAL REACHES AS SURFACE WINDS TURN EAST AND DEEPEN. SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ADDED FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE. THE REAL SURGE TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY AS
PWATS CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS PATH AND
TIMING TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. DIFFERENCES RESIDE ON STRENGTH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
OPEN AND ECMWF IS TRENDING WITH A CLOSE LOW OVER NUEVO LEON. THE
DEEPER LOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THESE TROPICAL TROUGHS USUALLY REMAIN OPEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER THEY MOVE INLAND. POP GUIDANCE ALSO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO
WITH ECMWF MORE BULLISH WITH THE POPS THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST
CHANGES TO INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ACTS ON IT.
POPS DROP OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ON
ITS WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM THE CWA.

[Dean4Storms]

Dean I will gladly take some of that 8"+ over here. Our front yard is beginning to like a desert. Brown dead grass and cracks running across parts of the ground. Calling for rain this weekend but don't have my hopes up. Forecasts have been busting left and right around here the past few weeks.

Hopefully you guys catch some from this wave and possible tropical low forming.

Rain has pushed east of me now Thank God, my backyard became a river. Expecting it to pivot back westward overnight and NCEP is saying another 10 inches in our neck of the woods.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Extratropical94]

What's the record for the most consecutive 10% outlooks for an area of interest?

[KatDaddy]

I dont see much if any development with the ongoing shear across the GOM. However there will be a heavy rain threat for SE TX.

[wxman57]

What's the record for the most consecutive 10% outlooks for an area of interest?

This is a different disturbance. The first one moved ashore into the FL Panhandle yesterday.

[djmikey]

Ok, now Im confused. Why does NWS Corpus show this low moving inland south of Corpus and NWS Houston shows the low moving inland around Galveston? How can two NWS locations side by side show something so different? Is it coming onshore near Corpus or Houston? Im confused!



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[jeff]

The upper level low or trough will move inland over S TX while any "surface reflection" will move inland along the upper TX coast.

[Ntxw]

Continues to look pretty unorganized this morning. As long as EPAC system continues to develop looks unlikely anything substantial will happen in the near future with this feature.