Tropical Wave East of 90L emerging West Africa (is 91L)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The biggest issue for this wave will be dry air, and even this shouldn't be *as much* of a problem as it has been for preceding waves. That said, a strong convectively-suppressed kelvin wave is currently passing over the wave, which may slow development. Shear shouldn't be an issue going forward as upper-level ridging remains across the East Atlantic. The ECMWF...as always...is probably too conservative with development, while the GFS...as always...is probably too bullish with development. I think this will develop into a tropical storm by days 4-5.

[SFLcane]

impressive for sure..

[Hurricaneman]

A good possible analog storm which would bother no body and would be very picturesque would be Katia and quite frankly I think this system could be very similar in intensity and track in the long run based on how it looks coming off of Africa and not poofing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[weatherfanatic]

Hurricane man I remember that one, I had just finished with Irene here in NY and was like oh man that one is headed this way too. But it turned, one was enough lol. Way too early to say but models do take that trek across ocean rather then south.

[Riptide]

0z GFS caves to the Euro for the most part except for intensity. Underrated AEW here.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is interesting in that this gets to about 21 to 22N and heads staight west from 168 to 192hrs as the Ridge builds in, how far west it gets will probably be detirmined by this very ridge

As of now I'm predicting a recurve around 55W but I am leaving the door open to this coming farther west than that as both the Euro and 0zGFS show

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Siker]

Hmmm, pretty significant timing difference on the 00z GFS vs. previous runs:

00z:


18z:


Still recurves though, ridge melts.

[weatherfanatic]

Is it feasible for the ridge to just dissolve like that? There was a earlier post I think in past day or two where it got much closer to the US and basically looked to have nowhere to go but head-on into the northern East Coast. Is this at all a possibility or totally out there?

[Hurricaneman]

Hmmm, pretty significant timing difference on the 00z GFS vs. previous runs:

00z:


18z:


Still recurves though, ridge melts.

the ridge melts after truncation so IMO I'm starting to think there may be additional shifts west based on this and what will the Euro show as that could be more interesting like the last few runs of the Euro have a ridge that doesn't completely collapse like the GFS which after truncation loves to break down ridges

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[JonathanBelles]

This is 91L

[Fego]

Lets the models run! I wonder what the UKMT will show in terms of path and the ridge.

[weatherfanatic]

Yes we have 91L did anyone else notice the big mix up on the graphic and explanation on NHC? I hope it gets fixed, I am sure just a computer error, strange though. 91L has 20/60 now and I imagine judging from I have seen the way things are done here you will be starting a new thread?

[Fego]

Did they fix it? because I don't see any error, but sure I can be wrong. What it is/was about?

[Yellow Evan]

I know the mods are asleep, but when they get up, may this thread by locked? Thanks in advance.

[AJC3]

This thread has been locked as the area is now Invest 91L. Go here to discuss... viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116714