Tropical wave emerging West Africa (Is Invest 90L)

[CrazyC83]

Now at 10%50%.
A tropical wave located inland over western Africa is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This wave is expected
to move offshore tonight and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

That suggests they should tag it as 90L soon. At least after it moves offshore.

[tolakram]

GFS is biting on this wave now, way out past 192 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

Will likely be future Gaston and this one actually has support from the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

Has a hefty ridge sitting firm directly to it's north @ 216hrs., looks Carolina bound.

[gatorcane]

Heading west at hour 240

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa continues
to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This wave
is expected to move offshore tonight and environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development. This system is likely
to become a tropical depression by mid-week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has it the strongest of its runs since Tue as of hour 72.

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

Has a hefty ridge sitting firm directly to it's north @ 216hrs., looks Carolina bound.

The ridge also backs along the SE coast there, so that looks a system that will stall out. Much like Felix 1995.

[chaser1]

I think its going to be very intersting in seeing how all Global modeling figures out whether or not any weakness actually develops over the NE US during the span of the upcoming 10 days. I mean this new pouch 22L isn't even an invest yet, but there seems such strong model support for it and one can't easily ignore climotology either. This wasn't the year that most thought we'd see long trackers developing and threatening the U.S. from the E. Atlantic (nor does the EURO believe this will occur either), but I'm starting to think that this system might track more to the south than the present NHC cone is indicating.

[Kazmit]

I'm surprised this isn't an invest yet. Looks like a potential threat to Bermuda or the Carolinas as stated above.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks to be heading OTS on the 18z GFS east of the last run.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with another tropical wave,
is moving off the coast of Senegal in western Africa while producing
a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while the system moves
westward and then northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L is up