Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[abajan]

Definite Buzz about this one folks! Not just here; But everywhere else I've checked as well!

That's somewhat disconcerting.

[blp]

Majority of Ensembles don't support NIcaragua landfall. The ones that do assume a weak storm. So the land interaction will play big part obviously.

[Fego]

I wonder if it will appear on the 8 PM TWO. We'll know shortly.
EDIT: It doesn't.

Ummm, TWO covers five days and whatever shows up from this pouch won't be developed by the fifth day, imho, so no TWO may be until the 24th, "IF" the GFS is verified.

[gatorcane]

A lot of GFS ensembles take a pretty strong system up into Cuba and South Florida in the long-range, how the run ends at 384 hours below:

[Hurricaneman]

A lot of GFS ensembles take a pretty strong system up into Cuba and South Florida in the long-range, how the run ends at 384 hours below:

The op run of the gfs seems to be the ensemble that's farthest south, goes against its ensembles

[blp]

Interesting tweet. We could have a Hadley Cell that might aid this being so far south.


[Tweet]
4h4 hours ago
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
@pppapin @AndyHazelton @EricBlake12 Octobers can flip the Atlantic Hadley Cell on a dime. If this pattern pans out, Caribbean gets favorable
Embedded image[/Tweet]

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting tweet. We could have a Hadley Cell that might aid this being so far south.


[Tweet]
4h4 hours ago
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
@pppapin @AndyHazelton @EricBlake12 Octobers can flip the Atlantic Hadley Cell on a dime. If this pattern pans out, Caribbean gets favorable
Embedded image[/Tweet]

What is a Hadley Cell?

[abajan]

Interesting tweet. We could have a Hadley Cell that might aid this being so far south.


[Tweet]
4h4 hours ago
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
@pppapin @AndyHazelton @EricBlake12 Octobers can flip the Atlantic Hadley Cell on a dime. If this pattern pans out, Caribbean gets favorable
Embedded image[/Tweet]

What is a Hadley Cell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rsdxn70pSG4

[BigB0882]

Should Louisiana be worried about this at all? I know it is way far out but from what I have learned, it is pretty darn hard for a storm to get into the Gulf and make it as far west as Louisiana during October. Seems storms either continue heading due west or hook sharply which take them to Florida. Even a storm making it quite far west in the gulf can hook and still go to Florida due to geography of the land/gulf.

[cajungal]

Should Louisiana be worried about this at all? I know it is way far out but from what I have learned, it is pretty darn hard for a storm to get into the Gulf and make it as far west as Louisiana during October. Seems storms either continue heading due west or hook sharply which take them to Florida. Even a storm making it quite far west in the gulf can hook and still go to Florida due to geography of the land/gulf.

Not yet. I would actually wait and see if any storm actually forms. I live in Louisiana too. Lili hit Oct 3rd. But yes Louisiana Oct storms are rare, Florida usually gets them.

[SFLcane]

In 2016 likely weak system into CA until I see a bonified TC sorry not buying into it. Bla bla GFS

[stormlover2013]

We'll ridge looks pretty strong in the se on 18z run that's going to be the story here and also if a front or trough comes

[Hurricaneman]

Wave starts to leave africa at 36hrs on the 0zGFS

[Hurricaneman]

like previous runs it seems to start to come together around 40W

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hurricaneman]

at 186 crashes into south america

at 192 the low relocates with the 500mb center

[Hurricaneman]

at 198 it seems like it matches the location with the 12zrun if not just a tad like 5miles north at the same time

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a major hurricane in the yucatan channel at 360hrs

[cycloneye]

00z GFS run ends this way.

[Hurricaneman]

Central Gulf at the end of the run, could extrapolate to maybe a panhandle of Florida landfall but that is a long way off and will change many times

[USTropics]

210 hours, the 00z GFS operational has P39L a tad bit more north then the past 4 runs on it's approach by SA. I don't see any significant land interaction on this run.



The 00z GFS hasn't pushed back the development time, but it does have P39L spending a significantly longer duration in the Caribbean. Eventually this clips the Yucatan Peninsula at 360 hours:



We're talking way too far out to take into realistic consideration, buy P39L is sitting in the central GOM at the end of the run.