Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa (INVEST 99L is up)

[Alyono]

Surprise. Gfs turns it north. Always too far north when there is a strong ridge

[RL3AO]

Looks like it will escape this time. Ridge wasn't able to build westward soon enough. You guys enjoy the discussion the rest of the evening.

[Kingarabian]

Back to a TS east of Florida. Typically this is where systems RI.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs has been bad

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it will escape this time. Ridge wasn't able to build westward soon enough. You guys enjoy the discussion the rest of the evening.

Maybe the Euro follows suit.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS keeps system TS/Cane through 240 hours whereas the 12z Euro has a very weak TD/TS at best through 240 hours, hence maybe the more southerly track for the 12z Euro. Seems old reliable trough has perfect timing once again, but I won't say it's a pattern.

[Kingarabian]

Surprise. Gfs turns it north. Always too far north when there is a strong ridge

Right? The trough hasn't dug deep enough and is still sitting in land over NE America yet it's moving north with a ridge in place.

[wxmann_91]

The fact that the GFS is OTS at this early juncture is a bad sign for Florida.



(just in case if anyone takes this seriously... /s)

[SFLcane]

Surprise. Gfs turns it north. Always too far north when there is a strong ridge

I get what your saying..but there is clearly a deep Trof on the GFS recurving the cyclone. Abviously fantasy land

[AutoPenalti]

Umm, that ridge seems rather strong for a TS to penetrate through that and on top of that there seems to be no trough dipping down far enough to cause a weakness...

[Alyono]

That drop in intensity is resolution drop

[RL3AO]

Surprise. Gfs turns it north. Always too far north when there is a strong ridge

It's not easy to get a TC forming east of 40W to threaten the US. There could be signs of the pattern that supports it during the next couple weeks. We will see over the next 10+ days.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS has close call for NY... Not a quick recurve...

[RL3AO]

Guys, don't use MSLP maps to determine the steering patterns. Use 500mb.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guys, don't use MSLP maps to determine the steering patterns. Use 500mb.

You can clearly see the weakness that pulls the system north out by 40N and 60W.

[TheStormExpert]

Back to a TS east of Florida. Typically this is where systems RI.

That's actually a hurricane, but since it is after 10 days (240hrs.) the resolution decreases.

[RL3AO]

Guys, don't use MSLP maps to determine the steering patterns. Use 500mb.

You can clearly see the weakness that pulls the system north out by 40N and 60W.

There's a few key differences between the 12z and 18z GFS. The big one is the entire mid-latitude pattern is slower. This means the N Atlantic ridge is trough which means the ridge expands westward slower. It also shows the trough over the US actually is stronger and slower during the 18z run. So instead of the ridge expanding westward as that trough moves eastward above it, the ridge over the NE becomes more amplified in response to the stronger US trough. This means more northward flow and the NE impact you see in the 18z GFS. It's never simple!

[TheStormExpert]

Also interesting to note that the GFS keeps it mostly a Cat.1 2 through the 1st 10 days. Signs that conditions are not exactly favorable. Typically we would see the GFS bombing out.

That was expected from the old GFS which loved to bombout every other wave that left Africa it seemed. This new GFS may very well be conservative as we may have seen.

[TheStormExpert]

Umm, that ridge seems rather strong for a TS to penetrate through that and on top of that there seems to be no trough dipping down far enough to cause a weakness...

Yeah it sure does, but as I said on the previous page the GFS (at the least the old one) is notorious for breaking down ridges or sending storms straight into them. I guess we will see if this is the case again here in coming days.

[wxmann_91]

Also interesting to note that the GFS keeps it mostly a Cat.1 2 through the 1st 10 days. Signs that conditions are not exactly favorable. Typically we would see the GFS bombing out.

That was expected from the old GFS which loved to bombout every other wave that left Africa it seemed. This new GFS may very well be conservative as we may have seen.

Actually if anything the new GFS tends to be more bullish with TC's. This is likely going to be a small storm, and global models tend to underestimate the central pressures of small storms in low latitudes. (Conversely, they tend to overestimate the central pressures of larger storms in higher latitudes.) Either way, don't put any stock into those values for now.