Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands (Invest 93L is up)

[cycloneye]

@RaleighWx
Am also really curious with system emerging off Africa. Euro has it 21N/63W by day 10. Plenty time to watch, but could get decently far west

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/901901006015000576

[TheStormExpert]

With a +NAO expected to continue into the beginning of September, this could argue that more ridging is more likely along the U.S. East Coast within the next 2 weeks.

[gatorcane]

Every global model we have is developing this wave now. Expect development chances to increase by NHC.

Could be a long-tracker Cape Verde storm generating lots of ACE. Looks like it is going to be something significant down the road looking at the loop over Africa where it is about ready to make the splash:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[blp]

Every global model we have is developing this wave now. Expect development chances to increase by NHC.

Could be a long-tracker Cape Verde storm generating lots of ACE. Looks like it is going to be something significant down the road looking at the loop over Africa where it is about ready to make the splash:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Gator, that is an impressive Wave. I think NHC might need to up the percentage and move cone further toward the E. Atlantic.

[NDG]

IMO, this tropical wave does indeed have a good chance of surviving the middle of the Atlantic, NASA model shows very little SAL to go along with it.
Almost non existent.

Now:


Seven days from now:

[nativefloridian]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That trough has not failed Fl in 12+ years, no reason to think it won't be in place just in time this season as well... I believe there has been an overall pattern change keeping system well E of SE Conus... I'm sure the pattern will change at some point, but it doesn't seem like this season will be any differen... JMHO

What 12+ year pattern? 2004 saw Frances and Jeanne strike in exact same locations along the East-Central Florida coast in September. Not to mention we just had a Cat.4 Hurricane Harvey devastate and cripple Texas.

....and Katrina in 2005.

[cycloneye]

Euro ensembles.One tracks over me in PR.Can't post image as is a paid site.

[RL3AO]

Ventrice posted the 12z Euro ensembles.

[TheStormExpert]

What does he mean by "we are likely peaking in activity"?

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: What does he mean by "we are likely peaking in activity"?

He may still be putting too much emphasis on the MJO. Not sure.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: What does he mean by "we are likely peaking in activity"?

He may still be putting too much emphasis on the MJO. Not sure.

That's what I figured.

[KWT]

18z GFS has a brief Fujiwara with a vort around 144hrs and then starts a recurve quite far east like the CMC 12z run.

Hard to put much faith though when it develops a little weak area of lower pressure.

My guess is by 216hrs it'll be closer to 55W than 45W where the GFS because of that bogus looking fujiwara it has going on.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Blown Away]

Wave coming off high, likely recurve before bothering any land... Bermuda always in play...

[AubreyStorm]

Wave coming off high, likely recurve before bothering any land... Bermuda always in play...

Maybe missing PR?

[AutoPenalti]

Wave coming off high, likely recurve before bothering any land... Bermuda always in play...

Seems fairly low latitude if you ask me.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wave coming off high, likely recurve before bothering any land... Bermuda always in play...

Likely is a strong word for a wave that hasn't even emerged off Africa yet.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wave coming off high, likely recurve before bothering any land... Bermuda always in play...

Bold statement for a wave JUST splashing down. We have no idea where this one goes yet..

[ColdMiser123]

Ominous look on the Euro Ensembles. A substantial number bring this close to the east coast, with very deep disturbances.

Mind posting a link to them?

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/901963797182763008

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/901964044931883009