Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[northjaxpro]

According to the 18Z GFS earlier, GFS develops the vorticity in the Central Bahamas by 0Z tomorrow evening. So watch the Central Bahamas region very carefully from now through the day tomorrow to watch to see if any low level circulation tries to close off.

[northjaxpro]

NHC in their 8 p.m. tropical weather outlook this evening stated that ship reports just off the Southeast coast of Florida and around the Central Bahamas have reported wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph in squalls around this disturbance. This is quite impressive, even with the pressure gradient with those type of winds occuring down there this evening. There have been some deep convection down in that region all afternoon.

NHC still only going 10% right now, despite what the 18Z GFS was depicting. Well, if GFS 0Z run later this evening ends up still showing this developing, NHC has to raise percentages would you all think? Interesting...

How far to the. East is this from south fl could the odds go up at 5 am if it still has time to form ?

The percentages very well could increase by tomorrow. As I mentioned in my post just above, watch the Central Bahamas region to see if we get a possible LLC to develop. That is what to watch the next 12-24 hours in the immediate short term.

[chaser1]

NHC in their 8 p.m. tropical weather outlook this evening stated that ship reports just off the Southeast coast of Florida and around the Central Bahamas have reported wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph in squalls around this disturbance. This is quite impressive, even with the pressure gradient with those type of winds occuring down there this evening. There have been some deep convection down in that region all afternoon.

NHC still only going 10% right now, despite what the 18Z GFS was depicting. Well, if GFS 0Z run later this evening ends up still showing this developing, NHC has to raise percentages would you all think? Interesting...

Hmmm, you're right. One would think that out of respect to the GFS AND WRF (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0) 999mb low forecasted over the Florida straits, that a bit more attention might be considered for this wave. Especially in light of the King tides and likelihood of pretty gusty winds in some of the fast moving squalls.

[boca]

It looks like the tropical wave is stationary over the Bahamas?

[northjaxpro]

It looks like the tropical wave is stationary over the Bahamas?

Yeah, well, remember we have yet to initialize a LLC to track. However, the overall area of convection in the Central Bahamas has not moved much throughout the afternoon. The TW axis itself extends from the Central Bahamas south through Cuba into the Caribbean Sea.

But, I have a weird feeling about this system. We already have had ship reports with east winds gusting to 40-50 mph out in the Bahamas late this afternoon. Shear was analyzed up in the 20-30 knot range earlier today over the region. We know there is a strong pressure gradient with HP building down as well, but this system could surprise , especially with much of the focus with many on 90L currently.
.

[boca]

Do you think the system will ultimately make a move towards Florida?

[northjaxpro]

Do you think the system will ultimately make a move towards Florida?

If it develops like the GFS is modeling it to do the next few days, yes, the steering would move it west-northwest across the Florida Straits into extreme South Florida Friday. GFS forecasts the system to emerge into the GOM by Friday morning.

[gatorcane]

I think dev chances should be more like 30-40% range. The GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM show some weak development. The GEFS has a number of ensemble members showing some weak development too.

[floridasun78]

miami weather man say we see strong wind on wed night and thur morning and their here in miami Craig Setzer say

[floridasun78]

what i dont get that nws say passing tonight when i see big area in bahamas wont pass untill wed night

[joey]

what i dont get that nws say passing tonight when i see big area in bahamas wont pass untill wed night

maybe they will move the yellow x further east or it even looks like a stall as the gfs shows it ai 42 plus hours heading to the mainland

[hurricanehunter69]

The general public does not recognize ( high pressure gradient ) like we do. all they know is that this system has very strong winds ( 40 to 50 mph ) associated with it. I'm impressed with the systems deep convection and confident that the shear will slacken just enough for this storm to get a name. Look for the NHC to start increasing percentage chances sometime tomorrow.

[floridasun78]

look wont chance because going over south fl by wed night unless get stronger quick

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

00z GFS looks to be backing off from this system.

[boca]

It looks like the system is getting better organized but NHC is giving this a 0 for development.

[joey]

It looks like the system is getting better organized but NHC is giving this a 0 for development.

And the 06z brought it back again 30 hours over se fl

[northjaxpro]

Looks to me that there may be a spin in the making near the vicinity of Andros Island. Probably mid-level, but it appears to me some spin is developing there.

[boca]

It looks like it's developing even though probably in the mid levels I think the NHC needs to raise their numbers

[Steve H.]

In my mind this is developing. I am currently more concerned with this area than the area in the SW Caribbean. CoC is moving slowly just north of the coast of Cuba. Should be an Invest in the next 8 -12 hours IMO. Shear has relaxed in this area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[northjaxpro]

For some reason, the NHC has been very slow, in my view, have been greatly underestimating this system. I posted a couple of times about this already on this thread.

Well, no doubt in my mind that there is a circulation developing just south of Andros Island. There is no avoiding this now. This should have been an invest yesterday. I think we will get a possible moderate TS from this.

Yesterday there were reports of gusts to 50 mph from ship reports, and I have not checked yet this morning, but I would bet there are similar reports out in the Central Bahamas this morning.

I would be paying a bit more attention to this system for those living in South Florida the next couple of days.