Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[floridasun78]

season can wait June 1 we no hurry to early start season because aug we see alot sleepless night like 2017

[CyclonicFury]

Interesting, GFS sends this into Georgia...

[USTropics]

00z GFS and ECMWF not too far off from each other in solutions and timing. ECMWF has a bit more of a weaker system, with multiple areas of vorticity along a stretched axis that extends towards the GOM. The end result is a more westward solution compared to the GFS, with the core area of consolidation occurring over FL.

00z GFS:


00z ECMWF:

[Kazmit]

06z run is more west, and weaker.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS has a slow moving, sheared tropical cyclone moving north, directly over the entire Florida peninsula during the Memorial weekend, from hour 192 -228 hours. It does deepen the system to 993 mb over North Florida during hour 210. It then meanders over South Georgia by 234 hours as a 998 mb cyclone.

Potential dangerous flooding event could happen over peninsula if this track.pans out, along with potential of tornadoes.

[Dean4Storms]

0z ECM EPS still at 30% chance of TS between 25th and 27th in the Eastern GOM. The Ensembles seem to be further westward with the North tracking Low than the 00z ECM OP.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Climo says west. I've seen this a 100 times. By the time we get within 96 hrs. Whatever forms. Models will trend west. Just my opinion of what models trend as we get closer in hours.

[northjaxpro]

It will depend on if we get some mid-level ridging to shift the cyclone more westward as time progresses. We will watch for this with future runs.

[AJC3]

Climo says west. I've seen this a 100 times. By the time we get within 96 hrs. Whatever forms. Models will trend west. Just my opinion of what models trend as we get closer in hours.

Keep in mind that there isn't a whole lot of May 21-31 genesis climo to go by here - only five systems of at least TS strength are known to have formed in the WCARIB and SE GOMEX (between 13-23N and 80-88W) during that 10 day period since 1851. So most (if not all) of your '100 times' fell much later in the season, when climatological tracks do go farther west.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z TC Genesis Probabilities via the Ensembles increased to 50% chance of TC genesis in the NW Caribbean Sea within 120 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

The 00Z TC Genesis Probabilities via the Ensembles increased to 50% chance of TC genesis in the NW Caribbean Sea within 120 hours.

This the GFS Ensembles?

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn’t expect more than a weak sheared messy TS coming from this with multiple vortices competing for one.

[gatorcane]

Climo says west. I've seen this a 100 times. By the time we get within 96 hrs. Whatever forms. Models will trend west. Just my opinion of what models trend as we get closer in hours.

Keep in mind that there isn't a whole lot of May 21-31 genesis climo to go by here - only five systems of at least TS strength are known to have formed in the WCARIB and SE GOMEX (between 13-23N and 80-88W) during that 10 day period since 1851. So most (if not all) of your '100 times' fell much later in the season, when climatological tracks do go farther west.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/may_21_31.png

The models are definitely detecting some kind of pattern that would turn the system NNE or NE once in the NW Caribbean. For example, the latest 06Z GEFS animation from hours 78 to 192 shows this well, but, we are still far enough out that I agree they can shift back into the Gulf:

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z TC Genesis Probabilities via the Ensembles increased to 50% chance of TC genesis in the NW Caribbean Sea within 120 hours.

This the GFS Ensembles?

NCEP/ECMWF/CMC suite of ensembles.

[gatorcane]

Convection is increasing in the SW Caribbean albeit sheared still:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[wxman57]

00Z EC ensembles were indicating a western Florida Panhandle hit. Interesting that the 00Z operational EC was to the far right of all ensemble members. GFS ensembles are focused on SW Florida Peninsula, same as operational.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z EC ensembles were indicating a western Florida Panhandle hit. Interesting that the 00Z operational EC was to the far right of all ensemble members. GFS ensembles are focused on SW Florida Peninsula, same as operational.

Sorry for the dumb question, but do you see this becoming more than a sloppy/sheared TS?

[wxman57]

00Z EC ensembles were indicating a western Florida Panhandle hit. Interesting that the 00Z operational EC was to the far right of all ensemble members. GFS ensembles are focused on SW Florida Peninsula, same as operational.

Sorry for the dumb question, but do you see this becoming more than a sloppy/sheared TS?

For now, I'd go with a "sloppy" TS, but it's too far out to be very confident in what will eventually happen.

[Alyono]

MUCH weaker so far. Not even a closed low any longer on the GFS

Canadian still has the EPAC TC with now only a disorganized low that is too weak to be classified in the Gulf

12Z models coming in weaker. Even ICON was slightly weaker

[TheStormExpert]

MUCH weaker so far. Not even a closed low any longer on the GFS

Canadian still has the EPAC TC with now only a disorganized low that is too weak to be classified in the Gulf

12Z models coming in weaker. Even ICON was slightly weaker

The GFS was likely overdoing it (as usual) and is now playing catchup. Wouldn't be surprised if in the end this doesn't even get classified a TC.