Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[wxman57]

Not much is apparent on the latest TPW loop/image. The blue coloring to the NE of the CV Islands indicates another surge of dry air flowing offshore.

[NDG]

NHC shows nothing near 40W.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC shows nothing near 40W.

https://i.imgur.com/uJHsIKf.gif

Yeah this is the correct wave... TPW has trouble with low amp waves .. mostly get lost in the noise...

[abajan]

I still see it that it is this TW we are talking about that the GFS is developing more often than not.
Maybe out of a piece of energy lagging a little behind it but certainly not from a TW that it is still in Africa today.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aBRZSGx.gif[url]

Pretty cool overlay of the red dashed line segment. What software did you use to do that?

ScreenToGif

Thanks. Bookmarked, because it will surely prove useful not only in posting marked up GIFs on these forums and a local Facebook weather group, but also in my work.

Cheers

[plasticup]

It is definitely the wave we are discussing here that the gfs developed last night and what needs to be tracked. The other wave may merge or split off which complicates things.

You dont need TPW to track this wave. It is clearly visible on sat. Tracking low level winds.

As noted ... it is a Low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.. pretty straight forward.

Do you really think it will find a favorable environment? The shear is just thrashing everything out there right now.

I still see it that it is this TW we are talking about that the GFS is developing more often than not.
Maybe out of a piece of energy lagging a little behind it but certainly not from a TW that it is still in Africa today.

https://i.imgur.com/aBRZSGx.gif

Coolest editted gif I've seen in a while!

[Aric Dunn]

It is definitely the wave we are discussing here that the gfs developed last night and what needs to be tracked. The other wave may merge or split off which complicates things.

You dont need TPW to track this wave. It is clearly visible on sat. Tracking low level winds.

As noted ... it is a Low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.. pretty straight forward.

Do you really think it will find a favorable environment? The shear is just thrashing everything out there right now.

I still see it that it is this TW we are talking about that the GFS is developing more often than not.
Maybe out of a piece of energy lagging a little behind it but certainly not from a TW that it is still in Africa today.

https://i.imgur.com/aBRZSGx.gif

Coolest editted gif I've seen in a while!

Lol gfs showed that tutt lifting out. So yes. It happens every year..

[DioBrando]

It is definitely the wave we are discussing here that the gfs developed last night and what needs to be tracked. The other wave may merge or split off which complicates things.

You dont need TPW to track this wave. It is clearly visible on sat. Tracking low level winds.

As noted ... it is a Low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.. pretty straight forward.

Do you really think it will find a favorable environment? The shear is just thrashing everything out there right now.

I still see it that it is this TW we are talking about that the GFS is developing more often than not.
Maybe out of a piece of energy lagging a little behind it but certainly not from a TW that it is still in Africa today.

https://i.imgur.com/aBRZSGx.gif

Coolest editted gif I've seen in a while!

Maybe once that long TUTT-looking thing finally moves out but idrk yet -_-

[Aric Dunn]

Most of the vorticity is tracking over the large islands this run again. Finally gets away from hispaniola at 204 hours. Really slowed it down doing that

[Aric Dunn]

Annddd the long track over cuba.. lol and if course nothing will come of that with that track ..

[Nimbus]

Annddd the long track over cuba.. lol and if course nothing will come of that with that track ..

Just to make sure we are on the same page, we are talking about that thundershower near -48 that is near 8.5 north with all the dry air around it?

[Aric Dunn]

Annddd the long track over cuba.. lol and if course nothing will come of that with that track ..

Just to make sure we are on the same page, we are talking about that thundershower near -48 that is near 8.5 north with all the dry air around it?

That is what the GFS has been on and off again trying to develop..

[SoupBone]

Annddd the long track over cuba.. lol and if course nothing will come of that with that track ..

Just to make sure we are on the same page, we are talking about that thundershower near -48 that is near 8.5 north with all the dry air around it?

That is what the GFS has been on and off again trying to develop..

So I'm sure too, the one that eventually shows Louisiana?

[USTropics]

Just to make sure we are on the same page, we are talking about that thundershower near -48 that is near 8.5 north with all the dry air around it?

That is what the GFS has been on and off again trying to develop..

So I'm sure too, the one that eventually shows Louisiana?

You can follow this wave in the GFS 700mb vort charts (pay attention to the wind barbs, it will indicate when the wave is passing). Using NHC surface analysis, this is the wave axis that's centered about 36W and 8N:



GFS 00z 24hr interval loop with wave tracking:

[Hurricaneman]

This may need to be watched as the GFS is fully onboard to develop this in the western Caribbean as well as the Euro so it may be an interesting week to 10 days coming up

[USTropics]

The other interesting part of the 00z GFS run, it has completely shifted development to the BOC/WGOM, dropping the EPAC system this run after 4-5 days of showing it. The ECMWF hasn't been particularly bullish on it, but did have a vigorous system on the 12z run. We'll see if that continues for the 00z.

[USTropics]

The 18z GFS ensembles did have a pretty good cluster in the WGOM:

[USTropics]

I believe the GFS/ECMWF have been developing the wave for the thread Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120411). You can track it with the 700mb wind barbs:

[Dylan]

Significant increase in support from 0z GEFS ensembles. Chances of tropical trouble in the Gulf 8-12 days from now are on the rise. Not shocking based on pattern, MJO, and incoming CCKW.

[USTropics]

Significant increase in support from 0z GEFS ensembles. Chances of tropical trouble in the Gulf 8-12 days from now are on the rise. Not shocking based on pattern, MJO, and incoming CCKW.

GFS 00z ensemble member loop:

[Dylan]

EURO with weak area of low pressure in the western Gulf. But how much do you want to read into that with an eastern Pacific system competing for energy? What if there’s no EPAC system? Lots of variables at play.