Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lots of time for this to change. We had a fairly strong model support for 94L too, until the models dropped it outright.

[MetroMike]

Lots of time for this to change. We had a fairly strong model support for 94L too, until the models dropped it outright.

Didn't know it was dropped outright.

[Blown Away]

00z & 06z GFS have this wave as a major hurricane landfall in SFL in long term...

[DioBrando]

00z & 06z GFS have this wave as a major hurricane landfall in SFL in long term...

Named humberto or imelda?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS coming in weaker in the short term; will mean a track further south and more likely to be entangled with the islands this run.

[DioBrando]

12z GFS coming in weaker in the short term; will mean a track further south and more likely to be entangled with the islands this run.

Does it show any storms before this

[Hurricaneman]

Another thing that the GFS is showing is a large system which takes longer to consolidate but has farther reaching impacts in the long run if it happens to form

[DioBrando]

Another thing that the GFS is showing is a large system which takes longer to consolidate but has farther reaching impacts in the long run

Located?

[SFLcane]

What major lol GFS drops it. I don’t really trust GFS runs before storms come off Africa.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is at 186 still at the LAs and by a good margin is the weakest of at least the last 4 runs for the wave now over W Africa

[Hurricaneman]

Another thing that the GFS is showing is a large system which takes longer to consolidate but has farther reaching impacts in the long run

Located?

This is from previous runs but it looks like this run may wait until the islands to get going sort of like what the Euro is showing on its 0z run

[SFLcane]

It’s now developing it ridge overhead near PR GFS that is

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS path is similar to the 18z yesterday similar to the Euro path but the GFS intensity seems to be falling in line with the Euro hence why there is no lemon for this yet

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Consolidates later but further north along the wave axis this run.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro has been consistent on waiting to develop this until it’s north of Puerto Rico for several runs in a row now. Maybe the GFS is delaying development to be more in line with the Euro.

[LarryWx]

Note the WAR is much weaker on this 12Z GFS run vs the last 3 at least. So, an OTS will be more possible on this run.

[Hurricaneman]

I think by Tuesday we’ll have a better idea what this will do when it leaves Africa

[SFLcane]

Yeah ATL ridge gone this run.

[LarryWx]

Yeah ATL ridge gone this run.

Sure enough, much weaker WAR means a pretty easy OTS in relation to the CONUS. The 12Z GFS instead threatens Bermuda.

[Hurricaneman]

Yeah ATL ridge gone this run.

Sure enough, much weaker WAR means a pretty easy OTS in relation to the CONUS. The 12Z GFS instead threatens Bermuda.

Also the GFS tends to break down ridges faster than reality but have to give a pause since it was the first model to predict the turn of Dorian east of Florida