Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[jconsor]

Agreed, but Central America gyres can sometimes spawn tropical cyclones in both the EPac and the Atlantic. It's not a "zero sum game."

With the EPS indicating the main development of the EPac system being around and west of 105W and moving WNW with time, that provides enough separation distance for a system in the W Gulf/Bay of Campeche to potentially also develop.

Best signal remains in Eastern Pacific.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: I counted 8 (16%) sub 999 vs the 10 of the 0Z, making it the 4th largest number of sub 999 for any EPS. The 0Z was in 3rd place with its 10 (20%). I counted 4 Hs (8%) and 2 others that were at least high end TS. All 4 Hs (8%) hit the US vs 6 (12%) on the 0Z in addition to about 4 others that were 1004 or lower for a total US hit rate of 8 of the 51 (16%) vs the 9 (18%) of the 0Z, which were all sub 999. The 8 of 51 (16%) US hit rate is likely at or tied for the 2nd highest of any EPS just behind the 0Z's 9 of 51, which is I think is very likely the most of any.
Of the 4 H hits, 3 hit somewhere in E LA-W FL Panhandle corridor (10/19-20) and 1 hit W FL on 10/23.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS: Are we gong to have an actual TC landfall on the US? Based on hour 210, maybe.

[Ivanhater]

Low gets caught up in trough. Lots of rain for gulf coast and wr need it bad. We will see if this trends stronger

[LarryWx]

For the first run in at least 3, the 18Z GEFS actually has a TC landfall in the US (a sub 999 hitting W LA on 10/20).

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea late this weekend. This system is forecast to move
westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low remains over water while moving
near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[StruThiO]

Waters are extremely warm:

[gatorcane]

Ironically last year around the same time we had a similar NHC outlook and shading where the system moved inland over CA. Nothing else formed in the Caribbean after that.

[floridasun78]

look high may be strong enough pull it west to central america

[LarryWx]

Folks, we do officially have a landfall on the 0Z GFS: into LA as ~1001 mb on 10/20.

[LarryWx]

Landfall of cat 2ish H W FL Pan on 10/19 on 0Z CMC:

[LarryWx]

Preliminary maps suggest the 0Z Euro will likely have little and maybe less than the 12Z due to stronger 500 mb high to the north keeping it further south. Result: it had very little.
I'm educatedly guessing that the 0Z EPS will also be a quieter run.

[GCANE]

GFS more in line with CMC on a TC spinup in the GOM as the CAG moves into the BOC.

[tropicwatch]

Kind of ironic, when the NHC gives the Caribbean a lemon. The convection goes poof.

[cycloneye]

Kind of ironic, when the NHC gives the Caribbean a lemon. The convection goes poof.

Is in the weekend that a low forms.

[Ivanhater]

06Z gfs into SE Louisiana. Both gfs and cmc trending stronger

[ronjon]

06Z gfs into SE Louisiana. Both gfs and cmc trending stronger

Yes we'll definitely have to watch model trends on this one as we may be dealing with a hurricane in the GOM 7-10 days down the road.

[Dean4Storms]

I could see the GFS idea of a sloppy TS but a hurricane will be hard to pull off in this increasingly active longwave trough pattern, would expect increasing shear and dry air entering the Gulf. The ECM has some vorticity in the western Gulf by next weekend but that's about it.

[tolakram]

It should be noted that the GFS has been extremely consistent with development and the euro is now slowly mirroring at least the location where a disturbance will be, and even moves it north northeast similar to the GFS.

[ronjon]

I could see the GFS idea of a sloppy TS but a hurricane will be hard to pull off in this increasingly active longwave trough pattern, would expect increasing shear and dry air entering the Gulf. The ECM has some vorticity in the western Gulf by next weekend but that's about it.

Yes I generally agree as the system moves closer to the northern GOM but the GOM has been untapped this year thus far without a major cyclone and we really haven't had a strong frontal system scour out the southern US thus far this fall. Think there is some potential for at least CAT 1 or 2 storm, especially in the BOC. So far, the only model that storngly develops it is the CMC - and we know how much that model tends to overdo systems (although it has been better this year).