Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis and others in PR will definitely NOT like tonight's Euro. The good news is it is 10 days out but the model is not painting a pretty picture




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[SFLcane]

Luis and others in PR will definitely NOT like tonight's Euro. The good news is it is 10 days out but the model is not painting a pretty picture

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200908/39ae06d8d90a83a200fb38dcb842bdcc.jpg

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[FireRat]

man, future Sally/Teddy is looking like a big threat, you know it's serious when even wxman57 says this thing could be trouble down the road. The models are now latching onto this possible threatening solution, gonna be interesting next week and beyond!

[Shell Mound]

man, future Sally/Teddy is looking like a big threat, you know it's serious when even wxman57 says this thing could be trouble down the road. The models are now latching onto this possible threatening solution, gonna be interesting next week and beyond!

I’m not sure as to why people see these solutions as threatening. Until we get an actual system, preferably named, with a well-defined LLC, any modelled solution is bound to be far from reality. Respectfully, even if a professional meteorologist regards this AEW as a threat, I, personally speaking, would not be so bullish as to “sound the alarm” at this premature stage. This AEW is at least three days’ distance from the easternmost tropical Atlantic. The EPS continues to advertise a progressive pattern through the long range, which would reduce the risk of a landfall, given troughs continually eroding the WAR. Additionally, the 00Z ECMWF suggests that this AEW would near the longitude of the islands on September 18, meaning any landfall on the mainland U.S. would occur three days later—a very late date, climatologically speaking, for a long-tracking CV system to strike the U.S. mainland. At this stage, even if this system develops, I believe it will most likely curve OTS or threaten Bermuda, like Paulette and Rene. Of course, this conclusion is preliminary and probabilistic.

[cycloneye]

man, future Sally/Teddy is looking like a big threat, you know it's serious when even wxman57 says this thing could be trouble down the road. The models are now latching onto this possible threatening solution, gonna be interesting next week and beyond!

I’m not sure as to why people see these solutions as threatening. Until we get an actual system, preferably named, with a well-defined LLC, any modelled solution is bound to be far from reality. Respectfully, even if a professional meteorologist regards this AEW as a threat, I, personally speaking, would not be so bullish as to “sound the alarm” at this premature stage. This AEW is at least three days’ distance from the easternmost tropical Atlantic. The EPS continues to advertise a progressive pattern through the long range, which would reduce the risk of a landfall, given troughs continually eroding the WAR. Additionally, the 00Z ECMWF suggests that this AEW would near the longitude of the islands on September 18, meaning any landfall on the mainland U.S. would occur three days later—a very late date, climatologically speaking, for a long-tracking CV system to strike the U.S. mainland. At this stage, even if this system develops, I believe it will most likely curve OTS or threaten Bermuda, like Paulette and Rene. Of course, this conclusion is preliminary and probabilistic.

Hate to get somewhat political but PR is part of the U.S as a territory as well the U.S Virgin Islands.

[cycloneye]

The good news is that is 10 days out but the bad news is that is one of the best global models. By the way on September 18th, one of the most strongest hurricanes to hit PR in the history was Hugo in 1989.

[cycloneye]

06Z GFS almost as Euro.

[Shell Mound]

man, future Sally/Teddy is looking like a big threat, you know it's serious when even wxman57 says this thing could be trouble down the road. The models are now latching onto this possible threatening solution, gonna be interesting next week and beyond!

I’m not sure as to why people see these solutions as threatening. Until we get an actual system, preferably named, with a well-defined LLC, any modelled solution is bound to be far from reality. Respectfully, even if a professional meteorologist regards this AEW as a threat, I, personally speaking, would not be so bullish as to “sound the alarm” at this premature stage. This AEW is at least three days’ distance from the easternmost tropical Atlantic. The EPS continues to advertise a progressive pattern through the long range, which would reduce the risk of a landfall, given troughs continually eroding the WAR. Additionally, the 00Z ECMWF suggests that this AEW would near the longitude of the islands on September 18, meaning any landfall on the mainland U.S. would occur three days later—a very late date, climatologically speaking, for a long-tracking CV system to strike the U.S. mainland. At this stage, even if this system develops, I believe it will most likely curve OTS or threaten Bermuda, like Paulette and Rene. Of course, this conclusion is preliminary and probabilistic.

Hate to get somewhat political but PR is part of the U.S as a territory as well the U.S Virgin Islands.

I know, but I think this AEW will end up missing the islands as well as the mainland U.S., like Paulette and Rene. I certainly hope so. We’ll see.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO

[supercane4867]

Georges developed on September 15 and dissipated on October the 1st. It's not favored climatologically this time of the year but it does sometimes happen.

[toad strangler]

man, future Sally/Teddy is looking like a big threat, you know it's serious when even wxman57 says this thing could be trouble down the road. The models are now latching onto this possible threatening solution, gonna be interesting next week and beyond!

I’m not sure as to why people see these solutions as threatening. Until we get an actual system, preferably named, with a well-defined LLC, any modelled solution is bound to be far from reality. Respectfully, even if a professional meteorologist regards this AEW as a threat, I, personally speaking, would not be so bullish as to “sound the alarm” at this premature stage. This AEW is at least three days’ distance from the easternmost tropical Atlantic. The EPS continues to advertise a progressive pattern through the long range, which would reduce the risk of a landfall, given troughs continually eroding the WAR. Additionally, the 00Z ECMWF suggests that this AEW would near the longitude of the islands on September 18, meaning any landfall on the mainland U.S. would occur three days later—a very late date, climatologically speaking, for a long-tracking CV system to strike the U.S. mainland. At this stage, even if this system develops, I believe it will most likely curve OTS or threaten Bermuda, like Paulette and Rene. Of course, this conclusion is preliminary and probabilistic.

It's common knowledge that re-curves are standard basin climo (away from CONUS) and especially the later we get into September. You did predict that Laura would re-curve away from the SE CONUS into the Atlantic though, so I'll just wait and see what happens instead. Just the other day I made a statement that the Verde season was probably about over for the CONUS ... but certainly not the islands. That's where we need to watch 1st and foremost.

[SconnieCane]

The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane (which also devastated PR and some of the Lesser Antilles) came off Africa around September 7 or 8 and made its landfalls in mid-late month. Peak season isn't just one day or a few days, it's the last week of August and at least the first three weeks of September. Nature doesn't follow a calendar and some seasons just thumb their nose at climatology, which this one certainly has been doing ever since we were barely into June and on our third named storm.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[SFLcane]

Very Impressive wave.. all systems go for this to intensify into a powerful hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Very Impressive wave.. all systems go for this to intensify into a powerful hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/klpXfcK.gif

You can see the turning even in infared.

[SFLcane]

One to watch closely folks..

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1303319607781060609

[Spacecoast]

06z GEFS shows 68% Gen Prob.. 15 members out of 22.


Details


0z ECMF has >90% Gen Prob. Here are the wind tracks...

[EquusStorm]

Given this year's consistent failure of modeling until recently, seeing this much consensus of something very significant coming is pretty attention-worthy. This will probably be the kind of big storm most of us expected to be seeing all of Aug/Sep with the favorable background state.

[jaxfladude]

Fish or troubles ahead for this system for someone(s)?

[tomatkins]

man, future Sally/Teddy is looking like a big threat, you know it's serious when even wxman57 says this thing could be trouble down the road. The models are now latching onto this possible threatening solution, gonna be interesting next week and beyond!

I’m not sure as to why people see these solutions as threatening. Until we get an actual system, preferably named, with a well-defined LLC, any modelled solution is bound to be far from reality. Respectfully, even if a professional meteorologist regards this AEW as a threat, I, personally speaking, would not be so bullish as to “sound the alarm” at this premature stage. This AEW is at least three days’ distance from the easternmost tropical Atlantic. The EPS continues to advertise a progressive pattern through the long range, which would reduce the risk of a landfall, given troughs continually eroding the WAR. Additionally, the 00Z ECMWF suggests that this AEW would near the longitude of the islands on September 18, meaning any landfall on the mainland U.S. would occur three days later—a very late date, climatologically speaking, for a long-tracking CV system to strike the U.S. mainland. At this stage, even if this system develops, I believe it will most likely curve OTS or threaten Bermuda, like Paulette and Rene. Of course, this conclusion is preliminary and probabilistic.

I wouldn't say to sound the alarm - but unlike the Paulette and Rene, which have been forecast all along to be recurvers at most threatening Bermuda, this storm seems to have some model support for a southerly track that COULD threaten the northern Caribbean and US Mainland. Makes sense to at least make sure the alarm is still working. While climatology suggests an eventual recurve - it was just this time of year that Florence did exactly the thing you suggest is not likely.