Tropical Wave in the East-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 92L)

[Hurricaneman]

The CMC is showing an intensifying storm heading slowly north at 204hrs through the Yucatan Channel

[LarryWx]

The CMC is showing an intensifying storm heading slowly north at 204hrs through the Yucatan Channel

0Z CMC at 240/cartoonland fwiw:

[SFLcane]

18Z NAVGEM moves this into the SE GOM then it turns E to ENE and moves over South Florida while rapidly intensifying over the Bahamas

https://i.postimg.cc/yY2F8fJW/nvg10-sfc10m-198-go-mex.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/brDhYYMG/nvg10-sfc10m-228-go-mex.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/YqrPxC8Q/nvg10-sfc10m-240-go-mex.gif

Thankfully it’s a garbage model showing this.

[jlauderdal]

18Z NAVGEM moves this into the SE GOM then it turns E to ENE and moves over South Florida while rapidly intensifying over the Bahamas

https://i.postimg.cc/yY2F8fJW/nvg10-sfc10m-198-go-mex.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/brDhYYMG/nvg10-sfc10m-228-go-mex.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/YqrPxC8Q/nvg10-sfc10m-240-go-mex.gif

Thankfully it’s a garbage model showing this.

South Florida is the magnet, navgem is the iron

[cycloneye]

2. Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is
also producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20
mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions
could become a little more conducive for development when the system
is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Yea gfs and gfs/p don’t really do much with this wave anymore atleast that’s the trend last 24rs or so.

[Dean4Storms]

Would expect this to be an Invest at anytime today.

[AutoPenalti]

Yea gfs and gfs/p don’t really do much with this wave anymore atleast that’s the trend last 24rs or so.

What a mess with these models...

[SFLcane]

Would expect this to be an Invest at anytime today.

Possibly but doubt it it’s got a date with a pv/streamer which might be the reason for dwindling model support.

[Laminar]

18Z NAVGEM moves this into the SE GOM then it turns E to ENE and moves over South Florida while rapidly intensifying over the Bahamas

The GFS also has one run about three days ago that showed an expansive hurricane exploding out over the Bahamas going NE.

[SFLcane]

18Z NAVGEM moves this into the SE GOM then it turns E to ENE and moves over South Florida while rapidly intensifying over the Bahamas

https://i.postimg.cc/yY2F8fJW/nvg10-sfc10m-198-go-mex.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/brDhYYMG/nvg10-sfc10m-228-go-mex.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/YqrPxC8Q/nvg10-sfc10m-240-go-mex.gif

Just for fun... nogaps doubled down.

Edit: wait what it’s the first wave takes it up towards the gulfcoast then swings it back south into SFL.

[toad strangler]

aHHHHH if I had a nickle for every NAVY run I saw slam the FL peninsula

[SFLcane]

aHHHHH if I had a nickle for every NAVY run I saw slam the FL peninsula

Not even a physical solution lol.

[jlauderdal]

aHHHHH if I had a nickle for every NAVY run I saw slam the FL peninsula

how about the gfs and its offsprings?

[SFLcane]

Maybe this will get tagged sometime today

[us89]

Maybe this will get tagged sometime today

Unlikely, usually they wait for the 5 day development probabilities to get into the medium/high range.

[SFLcane]

Maybe this will get tagged sometime today

Unlikely, usually they wait for the 5 day development probabilities to get into the medium/high range.

Yep, which is now close to 0 as models have lost interest.
That ULL is going split it in two.

[aspen]

Maybe this will get tagged sometime today

Unlikely, usually they wait for the 5 day development probabilities to get into the medium/high range.

Yep, which is now close to 0 as models have lost interest.
That ULL is going split it in two.

That’s probably why the GFS-Para shows its vorticity going north of the GAs and into the Bahamas. Could be something to watch for them and the SEUS instead of the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

CMC and ICON like this wave near the Yucatán then potentially hooking right towards FL.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GEFS is more enthusiastic than the 06z was.