Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS-Para 06z tells the 00z, "hold my beer". Another quirk in the irony that is 2020. A storm with the first letter Z, making a Z shape out of the Caribbean. Almost like it wants to leave its mark on the history books.

[SFLcane]

00z and 06z both did that.

[blp]

Euro ENS starting to show more development. I think the GFS is still showing its historical trigger happy bias with development in that region. Slower development seems more plausible in line with Euro and CMC.

[SFLcane]

Dangerous I’d say for the Florida peninsula.

[otowntiger]

The 00z synoptic run showed a strong N/S front moving quickly towards the EC in 8 or 9 days, and picks up whatever forms and moves it NE - towards the end of October that's the most likely outcome.

I agree. If it were to do anything else, that would be anomalous. Of course lots of options can still occur, just gotta believe the odds are strongly in favor of this solution where any storm forming in the SW Caribbean this time of year will be swept sharply out to sea well SE of FL. :edit: of course the threat to the Greater Antilles, and potentially the Bahamas, is there depending upon strength.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1316731722466291712

[aspen]

934 mbar at landfall...I think that’s the most aggressive run the GFS-Para has ever had.

[AnnularCane]

The overnight GFS-Para, just for fun!!!

If we were playing $10,000 Pyramid, this would get filed under the category of "Things not likely to happen". Pays a visit to Havana and has a Mojito and then pulls a Crazy Ivan and comes back for more. Then for good measure heads into the GOM towards Louisiana.

This run was definitely one of the more entertaining ones this year...

https://i.imgur.com/KibtcPM.gif

"Oops, I forgot something, I have to go back. Wow, it's really nice in the Gulf...hey, what's this? Is that that state Laura and Delta were talking about? Maybe I should check this out!"

[toad strangler]

That Para is something else. Think it's time to start from scratch again with that one.

[mlfreeman]

The overnight GFS-Para, just for fun!!!

If we were playing $10,000 Pyramid, this would get filed under the category of "Things not likely to happen". Pays a visit to Havana and has a Mojito and then pulls a Crazy Ivan and comes back for more. Then for good measure heads into the GOM towards Louisiana.

This run was definitely one of the more entertaining ones this year...

https://i.imgur.com/KibtcPM.gif

That's the kind of thing you do if you're a supervillain with a weather control device.

[tomatkins]

The overnight GFS-Para, just for fun!!!

If we were playing $10,000 Pyramid, this would get filed under the category of "Things not likely to happen". Pays a visit to Havana and has a Mojito and then pulls a Crazy Ivan and comes back for more. Then for good measure heads into the GOM towards Louisiana.

This run was definitely one of the more entertaining ones this year...

https://i.imgur.com/KibtcPM.gif

"Oops, I forgot something, I have to go back. Wow, it's really nice in the Gulf...hey, what's this? Is that that state Laura and Delta were talking about? Maybe I should check this out!"

Its not that different from the 18Z version of the GFS-Para. In that one the storm gets pushed into Mexico, but then another wave from the Bahamas region gets pushed all the way across the gulf.

[aspen]

That Para is something else. Think it's time to start from scratch again with that one.

Just ignore everything after 240 hours and it’s a decently plausible run.

[LarryWx]

I’m tempted to go with the 6Z para as exactly what will happen. I mean exactly with no error for any forecast position it has for every 6 hours.

[SFLcane]

That Para is something else. Think it's time to start from scratch again with that one.

It’s had a similar track in 00z and 06z similar to Inez in 1966. If you asked me quite dangerous for the Florida peninsula. I agree with Yaakov GEFS likely ejecting the storm out to quickly.

[AutoPenalti]

EPS is still showing this going OTS as quick as the GEFS though?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1316747635135598597

[aspen]

MPIs have been rising, along with SSTs, in the WCar south of Cuba where “future Zeta” is being modeled to track. The waters there could theoretically support something in the range of Mitch or Rita. If this gets 36-60 hours to intensify with a developing inner core and low shear, it is going to explode — and we’ve already seen that with Gamma (TD to borderline Cat1 in 27 hours) and Delta (TD to 115 kt Cat4 in 36.3 hours).

[Emmett_Brown]

I’m tempted to go with the 6Z para as exactly what will happen. I mean exactly with no error for any forecast position it has for every 6 hours.

Yeah... that IS tempting... Ok, I'm on board too

[cp79]

The overnight GFS-Para, just for fun!!!

If we were playing $10,000 Pyramid, this would get filed under the category of "Things not likely to happen". Pays a visit to Havana and has a Mojito and then pulls a Crazy Ivan and comes back for more. Then for good measure heads into the GOM towards Louisiana.

This run was definitely one of the more entertaining ones this year...

https://i.imgur.com/KibtcPM.gif

"Oops, I forgot something, I have to go back. Wow, it's really nice in the Gulf...hey, what's this? Is that that state Laura and Delta were talking about? Maybe I should check this out!"

Never want to say never, but I think La. is going to be In the clear with this. Steering conditions are beneficial for them, not so much for Cuba, Fla. or Bahamas. I think we’re entering a more traditional fall pattern with incoming troughs which will block it from moving to the northern gulf coast.

[OuterBanker]

GFS All clear OTS with dominant W Atlantic sys and weak W Carib system.

Euro all clear with W Atlantic system in the traditional Bermuda/US Mainland slot.

GFS Para on some powerful drugs.

Canadian with a weak system off Ga wishing it went beyond 240.