Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational
https://i.imgur.com/SONQxsd.png

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

In late Aug, I had said that the SE US was safe from Larry from the start and felt the first half of Sept was looking good for the SE. The second half is up in the air imo for the entire E coast and that includes with regard to the MDR and thus this system along others. In the satellite era, the CONUS has been hit on 9/20+ by a storm forming E of 50W in the MDR on average once every 11 years. It has been 19 years since the last one.

[Spacecoast]

Wait…lol

At the end of the run it stops weakening at hints of turning west.

Yes and more slower from 216 to 240.

https://i.imgur.com/scq7kfP.gif

The key is that it turns before reaching Hebert Box #1. At this point most EPS members show this system curving just east of the Leeward Islands. If the system were to remain a TS or weaker, it would likely continue farther west and impact the Leewards, but most of the EPS members show the system becoming a hurricane well to the east of the Leewards. This allows the system to feel a weakness and bypass the Leewards to the east before possibly slowing down to the north of those islands. At this point I think Bermuda is at greatest threat of a potential impact. There will be TUTTs and shortwaves passing through, and a stronger system would likely feel their influence.

Dora '64 seems to have been the lone exception to the rule.
I don't recall the details.

[Teban54]

Good point about EPS:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1436776908730028048

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational
https://i.imgur.com/SONQxsd.png

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

It’s easy to be a bear IRT the tropics.

I'd say it is and it isn't. It is from a stats standpoint since so many don't hit but is isn't psychologically because the board atmosphere at wx boards favors bulls over bears because most want the excitement and forecasting challenges even if they don't want to be hit. Wx boards thrive on having exciting things to to talk about, especially when there's a lot of uncertainty, to keep up the discussions.

[Teban54]

Another question: It seems like the Euro and many of its ensembles show the system intensifying around 15N 40W, over waters just upwelled by Larry. Are they betting on SSTs recovering before the system arrives, or could this lead to delayed development and intensification in later runs?

[AnnularCane]

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

It’s easy to be a bear IRT the tropics.

I'd say it is and it isn't. It is from a stats standpoint since so many don't hit but is isn't psychologically because the board atmosphere at wx boards favors bulls over bears because most want the excitement and forecasting challenges even if they don't want to be hit. Wx boards thrive on having exciting things to to talk about, especially when there's a lot of uncertainty, to keep up the discussions.

The yearly battle of DA BULLS vs. DA BEARS!

(I hope everyone gets that reference. )

[AlphaToOmega]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational
https://i.imgur.com/SONQxsd.png

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

The difference is that the ensembles showed Larry being an OTS storm. Not so much with this storm

[abajan]

https://i.postimg.cc/yY66yMWG/ecens-2021-09-11-00-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
Reminds me of a certain "M" storm from the year MMXVII

Also a few models have it as a powerful hurricane passing through Hebert Box 1. Interesting.

I had to paste MMXVII into this Roman numeral converter to find out that's 2017.

[toad strangler]

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

It’s easy to be a bear IRT the tropics.

I'd say it is and it isn't. It is from a stats standpoint since so many don't hit but is isn't psychologically because the board atmosphere at wx boards favors bulls over bears because most want the excitement and forecasting challenges even if they don't want to be hit. Wx boards thrive on having exciting things to to talk about, especially when there's a lot of uncertainty, to keep up the discussions.

Vigorously disagree. It’s cake work with as many cherries on top as you would like to continually pontificate known climo stats.

Looking for the things that could POSSIBLY make an anomalous outcome that DO happen takes much more effort.

[Shell Mound]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational
https://i.imgur.com/SONQxsd.png

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

The difference is that the ensembles showed Larry being an OTS storm. Not so much with this storm

[LarryWx]

That’s not really a recurve though... I don’t think it’s taking account the influence from Chutulu.

Keep in mind that Chanthu is on the same run's maps.

I've seen Webb's tweet about this but that would apply most for any TC making it to the far W basin before 9/24. The timing on this is for it to get there 9/24-28or so. By then the Chanthu influenced ridge is mainly gone per 12Z models. But this is all way out there and is highly speculative. There could easily be a new ridge building in by then thus meaning potential danger.

Regarding the Chantuu ridge timing, that would possibly come into play if 93L were to unexpectedly get strong and go further west than expected because that would likely bring it into the far W basin ~9/20-2. That's one reason I'm closely watching 93L.

[aspen]

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

The difference is that the ensembles showed Larry being an OTS storm. Not so much with this storm

https://i.imgur.com/WUncesH.png

Plenty of those members could end up making landfall in the Northeast or Atlantic Canada, and since they’re further SW than Larry, they’ll get over a large expanse of 29-30C SSTs that have gone untapped all season long. If this wave reaches that region, it could become a strong Category 4, and a strong ridge pumped by Chthulu could push the storm into anywhere from the Greater Antilles to Newfoundland.

[CyclonicFury]

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

The difference is that the ensembles showed Larry being an OTS storm. Not so much with this storm

https://i.imgur.com/WUncesH.png

I wouldn't be winking in victory yet. This is a complicated setup, and there were 2-3 members that did hit the CONUS. While a recurve is favored, it's far from a certainty.

[Woofde]

Isn't it a tad early to be thinking about recurves in the western Atlantic when the wave hasn't even left Africa yet .

[AutoPenalti]

Isn't it a tad early to be thinking about recurves in the western Atlantic when the wave hasn't even left Africa yet .

Nah, it’s usually set in stone to some.

[Category5Kaiju]

Isn't it a tad early to be thinking about recurves in the western Atlantic when the wave hasn't even left Africa yet .

Nah, it’s usually set in stone to some.

Can't agree more Also all I will say is compared to the ensembles that consistently had Larry curve OTS before its precursor wave even left Africa, for this new wave the ensembles are still pointing toward a more westward track, and whether it goes on a deadly S-curve like Frances or Andrew or OTS remains to be seen; however, imho, the Chanthu-generated ridge and the low latitude at which this wave is expected to depart Africa could make recurving a bit questionable at this point in time.

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could from by the middle of
next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS has zilch again while the GEFS has several member with development while most recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. From 120 hour animation below:

[aspen]

Here are the three scenarios I think are the most probable at this point, marked on an SST map to show the oceanic environment this would be moving through:
1.) Chanthu doesn't pump the ridge much or a trough comes to save the day, leading to a Larry-like recurve that could be a close call for Bermuda or Newfoundland.
2.) Chanthu pumps a very strong ridge that sends this system on a Maria or Georges-like track through the NW Caribbean and Bahamas, becoming a significant CONUS threat
3.) Chanthu does strengthen the ridge, but it's not enough to keep it WNW and it has a late recurve that could threaten anywhere from the Carolinas to Canada (or miss all/most landmasses by a slim margin like Earl '10)


The further SW this is, the more favorable the SSTs and OHC content it'll encounter will be. I think this has a good shot of becoming the 4th major of the season. However, I don't anticipate it recurving around 40-50W like early Larry runs, nor do I think it'll get south of PR. But only time will tell and maybe this ends up as another relatively safe recurve that either misses land or, like Larry, only impacts land when it's weakening and moving too fast to cause any prolonged damage.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS 500mb animation from 120 to 240 hours. While the run shows no development of this wave, we can see what kind of steering it shows. Looks like some kind of mid-level low over the Central Atlantic which opens up a large weakness for a cyclone to recurve into (as well as a feature which could induce some shear). We see a large anomalously strong ridge over SE Canada towards the end likely due to the recurving typhoon but the weakness over the Central Atlantic is large - if the storm were to be as deep as the Euro shows and the mid-level low is that deep, it would likely recurve over the Central Atlantic before it could get underneath not to mention the ridge is far to the north which would still allow some poleward motion at least to some extent.