Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (10/60)

[Jr0d]

difference between the euro and GFS is the latitude in which the models start developing this thing, to be noted the GFS obviously is way more south than the Euro with it staying weak on approach to the leeward islands and caribbean, I have to lean toward potentially the more southern GFS solution because looking at the wave live on satellite imagery convection is really favoring the southern part of the wave, pretty void on the north end of the wave axis , something to keep in mind

This. If the north part of the disturbance develops then its almost certainly going to miss the CONUS. It's the south part of it developing that the GFS and ICON and tracking towards the Leewards. If this is the scenerio then it may have a chance of making it to the CONUS in my amateur opinion.

While rare, sometimes this large disturbances can spawn two systems.

Still too early to make any kind of reasonable 7 day forecast with the potential storm or the trough, but it is tough to go against the consensus of a significant August trough coming down in 7 to 10 days.

[Stratton23]

Jr0D yup still in watch and wait mode, if it tracks north of the islands/ caribbean it probably will just got out to sea because of the trough over the eastern US, however if it takes a track more in align with the GFS, it could potentially miss the trough or the trough is too weak / and or moves out faster , that could allow for ridging to build in and potentially send this into the gulf, definitely too early to write off anything yet

[cycloneye]

I was just wondering when a thread will be made.

Think this will get a good handful of pages before it moves over to a very active “active storm” thread.

A thread will be created when it is mentioned for the first time at the TWO.

Thanks!

And before I get ahead of myself (or maybe someone else), can only admins create future development threads or is it opened for everyone?

Is open for everyone to make threads.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS continues to forecast development by Friday.

[aspen]

18z GFS continues to forecast development by Friday.

Looks like a Grace ‘21 repeat on this run: starts as a broad TD/TS and runs right over all the islands.

[Stratton23]

Looks like its making a run to scrape the east coast of florida as it starts to feel the trough, but definitely another run that impacts the US, timing/ strength and location of this trough could really change where this system goes

[Stratton23]

florida and the se US get clobbered on this run, the trough cuts off and becomes trapped over the Eastern US, System rides up the eastern florida coast while smacking Cape Canaveral , the cut off trough then pin wheels the system into the carolinas on the GFS

[caneseddy]

florida and the se US get clobbered on this run, the trough cuts off and becomes trapped over the Eastern US, System rides up the eastern florida coast while smacking Cape Canaveral , the cut off trough then pin wheels the system into the carolinas on the GFS

Hurricane David Part 2

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025


.Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the latter half of this week, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or next weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph,
approaching the northeastern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[eastcoastFL]

Euro has been pretty bad in recent years with Genesis. I wouldn't put a ton of weight on the euro before we see a storm form.

[Cachondo23]

Up to 40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025


.Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the latter half of this week, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or next weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph,
approaching the northeastern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cSBkR4h.png

Chances going up pretty quickly. The path looks moist with little dry air, warm waters but I some see shear near Leeward Islands that could affect any RI possibility. We shall see.

[Stratton23]

Given the tropical wave/ convection is entangled within the ITCZ, this is going to give models a real tough time figuring out where a low might form , expect some wild runs/ swings from models for probably the next week or so

[Nimbus]

Given the tropical wave/ convection is entangled within the ITCZ, this is going to give models a real tough time figuring out where a low might form , expect some wild runs/ swings from models for probably the next week or so

That confirms what I was wondering, the heaviest convection is down around 9N, could be an invest there if the morning visible imagery shows persistence.

[Stormcenter]

I know this is still a long ways out but I think it has GOM storm written all over it. IMO

[eastcoastFL]

I know this is still a long ways out but I think it has GOM storm written all over it. IMO

Why?

[StPeteMike]

Still time to go, but I’m leaning that the southern edge of the convection will edge out the northern component. Southern side has the benefit of the ITZ feeding into it while moving west. Northern side seems to be already have convection waning and will have to deal with SAL. While the ITZ will benefit the southern side, it will also hinder substantial development until around 50W.

I think that’s why I am with Stormcenter with this one. Now, this AOI could pull a Matthew and abruptly turn north! But if this is to develop from the southern side of the mess, the chances of GOM system increases substantially.

[StPeteMike]

Given the tropical wave/ convection is entangled within the ITCZ, this is going to give models a real tough time figuring out where a low might form , expect some wild runs/ swings from models for probably the next week or so

Yep. Models are unable to latch onto one low/wave and likely have multiple fighting against one another until one of them actually starts getting itself together.

Likely another 2 days of models going back and forth and some of them dropping development and others showing a Cat 5 monster.

[ROCK]

I know this is still a long ways out but I think it has GOM storm written all over it. IMO

Why?

I agree. Sniffs that way to me also. Eject Erin and builds the high. Weak wave into the Caribbean or disrupted by the islands. Stay more west. Trof doesn’t dig as they typically DONT do in August. Yeah I can see it. NO to WC FL smelling that way to me. ICON is the new Euro from years past..IMO.

[LAF92]

I don’t like the CONUS having to rely on a trough in late August to block a storm. I’ve seen crazier things before but it’s more likely to not come through than it is to come through.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I don’t like the CONUS having to rely on a trough in late August to block a storm. I’ve seen crazier things before but it’s more likely to not come through than it is to come through.

The storm also has a chance of taking a lower approach than Erin as well. Not a guarantee it will hit anything, but it is probably more likely than Erin.