INVEST 96L

[Ivanhater]

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 41.1 270./14.0
6 11.1 42.0 286./ 9.5
12 11.4 42.8 292./ 7.7
18 11.8 43.4 297./ 7.5
24 11.9 44.1 287./ 6.4
30 12.6 44.3 340./ 6.8
36 13.2 44.6 336./ 6.5
42 13.7 44.8 331./ 5.3
48 14.1 45.0 339./ 4.9
54 14.7 45.2 336./ 5.9
60 15.2 45.4 341./ 5.3
66 15.7 46.0 315./ 8.0
72 16.3 46.5 320./ 7.2
78 17.0 47.1 316./ 9.3
84 17.7 47.7 322./ 8.8
90 18.4 48.4 315./10.0
96 19.3 49.0 324./10.1
102 20.1 49.7 319./10.7
108 20.9 50.3 323./10.0
114 21.7 51.0 321./10.0
120 22.7 51.6 326./11.5
126 23.7 52.3 326./12.0



12z GFDL shows a track away from the islands.

Well away from GOM...

did you believe the first model runs on emily as they had her going north of the islands as well?

[Frank2]

Re: Huckster's post

Yes, thanks for noting this trough to the others (so I'm not accused of being in denial) - as the NHC mentioned in the TWO, this disturbance might move WNW, and in my opinion, perhaps another "fish" system, since, as you said, the mid-Atlantic trough is deep at this time.

Frank

P.S. Again, if this system is eventually named Jose, it will continue the record season as far as statistics are concerned, but, a record season means the total number of named systems (even if the remainder of them stay at sea), and does not necessarily mean a record number of landfalling hurricanes, as many in the public probably have been mislead to believe over the past few months.

[dwg71]

I believe Emily was further south. I believe the weakness left by Irene will steer 96L north. That's just what I see. You could see otherwise, your entitled to.

[Normandy]

Id tend to agree with you, but its to early for me to make any call.

[Ivanhater]

I believe Emily was further south. I believe the weakness left by Irene will steer 96L north. That's just what I see. You could see otherwise, your entitled to.

true, we will see in the next couple of days

[hicksta]

is this the one Joe B said might be impacting the gulf?

Also latley, the models ussualy dont have a good grip on storms when they begin. ie. emily, irene. so in a few days we might have a general path

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ok this is getting Sickening....Its not going to leave that fast being at a latitude that is currently negociating...Crazy...

[clfenwi]

I believe Emily was further south. I believe the weakness left by Irene will steer 96L north. That's just what I see. You could see otherwise, your entitled to.

Dons the Red Cross helmet

The first model output for the Invest that became Emily placed the center at 10.8 North 42.2 West. If the current direction (270°) of this system holds for a few hours, then they will be at virtually the same spot. Just putting the info out there.

[Frank2]

Re: dwg71's post

Yes, the western Atlantic trough is an issue that is becoming more and more of a deciding factor this season. While the trough was not very noticeable in May or June, since then it has continued to remain an active feature, and, because of the very slow movement of Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Harvey, the trough has only deepened, and seems to have created a long-term rift in the subtropical ridge, with a portion consisting of small high centered off the southeast U.S. coast, with the bulk of the ridge lying between Bermuda and the Azores.

Frank

[JTD]

Yet another fishy

This is setting up EXACTLY like 1995. Lots of storms, no landfalls.

[dwg71]

I believe Emily was further south. I believe the weakness left by Irene will steer 96L north. That's just what I see. You could see otherwise, your entitled to.

Dons the Red Cross helmet

The first model output for the Invest that became Emily placed the center at 10.8 North 42.2 West. If the current direction (270°) of this system holds for a few hours, then they will be at virtually the same spot. Just putting the info out there.

No helmet necessary, I didn't look it up. 18Z models should be out in the next hour. That will give us something to argue, I mean have discussions about.

[JTD]

Re: dwg71's post

Yes, the western Atlantic trough is an issue that is becoming more and more of a deciding factor this season. While the trough was not very noticeable in May or June, since then it has continued to remain an active feature, and, because of the very slow movement of Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Harvey, the trough has only deepened, and seems to have created a long-term rift in the subtropical ridge, with a portion consisting of small high centered off the southeast U.S. coast, with the bulk of the ridge lying between Bermuda and the Azores.

Frank

Frank, would you say the U.S.E.C. can start breathing esaier regarding damaging landfalling hurricanes this year?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yes, the western Atlantic trough is an issue that is becoming more and more of a deciding factor this season. While the trough was not very noticeable in May or June, since then it has continued to remain an active feature, and, because of the very slow movement of Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Harvey, the trough has only deepened, and seems to have created a long-term rift in the subtropical ridge, with a portion consisting of small high centered off the southeast U.S. coast, with the bulk of the ridge lying between Bermuda and the Azores.

Frank

Frank that trough will not catch this developing system hands down...it Is at 10 low for heavens sake...

[Ivanhater]

Yes, the western Atlantic trough is an issue that is becoming more and more of a deciding factor this season. While the trough was not very noticeable in May or June, since then it has continued to remain an active feature, and, because of the very slow movement of Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Harvey, the trough has only deepened, and seems to have created a long-term rift in the subtropical ridge, with a portion consisting of small high centered off the southeast U.S. coast, with the bulk of the ridge lying between Bermuda and the Azores.

Frank

however, with the strong blocking high over alaska, that is causing a trough in the rockies, it is changing the pattern in the southeast and atlantic, making a strong bermuda high, much like the pattern in 2004, the pattern is changing from what it has been

[Frank2]

LOL (or LO-LOW since I'm at work)

[Huckster]

If I remember correctly, most of the models did not turn Emily sharply, causing it to go north of the Islands. Rather, they did not get the strength and orientation of the ridge right, thus taking the storm farther north than it actually went. In this case, we've got a strong trough digging ahead of the disturbance, so there shouldn't be much doubt as to why this thing is being turned north so quickly in the models. Sometimes, there are valid arguments about overestimating troughs, underestimating ridges, "how can a storm go straight through a ridge," etc., but as of now, the possible storm is moving rather slowly, it seems to be organizing, and the offending trough is clearly visible, and digging. Maybe if it does not organize, it can slide farther south, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[cycloneye]

A RATHER DEEP
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS SETTING UP IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A LOW
NEAR 33N43W SSW TO 18N50W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
DIGGING... EXTENDING FAR INTO THE TROPICS TOMORROW AND MAY
AFFECT THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 11N41W.

.

SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE.
HOWEVER THE GFS SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE W OF
50W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH LOCKS
INTO PLACE.


The above from 2 PM Discussion:

Looks like the trough will be a big player.

[Frank2]

Re: cycloneye's post

This is what several of us were noting, and the TCD has expanded on that even further.

Frank

[sma10]

FWIW, the Euro places this disturbance just north of PR north coast on Friday 12Z

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5081212!!/

[Frank2]

Re: jason0509's post

It's still too early to say, but, I'd say that the season so far (with the exception of Emily and Dennis) is turning out statistically as forecast, but not as forecast when it comes to the increasing number of recurving systems.

If the disturbance does recurve into the trough, then that would amount to four consecutive Atlantic systems (Franklin, Harvey, Irene and possibly Jose, not counting Gert's short lifespan in the Gulf) that have not made landfall - I wonder if there is a record being set in that category!

Frank