TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

Hey guys check out the 00Z model output for the GFDL on TD10. What do you guys think of it?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

i think nothing because its not available

[mahicks]

Hey guys check out the 00Z model output for the GFDL on TD10. What do you guys think of it?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

i think nothing because its not available

The Model Plots are working again

[Ivanhater]

Hey guys check out the 00Z model output for the GFDL on TD10. What do you guys think of it?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

i think nothing because its not available

The Model Plots are working again

i know but gfdl is not on td10

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey guys check out the 00Z model output for the GFDL on TD10. What do you guys think of it?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

i think nothing because its not available

The Model Plots are working again

i know but gfdl is not on td10

Ivanhater, yes it is. You just need to refresh your browser. Its already there. maybe its cause Im using Netscape which allows me to use either Internet Explorer or Firefox versions. Its there trust me.

<RICKY>

[JTD]

What does it show?

[Ivanhater]

Hey guys check out the 00Z model output for the GFDL on TD10. What do you guys think of it?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

i think nothing because its not available

The Model Plots are working again

i know but gfdl is not on td10

Ivanhater, yes it is. You just need to refresh your browser. Its already there. maybe its cause Im using Netscape which allows me to use either Internet Explorer or Firefox versions. Its there trust me.

<RICKY>

gfdl is on for invest96 but not td10, but if its on for td10 then maybe my browser hasnt updated....if thats true, if you dont mind explain what its doing....gfdl on invest96 had it going north of the islands and was the left outlier

[SkeetoBite]

[cinlfla]

how come the ukmet is not on the model map?

[SkeetoBite]

Hmmm... may be something in our parsing. Checking into it...

[Brent]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_10.gif

GFDL is the pinkish color south of the NHC's track(red).

[gkrangers]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

GFDL is the pinkish color south of the NHC's track(red).

Good description for the legend impaired.

[sma10]

how come the ukmet is not on the model map?

The UKMet has not yet recognized TD10. Tonights 0Z will be the first run.

[cinlfla]

alrighty, I was just curious thanks

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My center placement is 14.7/45.2...It is partly exposed on the western/southwest side. I give it based on this a 2.5/2.5...

This is not a offical nhc/noaa est it is my own.

[sma10]

My center placement is 14.7/45.2...It is partly exposed on the western/southwest side. I give it based on this a 2.5/2.5...

This is not a offical nhc/noaa est it is my own.

The latest T number at 2345 is 2.0 and the center is placed at 14.3 45.4. Your estimate on position is not bad, but it looks like the center is even further removed from the convection. I think you're going to have a long wait to see this system upgraded. TD10 is really getting ripped right now. I'd be very interested to see if this thing can hold on over the next couple of days.

[elysium]

T.D. 10 is starting to get interesting. We should begin seeing a strong shift left earlier than is currently anticipated. The trough that is hampering T.D. 10's development right now is being quickly shunted eastward while T.D. 10 meanders pretty much in place with only a slow N.W. drift. The trough will clearly be unable to pick up T.D. 10., that's nothing new. What is new is that the trough is moving out faster than indicated, so the turn to the west should occur at a lower latitude and earlier.

This will position T.D. 10 to the north of Puerto Rico at around 21N. That's when a second trough is scheduled to arrive on the scene. It's this second trough that is intriguing.

It too will fail to pick up T.D. 10 because just when it seemed like the subtropical ridge would never develop, there is strong reason to believe that it will be reinforced by a strong ridge which will move in from the central states and position over the southeast; possible southern Georgia/ N. Florida. Now this isn't showing up clearly on the models just yet, but this is what the models are hinting at. This is intriguing because the second trough is not forecast to be a very deep trough, but will weaken or even create a gap between the southeastern inland ridge and the subtropical ridge, but this gap or weakness will quickly fill in.

It is clear that the models will soon shift left and call for a turn to the west earlier. T.D. 10 should position to the north of Puerto Rico with no problem, on a westward heading where, soon thereafter, it encounters the ridge weakness or gap. It looks like what by that time is Jose will slow down in forward speed or possibly move NNW and then quickly resume a westward heading again.

The main question will be the position of the ridge over the southeast and its strength after the second trough quickly moves out. Since the ridge is building in powerfully now causing the first trough to quickly exit, the overall ridge scenario has greatly changed, and with it the type of strength we can expect in any ridge positioning over the southeast. It looks like strong ridging over the southeast in 8 to 10 days, assisted by a stronger subtropical ridge, although not the best subtropical ridge. However, the problems with it will be well east of Jose, and while it may cause storms to fish that are in the east Atlantic, good timing will allow Jose not to have to contend with those weaknesses. It is also safe to say that Jose will have very good conditions for development in front of him once he positions to the north of Puerto Rico.

This is shaping up to be a major hurricane for the east coast. The only possibility for recurvature is right now. You can forget about that second trough pulling this one out. If T.D. 10 picks up forward speed right now, it will recurve. If it doesn't, very soon the models will shift to the west in a big way. Actually, we should begin to see that in the 11pm. Once the models shift left, they wil never shift right again. T.D. 10 must recurve right now or not at all. It does not appear that recurvature is very likely at this time, but is possible.

[Anonymous]

How much does it cost?

[gkrangers]

118
WHXX01 KWBC 140100
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050814 0000 050814 1200 050815 0000 050815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 45.3W 16.0N 46.3W 17.3N 47.2W 18.5N 48.4W
BAMM 14.7N 45.3W 15.6N 46.2W 16.4N 47.2W 17.2N 48.3W
A98E 14.7N 45.3W 16.0N 46.6W 17.3N 47.8W 18.8N 48.9W
LBAR 14.7N 45.3W 16.3N 46.2W 17.9N 47.0W 19.5N 48.1W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050816 0000 050817 0000 050818 0000 050819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 49.6W 21.5N 52.2W 23.2N 55.3W 25.6N 58.0W
BAMM 17.9N 49.6W 19.2N 52.4W 20.9N 56.1W 23.3N 59.6W
A98E 20.4N 50.1W 24.0N 52.3W 26.1N 54.0W 27.9N 53.6W
LBAR 21.1N 49.2W 25.2N 52.0W 29.4N 53.2W 31.9N 50.3W
SHIP 39KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 39KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 43.9W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 42.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow by that models I was very close.

[WeatherEmperor]

T.D. 10 is starting to get interesting. We should begin seeing a strong shift left earlier than is currently anticipated. The trough that is hampering T.D. 10's development right now is being quickly shunted eastward while T.D. 10 meanders pretty much in place with only a slow N.W. drift. The trough will clearly be unable to pick up T.D. 10., that's nothing new. What is new is that the trough is moving out faster than indicated, so the turn to the west should occur at a lower latitude and earlier.

This will position T.D. 10 to the north of Puerto Rico at around 21N. That's when a second trough is scheduled to arrive on the scene. It's this second trough that is intriguing.

It too will fail to pick up T.D. 10 because just when it seemed like the subtropical ridge would never develop, there is strong reason to believe that it will be reinforced by a strong ridge which will move in from the central states and position over the southeast; possible southern Georgia/ N. Florida. Now this isn't showing up clearly on the models just yet, but this is what the models are hinting at. This is intriguing because the second trough is not forecast to be a very deep trough, but will weaken or even create a gap between the southeastern inland ridge and the subtropical ridge, but this gap or weakness will quickly fill in.

It is clear that the models will soon shift left and call for a turn to the west earlier. T.D. 10 should position to the north of Puerto Rico with no problem, on a westward heading where, soon thereafter, it encounters the ridge weakness or gap. It looks like what by that time is Jose will slow down in forward speed or possibly move NNW and then quickly resume a westward heading again.

The main question will be the position of the ridge over the southeast and its strength after the second trough quickly moves out. Since the ridge is building in powerfully now causing the first trough to quickly exit, the overall ridge scenario has greatly changed, and with it the type of strength we can expect in any ridge positioning over the southeast. It looks like strong ridging over the southeast in 8 to 10 days, assisted by a stronger subtropical ridge, although not the best subtropical ridge. However, the problems with it will be well east of Jose, and while it may cause storms to fish that are in the east Atlantic, good timing will allow Jose not to have to contend with those weaknesses. It is also safe to say that Jose will have very good conditions for development in front of him once he positions to the north of Puerto Rico.

This is shaping up to be a major hurricane for the east coast. The only possibility for recurvature is right now. You can forget about that second trough pulling this one out. If T.D. 10 picks up forward speed right now, it will recurve. If it doesn't, very soon the models will shift to the west in a big way. Actually, we should begin to see that in the 11pm. Once the models shift left, they wil never shift right again. T.D. 10 must recurve right now or not at all. It does not appear that recurvature is very likely at this time, but is possible.

wow that was a very lenghty discussion and nicely written too.

<RICKY>