TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

Cycloneye-- Are you posting an image of Jose?

Looks like 99L to me.

[artist]

this is from the Miami - seems they mentioned it in the earlier discussions -

FXUS62 KMFL 231402
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.UPDATE...WEAK UPPER/SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE S FLA WX
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MFL 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVELS HAVE
COOLED WHILE MID LEVELS HAVE WARMED STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
SOMEWHAT. SO PLAN TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE EAST CST BACK TO SCT
COVERAGE AND LEAVING LIKELY ELSEWHERE. ALSO PLAN TO ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFMFL) THIS AFTERNOON FOR S FLA. THE WAVE
OVER EASTERN CUBA STILL PROGGED TO COME ACROSS US LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND GUIDANCE SHOWS WELL IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES
TOTAL RAINFALL ALONG E CST ENDING 12Z SUN. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY OVER THE
METRO AREAS BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER.

and from the Keys -

FXUS62 KEYW 230714
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.FORECAST...
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AGRESSIVE WITH REDEVELOPING WHAT IS THE REMNANTS
OF TD 10 AND PUTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. BUT THIS MODEL HAS NOT
BEEN INITIALIZING WELL RECENTLY. GFS SEEMS MORE REALISTIC INITIALLY
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA AND WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING S/SW FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT HAS
BECOME MORE BLAND WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH/POTENTIAL LOW
PULLING ACROSS THE STRAITS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY OFF INTO
THE GULF. ALTHOUGH IT DOES HAVE CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF...AND THE UKMET...IT IS NOW MORE DELAYED AND WEAKER IN THE
LATE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY) WITH ITS SOUTHERN
FEED FROM LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. AND THEN IT DRIES THE LOCAL AREA
IN THE MID LEVELS BUT MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. AT THIS
TIME...SEE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO ADJUST THE PERIODS BEYOND THURSDAY
DUE TO INTENSITY AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. IN THE
SHORTER TERM...THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS DEEP AND LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. SETS THE STAGE FOR A REPEAT TODAY OF WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS FAR AS SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS NEAR
AND ALONG THE ISLANDS. PROBABLY EVEN MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THANKS TO A DEEPER REACH OF MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. DO LIKE THE
HIGHER GFS POPS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY...AND PLAN TO FOLLOW THAT
CLOSELY. THAT SAID...GRIDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE SAME COULD BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
WILL LEAVE OUR HIGH CHANCE POPS WHERE THEY ARE AT. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THESE PERIODS INCREASED IN THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.

[vacanechaser]

Lookinf at a zoomed in loop from the NASA sat site,

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

I noticed what appears to be another low level center trying to form closer to the upper low. It is embedded with in the Bahamas stran themselves.... It is certainly noticable if you lopp the image and crank up the speed a bit... We may be seeing 2 fightning to take over.... Interesting to see what recon sees..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye-- Are you posting an image of Jose?

No the image is at the Bahamas system.

[Sanibel]

Figures, as soon as I write it off it starts forming...

[artist]

noticed that myself vacanechaser

[cycloneye]

[bvigal]

Not 'pull' artist, just a good friend.

[storms in NC]

Hmm, so we have a developing system within a few hundred miles of south florida, with some of the hottest water on the planet, low shear and steering currents that aren't going to take it out to sea. Seems the ULL to the northwest might be the only inhibiting factor?

Too bad the only buoy is at Settlement Point Grand Bahama.

Local NWS offices are not mentioning the system in this morning's discussions. The only current discussion is this morning's TWD:

Code: Select all

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N77W NE OVER E CUBA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 27N72W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS COLLOCATED BENEATH
A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N73W WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
MOVING W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRIMARILY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS TO THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND TWO LARGE AREAS SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO 22N73W NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND A SECOND AREA WITHIN 120 NM NM OF LINE FROM 27N72W
TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE UPPER LOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE
N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WITH THE
LOW SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Latest steering currents: (cropped image from Steering Layer : 700-850 hPa)

If that is the steering pattern then there is more than just Fla here that needs to keep a eye on this. Like Ga up to NC. But it just might go into Fla we will know more later. I have two Kids in Ft Myers so I hope they stay safe

[jasons2k]

I don't understand all the ruckus over the floaters...

You get just as good or better from the GOES 12 if you ZOOM:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Sanibel]

I could be wrong, but in my years of storm watching that looks like cyclogenesis...

[chadtm80]

Floater one is over 99L.. Just takes longer for some ISP's.. But everyone should be seeing it soon enough

[jasons2k]

And medium setting zoom:

[gkrangers]

I could be wrong, but in my years of storm watching that looks like cyclogenesis...

Would you mind elaborating?

[jasons2k]

Lookinf at a zoomed in loop from the NASA sat site,

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

I noticed what appears to be another low level center trying to form closer to the upper low. It is embedded with in the Bahamas stran themselves.... It is certainly noticable if you lopp the image and crank up the speed a bit... We may be seeing 2 fightning to take over.... Interesting to see what recon sees..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think the spin within Bahamas may be mid or upper-level, while the LLC is closer to Cuba, 22.7/75.2 area. It was much easier to discern this AM before the convective blowup.

I really think this is the real deal b/c the convection this time is not part of the diurnal cycle as it has been for over a week. This is definitely a daytime organization.

[Recurve]

Yep, there was a delay in the URL updating, sorry for the false alarm regarding the posted image.

Here is the statement from the 11:30 a.m. TWO:

Code: Select all

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[jasons2k]

I could be wrong, but in my years of storm watching that looks like cyclogenesis...

I think you are right

[Javlin]

Hmm, so we have a developing system within a few hundred miles of south florida, with some of the hottest water on the planet, low shear and steering currents that aren't going to take it out to sea. Seems the ULL to the northwest might be the only inhibiting factor?

Too bad the only buoy is at Settlement Point Grand Bahama.

Local NWS offices are not mentioning the system in this morning's discussions. The only current discussion is this morning's TWD:

Code: Select all

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N77W NE OVER E CUBA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 27N72W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS COLLOCATED BENEATH
A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N73W WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
MOVING W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRIMARILY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS TO THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND TWO LARGE AREAS SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO 22N73W NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND A SECOND AREA WITHIN 120 NM NM OF LINE FROM 27N72W
TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE UPPER LOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE
N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WITH THE
LOW SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Latest steering currents: (cropped image from Steering Layer : 700-850 hPa)

If that is the steering pattern then there is more than just Fla here that needs to keep a eye on this. Like Ga up to NC. But it just might go into Fla we will know more later. I have two Kids in Ft Myers so I hope they stay safe

I think that these are upper steering currents and our system has not built to those heights yet.It will all depend on development but I am thinking W and WNW.It can go around an ULL but not thruogh it.

[WeatherEmperor]

dont forget its also moving very slowly.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS at 168 hours:



That's 99L just off the GA coast, after having moved up the FL peninsula as a weak system.

97L is out in the middle Atlantic.

And the wave just now coming off Africa is a hurricane in the windward islands.

-------

Personally, I still think 99L gets into the Gulf. The other two systems look reasonably likely to me.