Hurricane Jova at CPAC

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST SUN SEP 18 2005

HURRICANE JOVA MADE A BIT OF A RIGHT TURN AND INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION TOWARD 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. DVORAK NUMBERS FROM CPHC AND AFWA CAME IN AT 90 KNOTS WHILE JTWC REMAINED AT 65 KNOTS. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS. FROM A LARGER PERSPECTIVE...THE EXPECTED OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHICH SHOULD PULL JOVA TOWARD COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BY DAY 5.

JOVA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 90 KNOTS THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY DAY 4. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE THOUGH HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFDL THUS KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. SHIPS DROPS JOVA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAY 5 BUT FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO DRASTIC.

THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE RATHER TIGHTLY GROUPED ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS. GFDL PROJECTS A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND IS THE NORTHEASTERN OUTLIER WHILE UKMET IS THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTLIER. GUNS...GUNA...CONU AND NOGAPS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL THOUGH THE NOGAPS IS A BIT FASTER.

FORECASTER KODAMA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 14.1N 140.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.6N 141.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 15.2N 143.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 15.7N 144.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.2N 145.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 17.3N 147.1W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 18.6N 148.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 21.7N 149.9W 60 KT



$$

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST SUN SEP 18 2005

HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CPHC AND SAB CAME UP WITH T NUMBERS OF 5.0...AND CPHC GOT AN AODT OF 4.7. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING JOVA ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE RIGHT IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE NORTH THROUGH WEST OF HAWAII. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH CONU GUNA AND GUNS...WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS...THE OTHER OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SPREAD OUT THEREAFTER.

THE FARTHER NORTH JOVA MOVES...THE COOLER THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL ENCOUNTER. THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORECAST INTENSITY AFTER 12 HOURS REFLECTS THIS. ALSO...THE CLOSER IT GETS TO THE UPPER TROUGH THE GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR IT WILL SEE. BY 96 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

FORECASTER CRAIG


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.1N 141.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 142.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 15.1N 143.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 15.7N 144.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 16.1N 145.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 16.9N 147.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 18.0N 148.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 148.9W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPA43 PHFO 190231
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SUN SEP 18 2005

HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME PACE AS 6 HOURS AGO. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CPHC AND GWC ARRIVED AT FINAL T NUMBERS OF 5.0...WHILE JTWC CAME IN AT 4.5. AODTS OF 5.0 WERE DERIVED BY BOTH CPHC AND JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS AT 90 KT.

TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING JOVA ON A NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE RIGHT IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH THROUGH WEST OF HAWAII. JOVA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CLOSELY CLUSTERED CONU GUNA GUNS AND ENSEMBLES. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS...THE OTHER OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE ALSO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SPREAD OUT THEREAFTER.

THE FARTHER NORTH JOVA MOVES...THE COOLER THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL ENCOUNTER. THE FORECAST DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS HAS BEEN DELAYED...AS JOVA WILL BE OVER WARM WATER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CLOSER JOVA GETS TO THE UPPER TROUGH THE GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR IT WILL SEE. BY 96 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

FORECASTER CRAIG


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.6N 141.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.2N 142.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.3N 144.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 16.9N 145.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.7N 146.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 19.3N 147.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 21.6N 149.0W 55 KT

[WindRunner]

This is one of the most interesting discussions I've read in a while.

Jova
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST MON SEP 19 2005

DUE TO COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS WE WERE UNABLE TO RECEIVE UPDATED
MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY ENOUGH FOR THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER SYNOPTICS HAVE
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE AND HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER WE HAVE
INCREASED THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO A 5.5 OR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
TO 100 KNOTS OR 115 MPH. SOME UPPER LEVEL SHEARING ALONG WITH LESS
THAN 80 DEGF SEAS AHEAD OF JOVA WARRANTS THE WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTER MATSUDA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.6N 143.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 143.9W 100 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 16.4N 144.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 16.9N 145.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 146.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 19.1N 147.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 20.8N 147.9W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 22.7N 149.6W 60 KT


$$


WWWW

[Brent]

HAHA!!!!