I spent the evening at Dinghy Dock for the celebration of my friend's birthday...talked to many people, one of whom is the producer of a show that is big in Puerto Rico (which, since I don't watch television, I had no clue - and still don't), really nice guy who fell into our birthday party and into Culebra joy - singing all the celebratroy songs in Spanish and helping us all sing along .
He came over on a boat out of Fajardo and I tried to tell him about what you said Luis, and warn him to head back tomorrow, and he didn't listen. It made me think of so many others...
Anyway. It was a beautiful day today and tomorrow will be tomorrow,
Big Rain Event is over for Puerto Rico,USVI,BVI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Well caribepr you told him to get back but didn't so now when the weather turns bad he will remember you.
If all pans out as advertise by the models this will be a very bad weather event for the northern Caribbean Islands and there are signs tonight of a possible low forming south of Hispanola that will move eastward.
If all pans out as advertise by the models this will be a very bad weather event for the northern Caribbean Islands and there are signs tonight of a possible low forming south of Hispanola that will move eastward.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
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Hyperstorm
- Category 5
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If a low pressure develops north of Puerto Rico late in the weekend, don't expect any tropical formation out of it. The large upper trough NE of the Lesser Antilles should make sure that doesn't happen as it moves westward. It will just likely be a low pressure wave along the trough which could very well produce torrential rainfall in the areas affected by it.
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 148497
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AWCA82 TJSJ 080944 CCA
RWSPR
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED BY DOPPLER RADAR LINGERING
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
AND OFF SHORE NORTHWEST WATERS. HOWEVER...BY 4 AM SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES AND VIEQUES TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
LOOK FOR FAIR TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST
AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
HOWEVER...BY NOON TIME...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SLOPES...AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING. THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST AND EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
BEGIN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...MOVING
WESTWARD. THIS IS A VERY ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND IT WILL
BEGIN TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE HAS DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS IT MOVES WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A VERY
COMPLEX PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND COMBINE WITH THIS STRONG UPPER LOW TO
PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DAY OR
NIGHT...ACROSS ANY OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OR WATERS. LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING.
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE DOMINATED ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC BY MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS...KEEPING SEAS AROUND 6 FEET.
AS THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AND COULD BECOME STRONG...IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. MARINERS REMAIN ALERT FOR INTENSE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
RWSPR
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED BY DOPPLER RADAR LINGERING
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
AND OFF SHORE NORTHWEST WATERS. HOWEVER...BY 4 AM SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES AND VIEQUES TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
LOOK FOR FAIR TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST
AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
HOWEVER...BY NOON TIME...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SLOPES...AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING. THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST AND EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
BEGIN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...MOVING
WESTWARD. THIS IS A VERY ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND IT WILL
BEGIN TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE HAS DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS IT MOVES WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A VERY
COMPLEX PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND COMBINE WITH THIS STRONG UPPER LOW TO
PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DAY OR
NIGHT...ACROSS ANY OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OR WATERS. LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING.
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE DOMINATED ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC BY MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS...KEEPING SEAS AROUND 6 FEET.
AS THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AND COULD BECOME STRONG...IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. MARINERS REMAIN ALERT FOR INTENSE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ZFPPR
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
PRZ001-090115-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF...BAYAMON...CAROLINA...CATANO...
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...TRUJILLO ALTO
517 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 89 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 78 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS
79 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS
82 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS
78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY...CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS
87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 73 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE EVENING. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 88 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 77 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
The probabilities of rain are between 80% and 90% chance of rain on sunday and monday.
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
PRZ001-090115-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF...BAYAMON...CAROLINA...CATANO...
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...TRUJILLO ALTO
517 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 89 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 78 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS
79 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS
82 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS
78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY...CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS
87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 73 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE EVENING. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 88 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 77 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
The probabilities of rain are between 80% and 90% chance of rain on sunday and monday.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-091030-
630 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO CREATE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MOVE WEST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONS TO GENERATE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
MOISTENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THEN SHIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND GUT
FLOODING. INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS.
MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND ARE MAINTAINING SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP
CURRENTS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TO CREATE AN EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE
SAME TIME...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING IN BOTH DEPTH AND
QUANTITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND VERY HEAVY...AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES PERSISTING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OR
OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND COULD INDIRECTLY INCREASE THE
LOCAL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...AND EVENTUALLY GENERATE MODERATE
TO LARGE SWELLS THAT WOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.
This is getting serious now as the above statement says.
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Good morning everyone,
I am quite new to this site. I see that you are discussing bad weather in and around the islands in which I live.
Simple question...which may sound very uneducated to you all, but with what I am reading here with regards to island weather, what can I expect here in the Turks and Caicos over the next few days?
I am having a very hard time finding a site that can deliver accurate weather information for here on this island.
my thanks in advance.
gretchen
I am quite new to this site. I see that you are discussing bad weather in and around the islands in which I live.
Simple question...which may sound very uneducated to you all, but with what I am reading here with regards to island weather, what can I expect here in the Turks and Caicos over the next few days?
I am having a very hard time finding a site that can deliver accurate weather information for here on this island.
my thanks in advance.
gretchen
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greels wrote:Good morning everyone,
I am quite new to this site. I see that you are discussing bad weather in and around the islands in which I live.
Simple question...which may sound very uneducated to you all, but with what I am reading here with regards to island weather, what can I expect here in the Turks and Caicos over the next few days?
I am having a very hard time finding a site that can deliver accurate weather information for here on this island.
my thanks in advance.
gretchen
Welcome! One site I found from googling was:
http://www.turksandcaicos.tc/weather/
It seems to have a fair amount of good local sources.
But there were many more you might want to check out (you can go crazy doing that!)
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cycloneye wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-091030-
630 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO CREATE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MOVE WEST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONS TO GENERATE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
MOISTENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THEN SHIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND GUT
FLOODING. INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS.
MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND ARE MAINTAINING SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP
CURRENTS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TO CREATE AN EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE
SAME TIME...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING IN BOTH DEPTH AND
QUANTITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND VERY HEAVY...AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES PERSISTING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OR
OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND COULD INDIRECTLY INCREASE THE
LOCAL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...AND EVENTUALLY GENERATE MODERATE
TO LARGE SWELLS THAT WOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.
This is getting serious now as the above statement says.
Ok, I agree, this sounds serious.."explosively unstable atmosphere" gets my attention.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
.DISCUSSION...WHAT A BEAUTIFUL MORNING!...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A LIGHT AND EVEN CALM WIND FLOW. IS
YOU THINK...THIS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKE THE ONE I`M
DESCRIBING ABOVE...YOU`RE WRONG. BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE
EXPECTING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE SECTORS OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. BUT THIS IS NOT
OVER...FOR THE REST OF THIS COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...THINGS ARE NOT
GOING TO GET BETTER. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM
ALL THE CARDINAL POINTS TOWARD PUERTO RICO...WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING..DAY OR NIGHT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.
STAY TUNE...FOR MORE WEATHER COVERAGE UPDATE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THIS IS A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND IT WILL BEGIN TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS DEVELOPED
UNDERNEATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND WILL ACCOMPANY IT AS IT MOVES
WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SETUP WILL BRING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SYNONYM FOR THIS IS
TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DAY OR NIGHT...ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OR COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE DOMINATED ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS...KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. HAVING IN MIND...THE TYPE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS AN EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND THEN SORT OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AND COULD BECOME STRONG...IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY INTENSE AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS...AND KEEP
MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY... SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM THE COPIOUS RAINFALL OF
THE PAST WEEK...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AFFECTED MORE EASILY AND FASTER THAN OTHERS.
Thanks caribepr for providing the link to the new member as I was searching but could not find it.
Look how the discussion starts.
It's partly cloudy in San Juan this morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005
.DISCUSSION...WHAT A BEAUTIFUL MORNING!...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A LIGHT AND EVEN CALM WIND FLOW. IS
YOU THINK...THIS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKE THE ONE I`M
DESCRIBING ABOVE...YOU`RE WRONG. BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE
EXPECTING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE SECTORS OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. BUT THIS IS NOT
OVER...FOR THE REST OF THIS COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...THINGS ARE NOT
GOING TO GET BETTER. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM
ALL THE CARDINAL POINTS TOWARD PUERTO RICO...WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING..DAY OR NIGHT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.
STAY TUNE...FOR MORE WEATHER COVERAGE UPDATE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THIS IS A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND IT WILL BEGIN TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS DEVELOPED
UNDERNEATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND WILL ACCOMPANY IT AS IT MOVES
WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SETUP WILL BRING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SYNONYM FOR THIS IS
TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DAY OR NIGHT...ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OR COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE DOMINATED ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS...KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. HAVING IN MIND...THE TYPE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS AN EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND THEN SORT OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AND COULD BECOME STRONG...IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY INTENSE AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS...AND KEEP
MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY... SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM THE COPIOUS RAINFALL OF
THE PAST WEEK...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AFFECTED MORE EASILY AND FASTER THAN OTHERS.
Thanks caribepr for providing the link to the new member as I was searching but could not find it.
Look how the discussion starts.
It's partly cloudy in San Juan this morning.
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
caribepr what happened to your post about the first part of discussion? 
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: British Virgin Islands
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Welcome to S2K, Gretchen! You should put your location on your profile, for those who might not read your post here. I think you are the first one here from Turks & Caicos!
Luis, after reading this morning's doom & gloom (though they are excellent discussions!), I'm really becoming concerned about mudslides. Yes, it's rainy season, but it has started early and I believe PR has had much wetter than normal summer, no?
Here on our "arid" isles, we recorded a total of almost 8" from Sunday 7am to Wednesday 7am. Our average monthly rainfall in October is 5".
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Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
WOW, you can easily see the very strong divergence scenario over Puerto Rico and just west of it. This could be very dangerous as the upper trough moves westward and parks north of the islands. You can already see the very strong convection persisting just east of the Lesser Antilles this morning.
Thankfully, this time there is not a tropical wave to play with, so hopefully, it won't be a historic flooding event (As many know, some of the worst flooding events that have occured over the islands have been due to a combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave.).
However, don't let your guard down. Everyone in the US/British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, but especially Puerto Rico should be very vigilant due to the saturated soils from the last big rain event...
Thankfully, this time there is not a tropical wave to play with, so hopefully, it won't be a historic flooding event (As many know, some of the worst flooding events that have occured over the islands have been due to a combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave.).
However, don't let your guard down. Everyone in the US/British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, but especially Puerto Rico should be very vigilant due to the saturated soils from the last big rain event...
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
And what do you think the Leewards will see the next couple of days?
And also, what about the Windwards, will they be south of most of the bad weather?
Sorry, don't mean to sound demanding, just have friends all down the islands, and we have members here too, who may be wondering...
Gloria "bvigal"
And also, what about the Windwards, will they be south of most of the bad weather?
Sorry, don't mean to sound demanding, just have friends all down the islands, and we have members here too, who may be wondering...
Gloria "bvigal"
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Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
bvigal...
I think the Leeward islands should expect the same kind of situation as the Virgin islands, which is persistent heavy rain. One good thing is that there is not a widespread range of mountains over those islands, which should keep them from receiving the worst weather. This should definitely persist well into next week due to the trough that is expected to be situated north of the islands throughout that time. However, the heaviest rainfall should fall during the day today and may extend into the day tomorrow, whereas, in Puerto Rico the worst weather should start tomorrow and extend into Monday and Tuesday.
The Windward islands should only see the usual passing afternoon showers as the trough is located well north of them.
I think the Leeward islands should expect the same kind of situation as the Virgin islands, which is persistent heavy rain. One good thing is that there is not a widespread range of mountains over those islands, which should keep them from receiving the worst weather. This should definitely persist well into next week due to the trough that is expected to be situated north of the islands throughout that time. However, the heaviest rainfall should fall during the day today and may extend into the day tomorrow, whereas, in Puerto Rico the worst weather should start tomorrow and extend into Monday and Tuesday.
The Windward islands should only see the usual passing afternoon showers as the trough is located well north of them.
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Well...we didn't even get half a day. The rain started as soon as I got to Dinghy Dock for a coffee before opening the cart. It is now one hour later, I'm back home. The roads are flooded out, my yard is covered (as in flooded) in water, and it is slowing down, but not stopping. I'd say we got maybe 4 or more inches of rain in one hour? Mr. Kunke, who keeps track of our rain here, will tell the amount on Stormcarib I'm sure.
And...this isn't even the event...on the radar, it just looked like a cell directly over Culebra. WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Ok, I feel better now. I think we are...well...the cart is CLOSED.
And...this isn't even the event...on the radar, it just looked like a cell directly over Culebra. WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Ok, I feel better now. I think we are...well...the cart is CLOSED.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
caribepr wrote:Well...we didn't even get half a day. The rain started as soon as I got to Dinghy Dock for a coffee before opening the cart. It is now one hour later, I'm back home. The roads are flooded out, my yard is covered (as in flooded) in water, and it is slowing down, but not stopping. I'd say we got maybe 4 or more inches of rain in one hour? Mr. Kunke, who keeps track of our rain here, will tell the amount on Stormcarib I'm sure.
And...this isn't even the event...on the radar, it just looked like a cell directly over Culebra. WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Ok, I feel better now. I think we are...well...the cart is CLOSED.
Wow it started very early there and you said it right the big stuff is not yet on sight yet.
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