Tropical Storm Gordon=Last Advisory Written by NHC

[cycloneye]

376
WTNT42 KNHC 182042
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006

GORDON IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH A WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND A NEARLY COMPLETE COLD CLOUD RING. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS LIKEWISE KEPT AT 80 KT. GORDON IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND WILL BE OVER 24 C SSTS TOMORROW...THOUGH THE
DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF COOLING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES
MAY SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE REDUCTION IN SSTS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT ABOUT 20 KT...SHOULD BECOME STRONGER
UNDER AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. AS SUGGESTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SHORTLY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE THE SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

GORDON IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...75 DEGREES AT 19 KT...WHICH
IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD
TRACK TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW
PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GORDON IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT QUICKLY
ACCELERATES AND IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NOGAPS AND
UKMET...SUGGEST INSTEAD THAT GORDON WILL RETAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NOGAPS...WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE TOO LARGE A VORTEX CARRIED FORWARD IN TIME.

ANALYSES FROM THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF
GORDON...HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM WOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
AZORES IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED
FOR THE AZORES. HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED IN THE AZORES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 37.8N 44.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 38.3N 40.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 38.5N 34.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 20/0600Z 39.2N 26.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/1800Z 41.3N 17.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[P.K.]

Down another 2hPa.

HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
800 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006

...GORDON MOVING FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
...HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE AZORES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 880 MILES...1415 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... GORDON WILL
BE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AZORES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...37.9 N...44.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[cycloneye]

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE AZORES
HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE AZORES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 785 MILES... 1265 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK GORDON WILL BE NEAR THE AZORES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...38.0 N...41.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[cycloneye]

185
WTNT42 KNHC 190228
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006

GORDON IS AN IMPRESSIVE HIGH-LATITUDE HURRICANE. IT HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A MOSTLY SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
CENTER... WHILE THE EYE RECENTLY HAS BEEN CONTRACTING. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT LEAST 77 KT... WHILE IN-HOUSE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 93 KT. A WELL-TIMED HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT
MICROWAVE OVER THE HURRICANE AT 2215 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85
KT. THUS THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 85 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
ABOVE ESTIMATES. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE HURRICANE
MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY IS COOLING UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...
WHICH WOULD GENERALLY KEEP A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN
NORMAL... AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... IT DOESN'T
SEEM LIKE GORDON CAN KEEP UP THIS INTENSITY FOR TOO MUCH LONGER
BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR... COOLER SSTS... AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TAKE THEIR TOLL. ALL OF THESE EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY NOT
WEAKEN GORDON VERY QUICKLY... AND IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE
AZORES. THEREFORE... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE
ISLANDS. HURRICANES ARE RARE BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED IN THE AZORES. A
QUICK CHECK OF THE 1851-2005 BEST TRACK DATABASE SHOWS THAT NINE
HURRICANES HAVE IMPACTED THE AZORES DURING THIS TIME... THE MOST
RECENT BEING CHARLEY OF 1992.

GORDON IS ZIPPING EASTWARD TONIGHT... 085/24. TRACK MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING WITH SOME
ACCELERATION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FAST
ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CATCHES
UP TO GORDON AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 40 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GORDON AS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE
ONCOMING TROUGH FOR A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER. THESE MODELS ALSO
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GORDON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THIS TROUGH BY
72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 38.0N 41.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 38.2N 37.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 38.3N 30.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 39.5N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/0000Z 42.0N 13.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[senorpepr]

WTNT32 KNHC 190831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON THE
AZORES ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF
HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE
38.7 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1010 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE
AZORES ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...38.1 N...38.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/24. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. GORDON IS NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING BY GORDON TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 55W
LONGITUDE SHOULD ENSURE THAT GORDON WILL MAINTAIN ITS RAPID
EASTERLY MOTION. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AZORES ISLANDS IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN AFTERWARD ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AS A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. THE EYE HAS REMAINED NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AND DISTINCT
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90
KT. GORDON'S FAST FORWARD SPEED IS MINIMIZING ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS
FROM THE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM
THE WEST...SO THE ONLY FACTORS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE
COOLER SSTS OF 22C-23C AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INDUCE ANY RAPID WEAKENING
BEFORE GORDON REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS. THEREFORE...GORDON IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AZORES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND
SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 38.1N 38.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 38.3N 33.6W 75 KT...APPROACHING AZORES
24HR VT 20/0600Z 38.8N 26.1W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 20/1800Z 40.8N 17.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/0600Z 43.6N 8.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT22 KNHC 190831
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 38.7W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 225SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 38.7W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 40.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.3N 33.6W...APPROACHING AZORES ISLANDS
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.8N 26.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 40.8N 17.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 75SE 75SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.6N 8.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

667
WTNT32 KNHC 191136
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
800 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...GORDON HEADING FOR THE AZORES...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.2 WEST OR ABOUT 525
MILES...845 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...38.1 N...37.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

859
WTNT42 KNHC 191433
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

THERE IS ONLY A HINT OF AN EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD
PATTERN REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT SUCH
HIGH LATITUDE...AND IT IS STILL DETACHED FROM ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE WEAKENING TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. SINCE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
24 HOURS. ALL PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT GORDON SHOULD
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SOON. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE.

GORDON IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING EASTWARD
OR 090 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SO
GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE
AZORES TODAY AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE ALREADY
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 38.0N 35.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 38.1N 30.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 21/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


084
WTNT32 KNHC 191434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...GORDON RACING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...
730 KM...WEST OF LAJES AIR FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...38.0 N...35.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

639
WTNT32 KNHC 191739
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
200 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...GORDON EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...
610 KM...WEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK NEAR 31 MPH...50
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE AZORES
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...37.8 N...34.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 192035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...TENACIOUS GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AZORES TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...
405 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS RACING EASTWARD NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...GORDON WILL BE CROSSING THE AZORES TONIGHT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...37.9 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

GORDON HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD
PATTERN AND IN FACT...THERE IS A CLOSED EYEWALL ON THE LATEST AMSU
PASS AT 1728 UTC...AND AN EYE FEATURE ON THE LATEST IR IMAGE.
EVEN THOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN...INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUPPORT 75 KNOTS. GORDON IS STILL DETACHED FROM THE COLD FRONT TO
THE NORTH BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE MOTION EXCEPT THAT THE HURRICANE IS
RACING EASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
STEERED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE AND WILL BE NEARING
PORTUGAL AND NORTHWEST SPAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OR BORRASCA...AS THEY CALL IT IN SPAIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 37.9N 31.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 38.1N 26.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 39.0N 18.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 21/0600Z 42.1N 10.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 192352
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
800 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...GORDON NEARING THE CENTRAL AZORES...

AT 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE AZORES
HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AZORES
ISLANDS OF CORVO AND FLORES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA AND ABOUT 240
MILES...385 KM...WEST OF THE ISLAND OF SAO MIGUEL IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS RACING EASTWARD NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GORDON
WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE
AZORES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...37.8 N...30.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

730
WTNT32 KNHC 200243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...GORDON MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL AZORES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AZORES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES AND ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...WEST OF THE ISLAND OF SAO MIGUEL IN THE
AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE AZORES IN A FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...37.7 N...28.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

862
WTNT42 KNHC 200244
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE RAGGED-LOOKING IN ITS APPEARANCE.
THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE AZORES...HOWEVER
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
GORDON WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE POST-GORDON CYCLONE COULD IMPACT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND/OR SPAIN AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
STORM. WITHIN 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.

GORDON IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC GYRE...AND THE MOTION CONTINUES NEAR
090/29. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
GORDON OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION WILL GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 37.7N 28.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 38.0N 22.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 40.5N 15.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 21/1200Z 44.0N 8.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 200553
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
200 AM AST WED SEP 20 2006

...GORDON RACING TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES...

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE AZORES HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AZORES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
60 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF SAO MIGUEL IN THE EASTERN
AZORES...AND ABOUT 90 MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...37.6 N...26.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[P.K.]

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006

AN EARLIER 0350Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONG
UPPER WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO AFFECT THE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE CENTER
DISPLACED AROUND 60 N MI WEST OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION.
BASED ON DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. A SURFACE OBSERVATION
WORTHY OF NOTE...AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE REPORTED A 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 49 KT WITH A GUST OF 71 KT FROM SANTA MARIA AIRPORT.

COOLER SEA SURFACES TEMPERATURES AND STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC
AFFECTS FROM THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...AND ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONT AND BECOMING A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 080/30. GORDON IS MOVING WITHIN THE
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OF A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW LOCATED ABOUT 500 N MI
WEST-NORTHWEST OF IRELAND. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE ECMWF
MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT GORDON WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW TOWARD THE BRITISH ISLES. POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA AND THE BRITISH ISLES SHOULD BE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 37.8N 24.2W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 20/1800Z 39.3N 19.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 21/0600Z 42.7N 13.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 21/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[cycloneye]

086
WTNT32 KNHC 201137
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
800 AM AST WED SEP 20 2006

...GORDON WEAKENING AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AZORES...

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN AZORES
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES..205 KM...EAST OF THE ISLAND OF SAO MIGUEL IN THE EASTERN
AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GORDON IS WEAKENING AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...37.8 N...22.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 201433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST WED SEP 20 2006

...GORDON RACING EASTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER
TODAY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.9 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...550 KM...EAST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES AND
ABOUT 625 MILES...1005 KM WEST OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION
WOULD BRING GORDON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM NEAR THE COASTS OF
PORTUGAL AND SPAIN ON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE GORDON
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...37.8 N...20.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[P.K.]

WTNT42 KNHC 201435
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006

GORDON HAS WEAKENED BUT IT IS RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT
STILL HAS A CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALREADY VERY NEAR THE CORE
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND GORDON SHOULD BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50
KNOTS AND ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.

GORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE WAVE. THIS MOTION
WOULD BRING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN BUT
BY THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED BY
THE COLD FRONT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 37.8N 20.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 15.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 21/1200Z 45.0N 11.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 201433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2006


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 20.9W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 29 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 200SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 225SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 20.9W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 22.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 15.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 200SE 200SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 45.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 20.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[P.K.]

Last advisory from RSMC Miami.

WTNT42 KNHC 202015
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006

AFTER NEARLY 10 DAYS TRAVELING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...TENACIOUS
GORDON IS FINALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
WILL CONTINUE RACING ON A GENERAL EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK
UNTIL IT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GORDON.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 39.2N 16.6W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 21/0600Z 42.0N 12.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[brunota2003]

AFTER NEARLY 10 DAYS TRAVELING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...TENACIOUS
GORDON

not the first time in the last two years we have heard that...question is, how many more times this year will we here it?

...GORDON FINALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...THIS THE LAST ADVISORY..

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 16.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380
MILES...625 KM...WEST OF LISBON PORTUGAL.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...39.2 N...16.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA