HH Helene Forecasts

[mtm4319]

These member forecasts are no-win. Have a track or intensity forecast that's close to the NHC, and people (not naming any particular names) will think you're copying them. Have one that deviates, and they question your reasoning. That's why I don't do any, even though I considered doing one or two recently.

[senorpepr]

These member forecasts are no-win. Have a track or intensity forecast that's close to the NHC, and people (not naming any particular names) will think you're copying them. Have one that deviates, and they question your reasoning. That's why I don't do any, even though I considered doing one or two recently.

Just with the NHC forecasts, if you present a forecast solution, be prepared to walk in front of the firing squad. It's not a sign of disrespect (usually). It's intended to present other possibilities.

Explain your reasoning and you're bound to receive debate. Meteorology is a field where not everything will pan out correctly every time and therefore everything yields numerous solutions.

Fail to provide reasoning and you're bound to be stoned. To pick certain products because it presents the highest wind speeds or whatever isn't going to win heart around these woods.

[Windtalker1]

I hear what your saying also....by Sunday she will not be 2500 miles away. Front will fizzle, high builds back in extending into the Atlantic, ridge over her now is expending West and Gordon is riding the ridge not forcing a weakness. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

So what you're saying is......

As the front fizzles, a high will build back and extend all the way east to bridge with the current high that is currently over Helene. Right?

Theoretically, this action is possible, but my question is (and has been): what special knowledge do you have that you can foresee this that every computer model is unable to see?

If I didn't have to leave for work in 15mins, i would explain my reasoning behind my so called "mad" predictions....You will have to wait till tonight for my explanations and graphics.....to back up my theory.

[Windtalker1]

I hear what your saying also....by Sunday she will not be 2500 miles away. Front will fizzle, high builds back in extending into the Atlantic, ridge over her now is expending West and Gordon is riding the ridge not forcing a weakness. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

So what you're saying is......

As the front fizzles, a high will build back and extend all the way east to bridge with the current high that is currently over Helene. Right?

Theoretically, this action is possible, but my question is (and has been): what special knowledge do you have that you can foresee this that every computer model is unable to see?

If I didn't have to leave for work in 15mins, i would explain my reasoning behind my so called "mad" predictions....You will have to wait till tonight for my explanations and graphics.....to back up my theory.

THE DISAGREEMENT SEEMS TO STEM FROM HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF THE NOGAPS IS CORRECT...ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND HELENE TO ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD. THE GFDL AND GFS...HOWEVER...FORECAST HELENE TO GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE BY ROUNDING THE RIDGE SUCH THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PICK UP HELENE. I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HELENE WILL BREAK DOWN THAT FAST... This has been my thinking all along (from 5am discussion)

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Helene weakens slightly on my forecast.

Even with the flare up of storms near the center we have lessened the winds and raised the pressure on Helene for this forecast. The winds are now estimated to be back at 45 MPH, in agreement, with a pressure of 1003 MB.

It is very hard to pinpoint the exact center and direction of Helene. However, we have Helene moving at the WNW near 16 MPH. Helene is expected to continue to slow down in speed. All the movements that Helene make today and this weekend could be crucial to its overall path.

The models continue to differ. The GFDL continues to suggest a sharp turn to the NW and North in the next 12-24 hours, so were not counting it in this advisory. Another notable model, the NOGAPS, which I feel has been tracking the storm nicely so far, has it continuing a westward motion and not heading north. With so many models heading in all different directions, we have decided to make this advisory cone south of the UKMET, but north of the NOGAPS. In other words, it should continue a WNW path for the net 36 hours, turning NW shortly, but turn back WNW. Overall, our new cone is more north than the previous one.

INITIAL 45 MPH
12HR VT 50 MPH
24HR VT 55 MPH
36HR VT 65 MPH
48HR VT 75 MPH
72HR VT 85 MPH
96HR VT 90 MPH
120HR VT 100 MPH

[Thunder44]

Your image link doesn't work.

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Storm Update:

Looking at recent radar and satellite loops have shown increasing orginization, and the NRL suggests wind speeds of 50KT and a lower pressure of 1000 MB. with the new data, I now regret weakining the storm in my forecast above, and i have brought it up to 55 MPH, with the 1000 MB pressure. the outflow is greatly improving, and it is starting to aquire some weak hurricane features. if strengthing continues, I will write up a special avisory.

[SouthFloridawx]

I hear what your saying also....by Sunday she will not be 2500 miles away. Front will fizzle, high builds back in extending into the Atlantic, ridge over her now is expending West and Gordon is riding the ridge not forcing a weakness. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

So what you're saying is......

As the front fizzles, a high will build back and extend all the way east to bridge with the current high that is currently over Helene. Right?

Theoretically, this action is possible, but my question is (and has been): what special knowledge do you have that you can foresee this that every computer model is unable to see?

If I didn't have to leave for work in 15mins, i would explain my reasoning behind my so called "mad" predictions....You will have to wait till tonight for my explanations and graphics.....to back up my theory.

THE DISAGREEMENT SEEMS TO STEM FROM HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF THE NOGAPS IS CORRECT...ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND HELENE TO ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD. THE GFDL AND GFS...HOWEVER...FORECAST HELENE TO GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE BY ROUNDING THE RIDGE SUCH THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PICK UP HELENE. I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HELENE WILL BREAK DOWN THAT FAST... This has been my thinking all along (from 5am discussion)

All this dicussion about the current trough taking Helene out is a bit Moot. The only exception to this is the possible threat to the Islands and slimly Bermuda. The deciding trough is the one over the W. CONUS not the one currently in position to force weakening of the ridge to pull her north. It is possible the trough does not incur enough westerlies to break down the ridge and keep her going. There is no way in my mind "currently" to see that Helene will make it to the US. Maybe, maybe, maybe and maybe the Islands and even more maybe to Bermuda.

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Helene a hurricane by our standards.

Over the past 12 hours, Helene has gone through rapid intensification. Although our estimates show a 70 MPH, we have Helene as a weak hurricane because we feel that the NHC will upgrade it in an hour or so now. Current estimated pressure is at 990 MB.

We still have Helene moving at the WNW near 16 MPH. All the movements that Helene make tonight and this weekend could be crucial to its overall path. We expect a path similar to this should continue for 24 hours now.

Run after run after run, the models continue to differ. We still favor the NOGAPS, which has been nearly perfect so far this year. Out new cone is slightly north of our previous one, and is a little south and west of majority models.

INITIAL 75 MPH
12HR VT 80 MPH
24HR VT 85 MPH
36HR VT 90 MPH
48HR VT 95 MPH
72HR VT 110 MPH
96HR VT 120 MPH
120HR VT 135 MPH

[Windtalker1]

And the westward march continues...well done forcast.

[Normandy]

Helene is NOT moving W, its moving NW

[tornadostalker]

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12.

So WNW motion

[sma10]

And the westward march continues...well done forcast.

What are you seeing? Since when is 300 degrees westward?

[sma10]

These member forecasts are no-win. Have a track or intensity forecast that's close to the NHC, and people (not naming any particular names) will think you're copying them. Have one that deviates, and they question your reasoning. That's why I don't do any, even though I considered doing one or two recently.

Do you think people should just put out forecasts without expecting their reasoning to be questioned??

Ok, fair enough.....

I predict Helene will strike Mobile, Alabama as a category 5 hurricane on the morning of September 23rd. My cat told me.

[Robjohn53]

And the westward march continues...well done forcast.

What are you seeing? Since when is 300 degrees westward?

Read the last advisory it says present movement toward the west- northwest or 300 degrees at 12 knots.

[stormchazer]

These member forecasts are no-win. Have a track or intensity forecast that's close to the NHC, and people (not naming any particular names) will think you're copying them. Have one that deviates, and they question your reasoning. That's why I don't do any, even though I considered doing one or two recently.

Do you think people should just put out forecasts without expecting their reasoning to be questioned??

Ok, fair enough.....

I predict Helene will strike Mobile, Alabama as a category 5 hurricane on the morning of September 23rd. My cat told me.

Cool! Where did your cat study Meteorology? Mine studied at "the U"!

[kenl01]

The only place to be affected by Helene is Bermuda. There's a trough in the NE that will be pulled SE, weaken the ridge north of Helene and turn it North later in the forecast period, just like Gordon and Florence did. This has been mentioned also in the latest NHC discussion. The East coast is safe............

[Thatsmrhurricane]

okay, sorry I have to say this . . .

Everybody knows cats study at MEU!

[jusforsean]

okay, sorry I have to say this . . .

Everybody knows cats study at MEU!

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Helene officially a hurricane now.

Organization has continued, and with better banding features, combined with a recent QUICKSCAT, and new Dvorak numbers, we have Helene as a 80 MPH hurricane, undergoing rapid intensification. The new pressure estimate is 990 MB.

Unfortunally, we can’t generate a new cone for this advisory due to lack of technology recourses this time. However, judging by the new models, our cone now shows a recurve, but more west than the NHC thinks it will be. We expect a recurve somewhere in-between 60W and 65W. The longitude on where it will turn, however, is very uncertain.

Speaking of the new models, the NOGAPS has stopped indicating a westward motion for the next 5 days. However, a few new 1200Z models indicate a more destward motion now.

The current direction is at 13 MPH going WNW. This is expected to continue for another 48 hours before turning NW and NNW at the end of the 5 day period.

As stated above, we believe that Helene is going under some kind of rapid strengthening, or at least it was. At the end of 5 days, we expect Helene to peak as a weak Cat 4 before slowly weakening.

INITIAL 80 MPH
12HR VT 85 MPH
24HR VT 90 MPH
36HR VT 95 MPH
48HR VT 100 MPH
72HR VT 115 MPH
96HR VT 125 MPH
120HR VT 135 MPH