TC Bondo (DISSIPATING)

[wjs3]

P.K.

I poked around the La Reunion site to see if I could find the wind/pressure history you posted on Bondo earlier in this thread:

ITC Bondo:

17/12/2006 12:00 65.35 10.42 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1002 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
17/12/2006 18:00 64.86 10.65
18/12/2006 00:00 64.42 10.73 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1003 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
18/12/2006 06:00 63.79 10.78 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1000 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
18/12/2006 12:00 63.10 10.80 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1000 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
18/12/2006 18:00 61.60 11.00 2.5 DEPRESSION tropicale 998 30 kt, 55 km/h 42 kt, 78 km/h
19/12/2006 00:00 60.50 11.00 3.0 TEMPETE tropicale moderée 992 40 kt, 74 km/h 56 kt, 104 km/h
19/12/2006 06:00 59.50 10.50 4.0 Forte TEMPETE tropicale 976 60 kt, 111 km/h 84 kt, 156 km/h
19/12/2006 12:00 58.50 10.70 5.0 CYCLONE tropical 950 85 kt, 157 km/h 119 kt, 221 km/h
19/12/2006 18:00 105kts, 925hPa


and I could not find it. Where did you get that, please?

Thanks!

WJS3

[Coredesat]

La Reunion doesn't make it easy to find, but here's a direct link:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... table.html

[wjs3]

Thanks!

WJS3

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
635 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S HAS WEAKENED DUE TO
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DESPITE ENCOUNTERING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STORM WILL REMAIN IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.
REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND ESTABLISHES RADIAL OUTFLOW UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE (OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL) RETREATS WEST-
WARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS
36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.//

NNNN

[wxmann_91]

Well, Bondo is looking sickly this morning. NOT 115 kt, most likely. It reminds me of Frances. Looks good, ERC, yeah yeah, then bam! big weakening. The culprit is clear: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 5shrZ.html

Big anticyclone is shearing it to bits and pieces, and has been doing so for the last 24 hr. If that anticyclone remains there, it isn't going to strengthen.

[HURAKAN]

NOT A 115 KNOTS CYCLONE!!!

[Coredesat]

Indeed, the center's becoming exposed. AFWA Dvorak bulletin:

463
TPXS10 KGWC 212135
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO)
B. 21/2031Z (115)
C. 9.5S/4
D. 49.3E/6
E. FIVE/MET5
F. T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS -21/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

46A/ PBO EMBDD CTR/ANMTN.

AODT: 5.9 (UCCR)

DYER

[Coredesat]

And SAB, while I'm at it:

698
WWIO21 KNES 212112
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN METEOSAT-5 IRNIGHT
.

DECEMBER 21 2006 2030Z
.
9.4S 50.0E T4.5/5.5/W1.5/24HRS BONDO(05S)
.
PAST POSITIONS...9.4S 51.3E 21/0830Z VIS/IRDAY

9.9S 52.6E 20/2030Z IRNIGHT

.
REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AN EMBEDDED CENTER IS
SURROUNDED BY THE BLACK GRAY SHADE. DT=5.0 P=4.5 .

[P.K.]

Down to 65kts with a central pressure of 970hPa as of 0000 GMT.

[Chacor]

90 kt? Really?

[JonathanBelles]

that looks no way in heck 90 kts.

[Cyclenall]

90 kt? Really?

That's the worst looking 90 knot tropical cyclone I have ever seen. I'd guess it's 30-35 knots by now if it's still alive that is. I've seen tropical waves look better. Talk about rapid change in strength.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 50.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM ENCOUNTERED A REGION OF HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH DISPLACED THE DEEP
CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT,
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS TO REFLECT A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND.
IN FACT, MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THAT TC 05S
HAS STARTED TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD MADAGASCAR IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
CORRECTED WIND RADII AT TAU 12.//
NNNN

[Coredesat]

Now a 55 kt/980 hPa forte tempete tropicale per Meteo-France.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 49.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAG-
ERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WITH SPIRAL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DETAILED UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
THAT AN ANTICYCLONE HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN IM-
PROVED OVERALL OUTFLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED AND IS NOW LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE 22/00Z UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
BUT WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36 AS THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAG-
ASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND AFTER TAU 24 SHOULD SERVE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGHLY CYCLIC NATURE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, FURTHER FROM LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z AND 231500Z.//

[P.K.]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/3/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 50.3E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 080 SO: 200 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 10.9S/50.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 11.2S/49.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 12.1S/48.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 12.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 13.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 15.0S/46.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
CNVECTION MAINTAINS DESPITE FLUCTUATING PATTERN. ARC OF CIRRUS IN THE
SOUTH-EAST SHOWS EXISTENCE OF WINDSHEAR - WEAK TO MODERATE.
BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS AND SHOULD NOW TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS.
FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY CYCLES OF
WEAKENING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BEYOND, BONDO COULD FIND A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK WINDSHEAR
AND WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SSTS. REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE IF
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MADE A LANDFALL.

[Chacor]

That's quite a large 30kt wind field...

[P.K.]

The 30kt radii have expanded a lot since this time yesterday doubling in some cases to 200km.

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

Just noticed this in the MetArea bulletin from Mauritus as well. Nothing from La Reunion yet.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

THE WAVE EVOLVING NEAR 05S 68E HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WEAK LOW NEAR
05S 69E AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGN OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BOUND TO INCREASE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BONDO IS NOW STARTING
TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

[Coredesat]

Just noticed this in the MetArea bulletin from Mauritus as well. Nothing from La Reunion yet.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

THE WAVE EVOLVING NEAR 05S 68E HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WEAK LOW NEAR
05S 69E AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGN OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BOUND TO INCREASE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BONDO IS NOW STARTING
TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

That's 90S - I'll start a new thread.

[HurricaneBill]

The 30kt radii have expanded a lot since this time yesterday doubling in some cases to 200km.

Didn't that happen to Frances in 2004 when she got sheared?