SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

For those who have not seen the RECON plan for tomorrow:

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR 30.5N77W...OR
ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE
COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH
STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. THE 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 35-40 KT
WINDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
AND THE BAHAMAS. BUOY 41010 CONTINUES TO REPORT SEAS NEAR 20 FT.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THE LOW
IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
MORNING...IF NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1714.shtml?

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Guidance....

Is there a text of the model run? The link to the texts doesn't work for me.

[skysummit]

12z Tropical Guidance....

Is there a text of the model run? The link to the texts doesn't work for me.

I didn't see one yet. I got that off the NHC's ftp site. Here's the GFDL:

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.3 77.3 255./ 9.9
6 30.3 77.8 280./ 4.0
12 30.4 78.1 286./ 3.1
18 31.1 78.6 320./ 7.8
24 31.6 79.5 302./ 8.9
30 31.9 80.2 293./ 7.2
36 32.0 81.0 274./ 6.4
42 31.7 81.6 249./ 6.1
48 31.7 81.7 240./ .7
54 31.8 82.3 277./ 5.0
60 31.4 83.0 243./ 6.6
66 31.0 83.5 230./ 6.1
72 30.5 83.5 186./ 4.7
78 30.5 83.2 84./ 2.3
84 30.6 83.5 278./ 1.9
90 30.5 84.1 261./ 5.3
96 30.4 84.3 247./ 2.3
102 30.5 84.3 340./ 1.1
108 30.5 84.6 282./ 2.1
114 30.6 84.8 281./ 1.4
120 30.7 84.7 4./ 1.5
126 31.0 84.9 330./ 3.7

[Evil Jeremy]

yea. can i also have the link to the model map for the invests that included around 15 of them please?

[cycloneye]

Ok skysummit,it now works as they released the GFDL text.

For those who dont have the link to the texts of the models here it is:

Text of model runs

[skysummit]

[Rieyeuxs]

Beautiful storm. It is too bad it won't track more eastward before the recurve. I agree that we need the rain!!!
From the latest SAL it looks like the Atlantic is too dry to develop it any further, although sea temps look warm. Any chance of this turning into a fish later?

[Stratusxpeye]

So by these main page on the weather channel is this now a subtropical storm? Meaning that it would be named soon? Maybe after recon goes in if it doesnt die before than. http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropi ... enter_news

[HURAKAN]

So by these main page on the weather channel is this now a subtropical storm? Meaning that it would be named soon? Maybe after recon goes in if it doesnt die before than. http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropi ... enter_news

TWC is going at full force with this system.

"During the overnight hours of Monday into Tuesday, the extratropical low evolved into a subtropical storm. A subtropical storm has a few characteristics of both an extratropical low and a tropical cyclone. First, it has convection, or thunderstorm activity, around a well-defined center of circulation. Second, it has become detached from its associated fronts (cold, warm, occluded). Finally, it has sustained gale/tropical storm force winds."

[artist]

question for the pro's around here - if this takes the loop back out to sea - is there anything out there that could make it do a loop-de-loop to then return this way? The se coast of Fl. TIA

[HURAKAN]

08/1745 UTC 30.1N 77.9W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Slowing down as it moves SW.

[Evil Jeremy]

not good.

[artist]

an even better radar image -

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[HURAKAN]

The track of the storm based on Dvorak.

[Fusion13]

This system is doing a lot of beach erosion and some minor coastal flooding is South Florida due to the swells and combined high tide now.

[sweetpea]

Interesting article from our local news here in Orlando regarding the storm.

http://www.local6.com/weather/13278106/detail.html

Debbie

[Evil Jeremy]

and this is coming from Max. This is not going to end well, even though we need all this rain.

[seaswing]

oh but guys, we need this rain so desparately! seriously, I have friends that are under mandatory evacuation for wildfires right now. It is so smoky in Gainesville right now that people are using their headlights. I really hope this thing doesn't loop back out to sea.... if we don't get some rain, our area is going to be devastated. Not to mention the air quality makes it hard to breathe.....

[artist]

what is interesting is he said there is not likely to be alot of rain. Just what we don't need - a wind storm.