INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[GeneratorPower]

The morning visibles are showing a broad area of cyclonic turning and an assumed center point just off the Yucatan. If you haven't checked out the Atlantic Floater visibles, now is the time. Looking good!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Opal storm]

Wow this thing just popped up out of nowhere huh. I was looking at this area last night and I had my doubts but it looks great this morning. And I don't like what NAM is showing.

[KatDaddy]

Wow. Reconn possible for Invest 92L. Very interesting and early start to the season.

[Ivanhater]

Wow this thing just popped up out of nowhere huh. I was looking at this area last night and I had my doubts but it looks great this morning. And I don't like what NAM is showing.

I do....we need some rain..

[Aric Dunn]

here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..

http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1549.shtml?

special disturbance statement

[Ivanhater]

NW wind , looks like we have a closed low!!!

Observed at: Cancun, MX
Elevation: 23 ft
[Light Rain]
73 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
Overcast 12000 ft
(Above Ground Level)".....

[Chacor]

000
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN

[Frank2]

Well, if the NHC is correct a non-tropical low would be good - lots of rain from the "warm front" right side of the low...

[SWFLA_CANE]

Why would RECON fly if this is not going to be a tropical system?

[Thunder44]

here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..

http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg

I think you are way off on LLC placement. According to TPC, the center is 75 miles SE of Cozumel.

[Thunder44]

Why would RECON fly if this is not going to be a tropical system?

Recon is only tenatively scheduled for tomorrow and is done out of precaution.

[JonathanBelles]

im glad recon is going out. Im hoping of an Inch of rain out of this. This looks similar situationally to Alberto last year.

[Aric Dunn]

here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..

http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg

I think you are way off on LLC placement. According to TPC, the center is 75 miles SE of Cozumel.

I have re analyzed it ... this is much better .. its much clearer on visible now..

I think you will agree with this take a look at the close up loop from the nasa site .. you can see the actual circulation getting going a little better as it rotates around a broader low just about where the NHC puts it .. yeah i was off on my last analysis... http://img487.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... l0loq4.jpg

[Brent]

Recon is planned to be cautious, it's much easier to cancel than to schedule at the last-minute.

[windstorm99]

Nice view of the banding takeing place...

[Ivanhater]

If you look at the clouds banding in the yucatan channel, they are not being pulled off to the NE they are actually trying to band around to the SW...interesting if that were to continue...

[windstorm99]

Covection has continued to expand to the east...

[Aric Dunn]

here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..

http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg

I think you are way off on LLC placement. According to TPC, the center is 75 miles SE of Cozumel.

I have re analyzed it ... this is much better .. its much clearer on visible now..

I think you will agree with this take a look at the close up loop from the nasa site .. you can see the actual circulation getting going a little better as it rotates around a broader low just about where the NHC puts it .. yeah i was off on my last analysis... http://img487.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... l0loq4.jpg

remember that is just a small circulation rotating around a broader low

[jdray]

If it follows the GFS models, it only benefits those in South Florida.

North Florida and Georgia would still be suffering from lack of rain. Worse case scenario, sorry South Florida people, we need rain more than Lake Okeechobee does.

The CMC would be the best model layout to bring needed rain to the worse areas.

I dont know who you are talking to but all floridaa and southern GA. needs the rain not just north florida and south GA

I know that, its just that North Florida and Georgia need it more than south Florida. You may want to actually check drought levels.
To bring back to near normal drought index levels, South Florida on needs 3-6 inches, Central Florida needs 6-9 inches,
North Florida, the Panhandle and South Georgia need 9-12 inches.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... addpcp.gif