LOW FORMING IN NW Caribbean RECON TOMORROW

[HURAKAN]

WIndshear is very strong (30 knots +) in the Northern Caribbean Sea and in the GOM, but as the trough of LP affecting the SE US lifts away, the atmosphere could become more conducive for development in the NW Caribban and SE GOM.

[dixiebreeze]

Rather dramatic pressure drop from previous:

Conditions at 42056 as of
1550 GMT on 06/14/2007:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 103 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 81.7 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
1550 SSE ( 152 deg ) 9.1 kts
1540 SE ( 135 deg ) 10.1 kts
1530 ESE ( 109 deg ) 11.8 kts
1520 E ( 98 deg ) 13.2 kts
1510 ESE ( 110 deg ) 9.1 kts
1500 ESE ( 109 deg ) 8.4 kts
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1518 15.7 kts E ( 94 deg true )

[Aric Dunn]

15z shear map that upper low is weakening pretty fast
below 30 and decreasing ... under 20 soon

[caneman]

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

By 500 miles away, I would call far. Like I said earlier, I tried for him to pay more attention to the NW Caribbean instead, but he did not took my advise, he still insisted in the west-central GOM.

Not bad if it materializes!!!

Come on now. If that is the case, I call for a system to be in the western Caribb in 2 weeks (with an allowance of course of 500 miles to the north, 500 miles to the east and 500 miles to the west, etc..... This isnt slamming. Just pointing out that it is next to impossible to try and forcast with any accuracy the formation of a storm 7 to 10+ days out. You can guess based on climatologically favored areas and timeframes and to some extent patterns that may or may not be in place but most defintely a lucky guess would have to be a big part of it. IMHO.

[Aric Dunn]

Rather dramatic pressure drop from previous:

Conditions at 42056 as of
1550 GMT on 06/14/2007:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 103 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Ai
1518 15.7 kts E ( 94 deg true )

here is the combined plot.. pressure has been increase which in normal this time of day...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

i see steady pressure

the lowest pressure at any reporting station buoy or ship is 1009 to 1010mb

[Noles2006]

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

By 500 miles away, I would call far. Like I said earlier, I tried for him to pay more attention to the NW Caribbean instead, but he did not took my advise, he still insisted in the west-central GOM.

Not bad if it materializes!!!

Come on now. If that is the case, I call for a system to be in the western Caribb in 2 weeks (with an allowance of course of 500 miles to the north, 500 miles to the east and 500 miles to the west, etc..... This isnt slamming. Just pointing out that it is next to impossible to try and forcast with any accuracy the formation of a storm 7 to 10+ days out. You can guess based on climatologically favored areas and timeframes and to some extent patterns that may or may not be in place but most defintely a lucky guess would have to be a big part of it. IMHO.

But to do this in JUNE is still impressive.

I didn't see anyone else throwing out their predictions.

[Aric Dunn]

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

By 500 miles away, I would call far. Like I said earlier, I tried for him to pay more attention to the NW Caribbean instead, but he did not took my advise, he still insisted in the west-central GOM.

Not bad if it materializes!!!

Come on now. If that is the case, I call for a system to be in the western Caribb in 2 weeks (with an allowance of course of 500 miles to the north, 500 miles to the east and 500 miles to the west, etc..... This isnt slamming. Just pointing out that it is next to impossible to try and forcast with any accuracy the formation of a storm 7 to 10+ days out. You can guess based on climatologically favored areas and timeframes and to some extent patterns that may or may not be in place but most defintely a lucky guess would have to be a big part of it. IMHO.

But to do this in JUNE is still impressive.

I didn't see anyone else throwing out their predictions.

guess .. not a scientific prediction or forecast

[SouthFloridawx]

Man everyone is really bored and it really shows. I guess we need a couple of tropical systems to track...

[Aric Dunn]

sounds good

[wjs3]

Rather dramatic pressure drop from previous:

Conditions at 42056 as of
1550 GMT on 06/14/2007:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 103 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Ai
1518 15.7 kts E ( 94 deg true )

here is the combined plot.. pressure has been increase which in normal this time of day...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

i see steady pressure

the lowest pressure at any reporting station buoy or ship is 1009 to 1010mb

Aric brings up a great point for anyone watching for prssure rises or falls...in the tropics, each day the pressure oscillates up and down as part of the normal "rhythm"--if you are watching a pressure trace and don't note these, you could end up baited into thinking that pressures are dropping (or rising) becasue of the weather, not becasue of the normal pattern.

Looks like the normal pattern to me too, Aric.

WJS3

[ronjon]

Latest CMC (12Z) forms a weak low in the SE GOM and very slowly moves it north up the interior of the FL peninsula. Great rainmaker if this turns out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

The Canadian perhaps may be onto something....

[tailgater]

Rather dramatic pressure drop from previous:

Conditions at 42056 as of
1550 GMT on 06/14/2007:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 103 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Ai
1518 15.7 kts E ( 94 deg true )

here is the combined plot.. pressure has been increase which in normal this time of day...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

i see steady pressure

the lowest pressure at any reporting station buoy or ship is 1009 to 1010mb

Aric brings up a great point for anyone watching for prssure rises or falls...in the tropics, each day the pressure oscillates up and down as part of the normal "rhythm"--if you are watching a pressure trace and don't note these, you could end up baited into thinking that pressures are dropping (or rising) becasue of the weather, not becasue of the normal pattern.

Looks like the normal pattern to me too, Aric.

WJS3

I try to look at what the pressure was 24 hrs. ago, seems to work out well.

[SouthFloridawx]

What do ya think about my predictions?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=95419

[jrod]

This hardly looks like a blob to me. Early hype on a some thunderstorms right now.

[Stormcenter]

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

By 500 miles away, I would call far. Like I said earlier, I tried for him to pay more attention to the NW Caribbean instead, but he did not took my advise, he still insisted in the west-central GOM.

Not bad if it materializes!!!

Come on now. If that is the case, I call for a system to be in the western Caribb in 2 weeks (with an allowance of course of 500 miles to the north, 500 miles to the east and 500 miles to the west, etc..... This isnt slamming. Just pointing out that it is next to impossible to try and forcast with any accuracy the formation of a storm 7 to 10+ days out. You can guess based on climatologically favored areas and timeframes and to some extent patterns that may or may not be in place but most defintely a lucky guess would have to be a big part of it. IMHO.

I think he was kidding...well at least I hope he was.

[WindRunner]

This hardly looks like a blob to me. Early hype on a some thunderstorms right now.

I noticed this blob (yes, it is!) trying to condense down a couple of days ago . . . didn't say anything, but that would have been overhyping. Now, after these thunderstorms have lasted for several days, it's time to start taking a good look at it . . .

[Weatherfreak000]

I think given the fact shear to the west of the system is dropping off a little this system might have a little big of a chance to fan out.


It's merely a waiting game, same as with 93L, if the broad area DOESN'T die off in 24 hours it COULD have a chance.

We need two things to occur.


-The Broad low cannot end up over land.

-The low must maintain itself under 20-25 knot wind shear for at least the next 24 hours.


However given the diurnal maximum, i'm thinking yeah maybe we could see this become invest 94L. Not too bad considering I believe 97L became Cindy.

[caneman]

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

By 500 miles away, I would call far. Like I said earlier, I tried for him to pay more attention to the NW Caribbean instead, but he did not took my advise, he still insisted in the west-central GOM.

Not bad if it materializes!!!

Come on now. If that is the case, I call for a system to be in the western Caribb in 2 weeks (with an allowance of course of 500 miles to the north, 500 miles to the east and 500 miles to the west, etc..... This isnt slamming. Just pointing out that it is next to impossible to try and forcast with any accuracy the formation of a storm 7 to 10+ days out. You can guess based on climatologically favored areas and timeframes and to some extent patterns that may or may not be in place but most defintely a lucky guess would have to be a big part of it. IMHO.

I think he was kidding...well at least I hope he was.

OK. I may have missed that. Just don't want newbies thinking that this can actually be done with any amount of accuracy.

[caneman]

What do ya think about my predictions?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=95419

Good job!