Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT
THIS TIME AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

Now the NHC seems to like what it is seeing...93L soon perhaps?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Sanibel]

This wave area has really flared up tonight. Finally a robust ITCZ.

[bwhorton2007]

Looks really good tonight yes 93L may arrive soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eastly shear and the SAL is effecting it. So no development should be expected in the short term.

[Meso]

5:30 AM TWO

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND
39W...POSSIBLY NOT RELATED ALL THAT MUCH TO THIS WAVE. OTHER
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST
AREA...FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...AND FROM 5N TO 6.5N
BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N42W 14N40W
16N37W.

[Meso]

[AJC3]

I'd suggest looking at a few of the othenear 9N/38W.

*moved quote from the Ingrid thread*

What's interesting about this feature is that the deepest convection is to the SE of the main area of vorticity that had been spawning convection (and what was mentioned in the TWO) a few days ago. While the 805 TWD quoted above mentions that this area may not be related to the t-wave, I strongly suspect that it is. It appears that there has been a tremendous amount of convergence in this area...you can see fairly strong SW flow in the CU lines feeding into this area of convection.

Based on a vis time lapse I looked at early this morning, here's a rough sketch of what I think is going on...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED BY
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...THEY COULD BECOME
A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This thing is HUGE!:

[Praxus]

Hmm with this one and the caribbean action , I expect to see two invests by tomorrow morning.
Maybe later today...

[punkyg]

Does this wave have a low with it?
it looks better then it did earlier.

[Gustywind]

Does this wave have a low with it?
it looks better then it did earlier.

Yeah punkyg much better for sure more convection trying to consolidate , but the low...maybe later matter of time...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LARGE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
35W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 38W-43W

[drezee]

There is a ton of heat in this complex. I see at least two low level centers and maybe three under the convection. If all of this heat bundles, then someone is in trouble.

[Sanibel]

Weak vort at 8-47. Could be eddy.

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Sanibel]

Still see what looks like turning at 8-48.

[HURAKAN]

933
ABNT20 KNHC 170230
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB