Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola eastward to the Leeward Islands, as well as the
adjacent northeastern Caribbean Sea and Atlantic waters. This
activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward, but
strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any significant
development of this system during the next several days.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive when the system
reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of
development, this system could produce enhanced rainfall across
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and
Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Gustywind]

Very strong round of showers and thunderstorms who are spreading on my location while i'm writing. Lightnings are moving towards my direction.
Guadeloupe is always Under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Watch out my neighbours, this twave has a very nice convective activity today! Hope everbody is safe and dry in the Leewards Luis be aware, be on your guard it's raining nicely with tstorms, looks like juicy convection is doting your area too.
Gustywind

To have a better idea of the situation in Guadeloupe. I share you the radar of Meteo-France showing how the butterfly island has been swept by the numerous strong showers and tstorms tonight.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[cycloneye]

Very strong round of showers and thunderstorms who are spreading on my location while i'm writing. Lightnings are moving towards my direction.
Guadeloupe is always Under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Watch out my neighbours, this twave has a very nice convective activity today! Hope everbody is safe and dry in the Leewards Luis be aware, be on your guard it's raining nicely with tstorms, looks like juicy convection is doting your area too.
Gustywind

To have a better idea of the situation in Guadeloupe. I share you the radar of Meteo-France showing how the butterfly island has been swept by the numerous strong showers and tstorms tonight.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Wow my friend.That is a lot of rain there. Yes,PR have been thru a day of scatterd showers with some heavy ones with thunder and there will be more rain tonight until Friday.

[Dean4Storms]

I don’t put much bearing at least 5 days out with models on exact track nor intensities especially without even a Low center yet formed. The only takeaway I get from them is the general area to watch (Florida and then Gulf of Mexico) and climatology on what can occur this time of year. Bears monitoring!

[Gustywind]

Very strong round of showers and thunderstorms who are spreading on my location while i'm writing. Lightnings are moving towards my direction.
Guadeloupe is always Under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Watch out my neighbours, this twave has a very nice convective activity today! Hope everbody is safe and dry in the Leewards Luis be aware, be on your guard it's raining nicely with tstorms, looks like juicy convection is doting your area too.
Gustywind

To have a better idea of the situation in Guadeloupe. I share you the radar of Meteo-France showing how the butterfly island has been swept by the numerous strong showers and tstorms tonight.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Wow my friend.That is a lot of rain there. Yes,PR have been thru a day of scatterd showers with some heavy ones with thunder and there will be more rain tonight until Friday.

Yes, that's a lot my friend OK Luis thanks for your report in PR! So you should have a solid round of rain storms to deal with.
Be safe and dry. Looks like things are calm down for here since 1 hour, rain and tstorms have stopped. , good news.
Anyway, we continue to monitor it. I will keep your informed tommorow and share you the latest from in terms of rainfall, etc;
Gustywind

[Hammy]

Something that just occurred to me that I'll throw out there, is the possibility (since models were originally developing this) is that since it was gradually dropped closer to when it would've developed, that it could be an indicator not of non-development, that whatever comes of it may end up being too small for the models to resolve easily.

[Cpv17]

That was an interesting run of the Euro. Basically skirts the coastlines of Louisiana and Texas and moves into far STX and Northern Mexico. Probably would bring a lot of rain to the southern half of Texas.

[wxman22]

Yep the 0z Euro actually develops the system into a tropical depression/storm as the system nears the Texas coast, it also stalls it along the south Texas coast producing waves of rain along the entire coast.

[NDG]

I am still saying that this TW has to be watched, as it moves westward it will be doing so along with retrograding ULLs from the PVS pattern over the Atlantic, if it is able to get in a sweet spot in between the ULLs it will have a chance to develop and I think models are having a hard time forecasting their positions in the short to medium range.

[toad strangler]

The GFS and Euro have basically traded tracks of this wave

[NDG]

Euro's 0z ensembles back up to half of them showing development after only a a quarter them showing development on yesterday's 12z run.

[cycloneye]

8 AM EDT TWO.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers from Hispaniola eastward to
the Leeward Islands and the adjacent waters are associated with a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This activity
is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during
the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less
hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[NDG]

A nice h70 vorticity has developed with it north of PR this morning.

[ObsessedMiami]

Interesting in those Euro ensembles the farther north it tracks, the stronger it is before it reaches Florida. South means stronger in the Gulf. The path bears watching for Florida. Could mean a squally gusty Labor Day

[wxGuy]

I am still saying that this TW has to be watched, as it moves westward it will be doing so along with retrograding ULLs from the PVS pattern over the Atlantic, if it is able to get in a sweet spot in between the ULLs it will have a chance to develop and I think models are having a hard time forecasting their positions in the short to medium range.

+1

[SFLcane]

There is clearly a nice spin now to this wave just north of puerto rico. Hopefully it stays in check

[gatorcane]

There is clearly a nice spin now to this wave just north of puerto rico. Hopefully it stays in check

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/20 ... 447045.gif

Yes definitely a spin, some legendary hurricanes have formed over the Bahamas and Florida around Labor Day weekend so got to keep an eye on it.

[toad strangler]

Latest AFD on this wave out of KMLB (Central East Coast FL)

Mon-Thu...
T-wave currently transiting Puerto Rico/Hispaniola on track to
impact central FL early next week. Increasing moisture ahead of the
wave axis will push PWat values to btwn 2.00"-2.25" by late Mon,
with readings holding arnd 2.25" areawide thru Tue Night as the lcl
airmass becomes nearly saturated. GFS/ECMWF MOS are bullish on PoPs
thru midweek with chances largely AOA 50pct, as high as 70pct on Tue
according to GFS. Current trend indicates the wave will have its
greatest impact on central FL Mon/Tue, with a trailing tropical
moisture plume continuing to enhance precip chances thru midweek.
Will go with 60-70pct PoPs areawide Mon/Tue, trending down to arnd
50pct Wed/Thu as the t-wave exits the region. Diurnal temp spread
will remain no greater than 15F and likely will be AOB 10F along the
coast...maxes in the 80s/L90s, mins in the M/U70s.

[Agua]

I am still saying that this TW has to be watched

There is zero chance that the people here will not be watching it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Vorticity picking up steam per CIMSS charts. And if im reading the 06z GFS right in my phone, the model does more with the wave before Florida than after.