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GFS continues to be confused.
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mrbagyo wrote:Imo, the area of cloudiness near 16N 137E needs tagging
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/index54f34c75f0f3a05e.gif
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/wgmsshr.GIF2.gif
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/wgmsvor.gif
Scattered showers will persist this morning but gradually taper off
toward midday as east to northeast winds push into the area. A fairly
dry pattern will set up for the latter half of the week with
generally easterly flow dominating. Models still show clouds and
moisture increasing around Saturday and into next week. Around the
middle of next week, models show a disturbance moving by the Marianas
which could bring increased showers and thunderstorms. Currently, it
seems this disturbance may come from the large cluster of convection
now southeast of Majuro.
Way out to the east, an area of disturbed weather is evident to the
southeast of Majuro around 3N 175E. It is very disorganized on
satellite imagery, but it is worth noting that it from this batch
of clouds and showers that the GFS tries to develop a tropical
cyclone later in the week that could theoretically pose a threat to
the Marianas next week. However, it`s an on-again off again threat:
the latest run (00Z) brings a tropical storm to the Marianas next
Tuesday, but the previous run (18Z) has nothing, while the previous
run to that (12Z last night) has the storm in the Marianas, and
yesterday`s 06Z run has little or nothing. Since the ECMWF shows
basically nothing in its latest run (00Z), we are not inclined to
take the on-again GFS seriously yet, but we will certainly monitor
that area closely.
Hayabusa wrote:
My most interest is the one near or still just east of the dateline, the model storm I've said days ago, but only Euro is persistent in developing it, GFS is on and off.
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