2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

I lose. Looks like eastern Galveston Island 7pm Tuesday, June 22 for the hurricane landfall in the 12Z GFS. OK, next round for 18Z.

[weeniepatrol]

I lose. Looks like eastern Galveston Island 7pm Tuesday, June 22 for the hurricane landfall in the 12Z GFS. OK, next round for 18Z.

I’m going to guess Miami this time

[skyline385]

It even stalls over the Dallas area in the last 4 timesteps lol, classic Texas and their stalled systems

[crimi481]

Cat 5 enters worm hole - lands on dark side of the moon

[captainbarbossa19]

I lose. Looks like eastern Galveston Island 7pm Tuesday, June 22 for the hurricane landfall in the 12Z GFS. OK, next round for 18Z.

I can't count how many times the GFS has shown a hurricane directly hitting me at long-range. It shows something every year and usually multiple times. I wish someone would pay me $100 for each time the GFS showed this solution because I would earn probably $500 a year at least.

[cycloneye]

Euro has something.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1534613771255263232




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1534614488112156673

[aspen]

12z Euro has two EPac systems taking similar tracks to Pamela/Rick/Agatha, but also shows a low pressure area over Central America and part of the Caribbean at 240hr. That might be the disturbance the GFS keeps blowing up into a major.

Edit: cycloneye beat me to it

[FireRat]

https://i.imgur.com/RZHRpd3.gif
06z GFS... Hours 210-324

Wicked run by the GFS, holy cow! This would be almost unprecedented for June, and the GFS sure has a thing for Naples-Fort Myers this year!

[InfernoFlameCat]

I lose. Looks like eastern Galveston Island 7pm Tuesday, June 22 for the hurricane landfall in the 12Z GFS. OK, next round for 18Z.

I was close

[SFLcane]

We need to start a poll: Where will landfall of the Gulf hurricane be on the next GFS run? Closest wins. My guess is Tampico for the 12Z run.

Hi Wxman57, Kinda off topic from this thread but have you updated your landfall areas highest at risk during August-September for June? Interested in seeing. You have Florida highlighted in your last update

Sorry, no changes to our forecast from early May. Florida is DEFINITELY under-the-gun this year, as is the SE and E U.S. Coast. I'm particularly concerned about the eastern Caribbean islands (Luis). MDR may be favorable for long-tracked stronger hurricanes into the islands.

Hi wxman57, My apologies for bringing this topic up again in this thread but can you share any images or data on why you think the caribbean and florida are at high risk this season? Thanks!

[skyline385]

It's happy hour GFS time again, maybe the panhandle this time. I think we have hit everything except that and NOLA.

[johngaltfla]

https://i.imgur.com/RZHRpd3.gif
06z GFS... Hours 210-324

GFS =

[cycloneye]

18z GFS happy hour at least makes sense with a shortie to Mexico in BOC and heavy on EPAC.

[skyline385]

Lots of clustered members in 18Z

[Astromanía]

Lots of clustered members in 18Z

https://i.imgur.com/ehLHqlr.png

Interesting

[Nederlander]

18z GFS happy hour at least makes sense with a shortie to Mexico in BOC and heavy on EPAC.

This would be ideal. A sloppy, eastern-weighted system with lots of onshore flow into central and southern TX.

[Fancy1001]

Strong cat 3/weak cat 4 into the Baffin Bay Area of south Texas on the 00z gfs run.

[Category5Kaiju]

"Ouch"- SE Texas

[Europa non è lontana]

00z GFS continues to model development in the western Caribbean at around +180, but it's an outlier; only one other model from this morning's runs and the 12z runs yesterday show this solution. Other models have the precursor disturbance moving into the Pacific before developing.

[aspen]

Who voted for Naples for yesterday’s 12z run? You finally got it right for today’s 06z run.

Both the 00z and 06z GFS produce a storm in the subtropics out of a front by late next week into the weekend. It would be something if we got two simultaneously active June storms, but it’s more likely than not that we only get one of those at the most. The subtropics system fits better with early season climo.