ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Nino3.4 is now again above 1.0. After dropping to 0.9 for a few days, it is back up to 1.05 and warming. Could this be the start of the "surge" in nino3.4 anomalies that CFS has been predicting to happen this month?

On the other hand , although all nino region daily anomalies are holding on, the SST pattern looks like the east pacific has cooled a bit in the past week?

NDG posted a graphic on the 2015 EPAC season thread that shows the sub-tropical jet situated lower than it should be. That's the reason for the cooling.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

More eastern-based Niño now thanks to the strong westerly wind burst... All regions are warming up right now (credit to CFSv2) while Niño 4 is steadily cooling. Warm waters (anomalies) moving to the east.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF in the May update has a strong El Nino for the second half of 2015.Notice there is no big spread among the members.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting information from Dr Phil Klotzbach about the comparisons of the ECMWF Enso forecasts of past El Nino years.

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach Latest ECMWF fcst calls for strong El Nino. Figure shows ECMWF forecast vs. 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 1950.

[Kingarabian]

Gonna have to see some very rapid warming to get to 1.8C by June.

Both the ECMWF and the CFS have a very strong Nino. But they've been doing this every year now. We'll see.

[Dean_175]

ECMWF seems to be blowing this thing up to an impossible strength. Up to 4C ? wow!



On the other hand, nino3.4 has been warming again. After cooling down to 0.9C just 1 week ago, today we are nearly at 1.2C, and still on a warming trend. IF this warming trend continues, we could reach 1.5C by the end of May or the beginning of June. If that occurs , I will be more confident in the predictions some models (CFS and ECMWF) are making of a 2.0+ event. The models that are showing this dramatic warming seem to be showing an imminent warming spurt. We saw a spurt last month that brought us from 0.5 to 1.0C. If we get another spurt soon that takes us to 1.5C , then I could more easily imagine the type of warming CFS and ECMWF predicts (but not 3-4C!).

[Dean_175]

:uarrow:

Gonna have to see some very rapid warming to get to 1.8C by June.

Both the ECMWF and the CFS have a very strong Nino. But they've been doing this every year now. We'll see.

You're right. At least in the past 4 years, ECMWF has been pretty warm biased. In 2011, the May ECMWF nino plume completely missed the re-establishment of La Nina and instead predicted El Nino/warm neutral for that year. CFS was showing a very strong El Nino last year. I think the CFS was picking up on a strong Kelvin wave and blowing it up to a strong El Nino. However, what has really been catching my attention is that as we are reaching the end of the spring barrier, the models are becoming more bullish and confident , not less so. Last year, the models that were showing a very strong event had already backed off by this time of year.

[Ntxw]

You're right. At least in the past 4 years, ECMWF has been pretty warm biased. In 2011, the May ECMWF nino plume completely missed the re-establishment of La Nina and instead predicted El Nino/warm neutral for that year. CFS was showing a very strong El Nino last year. I think the CFS was picking up on a strong Kelvin wave and blowing it up to a strong El Nino. However, what has really been catching my attention is that as we are reaching the end of the spring barrier, the models are becoming more bullish and confident , not less so. Last year, the models that were showing a very strong event had already backed off by this time of year.

And the base is already high. Not typical to start with around 1C in May it's very rare. Less is needed to get higher, as you said in a previous post another 0.5C and we'd be in the near strong range. Given the slow rate of SST's changes if we get there we'd probably keep it going.

[dexterlabio]

30-day SOI went down to -14. I believe the last time we hit this value was in 2010.

[Ntxw]

30-day SOI went down to -14. I believe the last time we hit this value was in 2010.

It's going to fall further the next week or so. We lose the weaker values and keep the bigger negatives. Should see a rise in Nino 3.4 on Monday's update either 1.1C or 1.2C. It's already the most potent El Nino for the time of year since the 1997 Nino. Will we keep pace?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You think its possible that the Nino peaks early? Say Oct? The mean of those models runs is very very impressive.

[Yellow Evan]

You think its possible that the Nino peaks early? Say Oct? The mean of those models runs is very very impressive.

No, provided a new sub-surface pool emerges this fall.

[cycloneye]

There is no comparison between 2014 and 2015 on May 15.West winds dominate in 15.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nice new and useful tool in Tropical Tidbits, CFSv2 SST anomaly forecasts

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=669

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion on Twitter by Eric Blake and JB about El Nino.Ntxw,what is your take on this good discussion between pros?

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 42m42 minutes ago
Best argument I've seen recently against an extremely strong #ElNino is from @BigJoeBastardi -MJO activity quite weak


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 36m36 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 Interesting model wars too. Waiting on the new JAMSTEC as it has always been very good at trimming expectations since 09


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 31m31 minutes ago
@BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue For May, for a strengthening event (not tail end), 2015 is warmest ever. will it keep up?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 36m36 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 vast difference around Australia between now and 1997. Nothing like an @RyanMaue map to show it!

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 30m30 minutes ago
@BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue agree this isn't 1997. E/CPac looks like 92 but Nino going other direction than 92

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 27m27 minutes ago
@BigJoeBastardi haven't seen this type of event in modern era, the totality of Pacific warmth in May-- good science experiment

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 36m36 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 Maybe tough to gage totality of the picture and the linkage needed with other major dns, similar to late 1950s event

[1900hurricane]

I could buy into the late 1950s analog (1957 in particular I'm assuming) mentioned in the Twitter conversation above. The CONUS pattern has very much resembled that year's as of late.

[Ntxw]

Good discussion, we have to remember this is also a multiyear Nino as well not a lot to go by even for the 1957 analog. The only issue I have is bastardi saying MJO is weak. This is normal as the MJO is strongest during neutral events and during seasonal transitions. For La Nina and El Nino as they strengthen the MJO becomes incoherent due Enso dominating favored areas of convection against the MJO.

[Dean_175]

One factor that may work against an extreme el nino this year vs 1997 is that there was much more anomalously cool water near Australia in 1997. Having cooler water there helps convection to move eastward, and also helps create a weaker zonal temp gradient. As long as we don't see much interference from MJO (such as being stuck in australia region), I don't think a weaker MJO is going to be as much an issue. The atmosphere is already responding and we have still seen some strong WWB events the past 2 months.

Another thing that does not look as promising as 1997 is the rate of warming. We have not seen much warming of nino3.4 in about a month, while 1997 was warming more rapidly at this time of year. Unless, nino3.4 starts really warming again , 2015 won't keep the pace.

[Yellow Evan]

You also have to keep in mind that 1982 was a Super Nino and didn't intensify much till late summer.

[NDG]

It looks like that on today's update, Nino 3.4 stays at +1 deg C and all other Nino Regions slightly cooled down.