2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[LarryWx]

More on the Oct. W Caribbean climo: though I found none of the 13 10/11-20 geneses that hit FL as a H to have been during strong+ Niño, I did find these 4 others that are notable & in strong Niño (2nd year in 2 of these 4):

1) Fabian of 1991 formed 10/14 & skirted S FL as a TS:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2) Floyd of 1987 formed a little earlier (10/9) & hit S FL as a H:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

3) #8 of 1940 formed 10/19 & went W into C. Amer as a H instead of moving N:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

4) #9 of 1899 formed a bit later (10/25) & missed S FL to the E by only 100 miles (though it hit SC as a cat 2):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, looking back at my Gulf of Mexico prediction, mostly based off of last year not having any activity, it looks like I am most likely going to bust there. Quite frankly, it is do or die time for that part of the Atlantic, and shear is just relentless there. Unless some switch gets pulled quickly, this will almost certainly be the first two-year period in a long time (first ever in my lifetime, in fact) that no hurricanes were in the Gulf of Mexico. On top of that, consider that in 2014 and 2015 put together, the only hurricane in the Caribbean has been Gonzalo (which only hit the far northeastern corner), and you have quite a precedent to top, indeed.

That being said, I know that the GFS is hinting at something later this month coming out of the western Caribbean, and as Larry has alluded to, it can happen even in strong El Nino seasons. Still, I don't know much about 1899 but just by judging the hurricanes that took place that year, I have to wonder if that was a 1969 or 2004-like Modoki event. And I have nagging doubts about Floyd's status as a hurricane in 1987, given a somewhat high pressure and a terrible satellite impression when it was (supposedly) a hurricane. Still, with the lack of activity in recent years, if conditions get favorable even for a moment and a disturbance is present, everything could change in a heartbeat there. I strongly do not recommend discounting such a surprise happening, even if it doesn't seem likely.

I have thoughts about 2016, and let's just say I don't want to go there right now. Let's finish 2015 first, hopefully without any more major storms or surprises.

-Andrew92

[Hammy]

Something interesting to note is that two more storms and one more hurricane will tie 2015 with the base numbers (12/4/2) of 2002, which was a significantly weaker El Nino. And that year had substantially less MDR activity as well.

[ninel conde]

might get some action next couple of years


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 14m14 minutes ago State College, PA

Seeds being planted for possible huge hurricane seasons 16,17. Fading nino, return to 04-05 MDR SST..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQyjJSyVEAAw5E-.png

[LarryWx]

The Euro ensembles have been hinting that the MJO may later in the month get to a little out of the circle into MJO phases 1 and then 2. We'll see.

Here are the number of TC geneses per day (expressed as %'s) for the period 1995-2012 in Oct for each MJO phase (these stats suggest 1-4 much more favorable than 5-8...at least twice as favorable). Within the circle is neither unfavorable nor favorable:

Phase 1: 14% (Sandy of 2012)
Phase 2: 11%
Phase 3: 11%
Phase 4: 19% (Wilma of 2005)
Phase 5: 9%
Phase 6: 4%
Phase 7: 5%
Phase 8: 2%
In Circle: 10% (Irene of 1999)

ALL 10% (56 TC’s)

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago State College, PA

Look out next hurricane season. CFSV2 sending enso 3.4 to neutral as Atlantic boils, Global temp falls 17 like 12

[Hurricaneman]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago State College, PA

Look out next hurricane season. CFSV2 sending enso 3.4 to neutral as Atlantic boils, Global temp falls 17 like 12

1995, 2004, and 1998 are showing up as possible analogs for 2016 for me

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WPBWeather]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago State College, PA

Look out next hurricane season. CFSV2 sending enso 3.4 to neutral as Atlantic boils, Global temp falls 17 like 12

1995, 2004, and 1998 are showing up as possible analogs for 2016 for me

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I REALLY hope JB and you wrong about 2016

[dexterlabio]

^Years preceded by an El Nino tend to become very active (see 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005)..with the current strong El Nino moistening up the global atmosphere I think we may be seeing a very different Atlantic that we haven't seen for the past 3 or 4 years... One can only imagine how active it may get.

[Ntxw]

This season's dominant story will likely end up being Joaquin. In a sense it was the Gonzalo of 2014, a singular system racking up the majority (a whopping 28 units of ACE) that was greater than the rest of the season combined. 1997 had Erika in similar fashion though Joaquin was more intense. It found the Bermuda triangle which this year's Erika did not (was expected to) and took advantage, a mid latitude system that came from a non tropical low.

With that said 56 units of seasonal is not basement (0-40) and more in line with your typical El Nino bunch. It is not to normal (88) so we can't claim it is an above average season or average season, but it wasn't a dead season either. What it will do is continue the 3 year trend of below average seasons, what will 2016 bring? Looks like La Nina or cold neutral is a good bet early on. 2016 will be telling, if it is a la nina and it does show a below average season (i.e cold amo Ninas 1973, 1983) then we will know that the long term trend has changed. But if it is very active then it was just a short hiatus.

On the other hand the US's lucky streak of no official majors continues (and hopefully keeps going). Next week will be the 10th anniversary of Wilma making landfall in Florida, subsequently that state's last hurricane hit as well.

[tolakram]

That so called streak of majors based on a man made metric always bothers me.

Ike, 2008. We don't count it as a major because the center was disrupted and the storm became a huge monster unable to increase wind speeds to cat 3. If nothing else Ike should be THE reason to abandon the scale and use something more indicative of the actual threat level.

Sorry, off my soap box now, not intended to be directed at any one person.

[Ntxw]

That so called streak of majors based on a man made metric always bothers me.

Ike, 2008. We don't count it as a major because the center was disrupted and the storm became a huge monster unable to increase wind speeds to cat 3. If nothing else Ike should be THE reason to abandon the scale and use something more indicative of the actual threat level.

Sorry, off my soap box now, not intended to be directed at any one person.

I agree wholeheartedly, there are several hits since that could easily be categorized with damaged seen with official majors. And it's proven you don't need a major to have a deadly multi-billion dollar storm. Though every storm now is becoming more and more costly regardless of intensity due to development in coastal areas. Of course our seasoned met Alyono would love to pick a bone or two with dinosaurs at NOAA for lack of change

[Kalrany]

Cannot agree more. The scale is almost laughable at this stage -- would be funny if it was not so tragic.

I thought that there was some talk of revamping it? Or is my memory shotty?

[Alyono]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago State College, PA

Look out next hurricane season. CFSV2 sending enso 3.4 to neutral as Atlantic boils, Global temp falls 17 like 12

1995, 2004, and 1998 are showing up as possible analogs for 2016 for me

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Now why would an el niño season be an analog for a neutral season?

[Alyono]

This season's dominant story will likely end up being Joaquin. In a sense it was the Gonzalo of 2014, a singular system racking up the majority (a whopping 28 units of ACE) that was greater than the rest of the season combined. 1997 had Erika in similar fashion though Joaquin was more intense. It found the Bermuda triangle which this year's Erika did not (was expected to) and took advantage, a mid latitude system that came from a non tropical low.

With that said 56 units of seasonal is not basement (0-40) and more in line with your typical El Nino bunch. It is not to normal (88) so we can't claim it is an above average season or average season, but it wasn't a dead season either. What it will do is continue the 3 year trend of below average seasons, what will 2016 bring? Looks like La Nina or cold neutral is a good bet early on. 2016 will be telling, if it is a la nina and it does show a below average season (i.e cold amo Ninas 1973, 1983) then we will know that the long term trend has changed. But if it is very active then it was just a short hiatus.

On the other hand the US's lucky streak of no official majors continues (and hopefully keeps going). Next week will be the 10th anniversary of Wilma making landfall in Florida, subsequently that state's last hurricane hit as well.

given how hyperactive the EPAC was in 1983, I suspect it was not a classic niña. Maybe cool on the equator but very warm in the Pacific development region. That would explain the horrific shear that basically took the MDR out of play for the entire year

[Alyono]

That so called streak of majors based on a man made metric always bothers me.

Ike, 2008. We don't count it as a major because the center was disrupted and the storm became a huge monster unable to increase wind speeds to cat 3. If nothing else Ike should be THE reason to abandon the scale and use something more indicative of the actual threat level.

Sorry, off my soap box now, not intended to be directed at any one person.

If we went back to the reanalysis era, the following would have been "majors"

Gustav, Ike, Irene, Sandy

I suspect this is not a record streak at all. Merely an era with better data (and we have learned that the classic pressure to wind relationship is not accurate)

[Yellow Evan]

That so called streak of majors based on a man made metric always bothers me.

Ike, 2008. We don't count it as a major because the center was disrupted and the storm became a huge monster unable to increase wind speeds to cat 3. If nothing else Ike should be THE reason to abandon the scale and use something more indicative of the actual threat level.

Sorry, off my soap box now, not intended to be directed at any one person.

If we went back to the reanalysis era, the following would have been "majors"

Gustav, Ike, Irene, Sandy

I suspect this is not a record streak at all. Merely an era with better data (and we have learned that the classic pressure to wind relationship is not accurate)

Maybe even Isaac?

[Alyono]

That so called streak of majors based on a man made metric always bothers me.

Ike, 2008. We don't count it as a major because the center was disrupted and the storm became a huge monster unable to increase wind speeds to cat 3. If nothing else Ike should be THE reason to abandon the scale and use something more indicative of the actual threat level.

Sorry, off my soap box now, not intended to be directed at any one person.

If we went back to the reanalysis era, the following would have been "majors"

Gustav, Ike, Irene, Sandy

I suspect this is not a record streak at all. Merely an era with better data (and we have learned that the classic pressure to wind relationship is not accurate)

Maybe even Isaac?

lets not push it. It would have been a cat 2, however. Winds likely 90-95 kts

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 48m48 minutes ago Bahamas

Public cup of weather Joe will talk about the danger of the winter noreaster season followed by what I think is a big hurricane burst 16/17

[ninel conde]

july 2016 atlantic SST's

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRRu7MnUcAAwtt-.png