2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Highteeld]

ECM continues to show a very stout wave ejecting off the West African coast at the end of its run

[Hammy]

Euro giving up on the MDR this run by the looks of it.

[gatorcane]

Is it me or have the upgraded models been highly inconsistent this year for the Atlantic basin at least as far as forecasting genesis? The wave WSW of Cape Verde islands is an example. The GFS goes from not much to a hurricane in one run in the medium range. If anything the CMC has been the most consistent and doesn’t seem to show as many phantom storms.

[USTropics]

Is it me or have the upgraded models been highly inconsistent this year for the Atlantic basin at least? The wave WSW of Cape Verde islands is an example. The GFS goes from not much to a hurricane in one run in the medium range. If anything the CMC has been the most consistent and doesn’t seem to show as many phantom storms.

It's been a global issue, lead time has been ~4 days imo. The CMC has legit gone from one end of the spectrum (spinning up every vorticity in the basin) to being the most conservative of all the models, in terms of genesis, after the upgrades.

[tolakram]

During periods of very unfavorable conditions the models behave like this, they've done it for years. The euro has always been horrible for genesis, missing most. The old GFS just as bad in the other direction (phantom storms). Every year you'll see invests start to pop when we enter the heart of the season, even if the models don't start picking up on it yet.

[Hammy]

Is it me or have the upgraded models been highly inconsistent this year for the Atlantic basin at least? The wave WSW of Cape Verde islands is an example. The GFS goes from not much to a hurricane in one run in the medium range. If anything the CMC has been the most consistent and doesn’t seem to show as many phantom storms.

It's been a global issue, lead time has been ~4 days imo. The CMC has legit gone from one end of the spectrum (spinning up every vorticity in the basin) to being the most conservative of all the models, in terms of genesis, after the upgrades.

The lack of anything on the GEM was a large part of what had me believing a nearly quiet August was on the horizon, figuring if this model that spins up literally every cloud it sees can't spin anything up, something must be off that we're not seeing.

Euro has been far more inconsistent than normal in the long run as well and the GFS has been having just about every disturbance develop at least once over the last several runs, even ones that don't, only to drop them after.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Another system is forecast to develop in the MDR per the 12Z GFS during the first and second week of September. This is the first time it detects that system, so let’s see if it becomes a trend in the next runs...

[StormLogic]

Another system is forecast to develop in the MDR per the 12Z GFS during the first and second week of September. This is the first time it detects that system, so let’s see if it becomes a trend in the next runs...

jesus christ and look behind it lol

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Another system is forecast to develop in the MDR per the 12Z GFS during the first and second week of September. This is the first time it detects that system, so let’s see if it becomes a trend in the next runs...

jesus christ and look behind it lol

The 12Z ECMWF appears to be hinting development in the eastern Atlantic at 240 hours as well.

[Steve]

CMC has a hurricane approaching the SWLA coast in 10 days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=12

GFS propagates a wave into the Gulf.

EC 500 has a system farther west
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=12

As of now, the globals like the western gulf just after Labor Day.

[Kingarabian]

CMC has a hurricane approaching the SWLA coast in 10 days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=12

GFS propagates a wave into the Gulf.

EC 500 has a system farther west
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=12

As of now, the globals like the western gulf just after Labor Day.

Surprised no one is talking about the CMC's solution, A good test for it. I think that's Dorian.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing a tropical cyclone in the MDR in the long range, I’ll believe it when or if it’s in the midrange

[USTropics]

The 0zGFS is showing a tropical cyclone in the MDR in the long range, I’ll believe it when or if it’s in the midrange

00z ECMWF picking up a MDR system at the end of the run, had a strong signal on the 12z as well:

[CyclonicFury]

Active times ahead.
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166096967098937344

[Kazmit]

Active times ahead.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166096967098937344

Nice to see some potential for activity in the MDR. A long tracking, recurving Cape Verde hurricane would be fun to track.

[DioBrando]

Active times ahead.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166096967098937344

Nice to see some potential for activity in the MDR. A long tracking, recurving Cape Verde hurricane would be fun to track.

I've always thought of Fernand and Humberto as long-tracking, intense CV systems. IDK, but it's just a hunch I had since last year.
And I still have that hunch up to today. I don't really know, but those two names just stood out to me when I looked at the list last year.

[toad strangler]

Active times ahead.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166096967098937344

Nice to see some potential for activity in the MDR. A long tracking, recurving Cape Verde hurricane would be fun to track.

I've always thought of Fernand and Humberto as long-tracking, intense CV systems. IDK, but it's just a hunch I had since last year.
And I still have that hunch up to today. I don't really know, but those two names just stood out to me when I looked at the list last year.

Love ya buddy but getting vibes off storm names themselves is lower brow than licking your finger and sticking in the air, Farmers Almanac forecasts, and wooly caterpillar stuff lol

[Hammy]

Euro says game on.

[Highteeld]

Looks like two waves may be ejecting off the East African Coast per 00z EPS at that time ^

[SoupBone]

Anyone else see the system being sent into the Louisiana/Texas area at the ICONs 06Z run.