2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[floridasun78]

other issue is SAL we need less of it for us see any storm in far Atlantic and carribbean

Sal is always like this early

in july we will see sal too but end of july it will be less in tropical

[TheProfessor]

Tonight's Ukie has strengthening energy moving through Apalachee bay and becoming an organized storm as it moves eastward towards the Florida coast. Right now it's on its own.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

[northjaxpro]

Saw that earlier GCANE. Yeah, looking pretty solid to me we will see genesis in Apalachee Bay this weekend of Edouard.

[GCANE]

Big Rain over Big Bend

[GCANE]

:uarrow: Saw that earlier GCANE. Yeah, looking pretty solid to me we will see genesis in Apalachee Bay this weekend of Edouard.

Good morning Northjaxpro.
Looks like north GOM is primed.
Already seeing unstable air just south of Mobile bay.

[northjaxpro]

It is going to be a very active stormy , wet period of weather in my neck of the woods for this holiday weekend GCANE.

[GCANE]

Still watching the remnants of 96L.
Wave axis extends from SA coast to Leeward islands where heavy convection is firing due to interaction with a TUTT to its north.
Chances of TC development increase when it gets to the SW side of the TUTT which will be in a couple days.
May see something in the Bahamas then and or the west Carb over the later part of the weekend.

[GCANE]

Could hit the Outer Banks

[GCANE]

This actually evolves from a vort that is on the SW side of an UL Low over New England.
Somewhat the same scenario as a Tropical Wave as it gets on the SW side of a TUTT.
Interesting, I haven't seen such a development over the CONUS before.
Plausible though since the GOM is supercharged.

[GCANE]

GFS and UKMET showing TC genesis in the NE GOM this weekend.
Please refer back to the Models thread for details on the 7/1 00Z runs.
Likely area of development is Apalachee Bay with track across north FL into the Gulf Stream.
GFS hinting at a possible curve back into the Outer Banks.
Stay tuned.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS still essentially the same solution as the 00Z with genesis in Apalachee Bay. This run, GFS keeps it as a tropical storm up to when its off shore the North Carolina coast by Tuesday morning. 00Z GFS had this as a hurricane at the same juncture.

Still will likely see this go back and forth with future runs with intensity.

[northjaxpro]

06Z ICON now on board, with 1009 mb Low Pressure moving out of Apalachee Bay by 06Z early Sunday, then moving directly through Jax by 21Z late Sunday aftermoon/ early evening.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is coming from a MCV forming along the mid MS river in 24 hrs.
Dropping SE into the NE GOM.
Develops from a combination of high CAPE in the GOM and being on the SW side of an ULL over New England which reinforces UL Outflow.
The mid-level, positive-tilt trof from the ULL moves out to sea as the system moves across FL.
Gives it enough room to spin up in the Gulf Stream.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it is coming from a MCV forming along the mid MS river in 24 hrs.
Dropping SE into the NE GOM.
Develops from a combination of high CAPE in the GOM and being on the SW side of an ULL over New England which reinforces UL Outflow.
The mid-level, positive-tilt trof from the ULL moves out to sea as the system moves across FL.
Gives it enough room to spin up in the Gulf Stream.

Yes, that is essentially right GCANE. I have followed since last weekend the models, especially the GFS, picking up on the shortwave/MCV feature moving out from the Mid-MS Valley and dropping S/SE to Apalachee Bay, and eventual.TC genesis there. The GFS to this point has performed very well with this imo. Also, you see that shortwave/MCV very well moving down SE through the MS River Valley on satellite imagery this morning, poised to make it to Apalachee Bay this weekend.

[GCANE]

Going back a little more on this.
Looks like it'll break of a negative-tilt trof currently over Wyoming and Montana.
Trof moves east and breakoff occurs in about 12 hrs over Nebraska.
Energy moves SE to the Missouri / Tennessee border which then convection intensifies the vort.
Vort then moves SE into the NE GOM.
On the SW side of the New England ULL then which aids spinup.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is coming from a MCV forming along the mid MS river in 24 hrs.
Dropping SE into the NE GOM.
Develops from a combination of high CAPE in the GOM and being on the SW side of an ULL over New England which reinforces UL Outflow.
The mid-level, positive-tilt trof from the ULL moves out to sea as the system moves across FL.
Gives it enough room to spin up in the Gulf Stream.

Yes, that is essentially right GCANE. I have followed since last weekend the models, especially the GFS, picking up on the shortwave/MCV feature moving out from the Mid-MS Valley and dropping S/SE to Apalachee Bay, and eventual.TC genesis there. The GFS to this point has performed very well with this imo. Also, you see that shortwave/MCV very well moving down SE through the MS River Valley on satellite imagery this morning, poised to make it to Apalachee Bay this weekend.

Have you ever seen something like this before?

[GCANE]

Negative-tilt trof over WY is already kicking up some trouble in Missouri.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it is coming from a MCV forming along the mid MS river in 24 hrs.
Dropping SE into the NE GOM.
Develops from a combination of high CAPE in the GOM and being on the SW side of an ULL over New England which reinforces UL Outflow.
The mid-level, positive-tilt trof from the ULL moves out to sea as the system moves across FL.
Gives it enough room to spin up in the Gulf Stream.

Yes, that is essentially right GCANE. I have followed since last weekend the models, especially the GFS, picking up on the shortwave/MCV feature moving out from the Mid-MS Valley and dropping S/SE to Apalachee Bay, and eventual.TC genesis there. The GFS to this point has performed very well with this imo. Also, you see that shortwave/MCV very well moving down SE through the MS River Valley on satellite imagery this morning, poised to make it to Apalachee Bay this weekend.

Have you ever seen something like this before?

It is a very good looking, vigorous shortwave feature for sure!