TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

superfly · #621 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:32 am

Astro_man92 wrote:I thought that is had a closed cirrculation or does it

It still looks like the center is trying to relocate to me. Old center left arrow, perhaps new center right arrow? Hard to tell.

gkrangers · #622 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:35 am

Now that I look at it...it looks like the cente rmay have taken a step backwards...maybe redefined itself slightly eastward towards the convection.

Or maybe no real change at all..

Hurricaneman · #623 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:37 am

It looks like there is another vortex going around the main center

clfenwi · #624 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:39 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Where did you find the Advisoryes going back to 1988? Because mine only go back intill 1991.

No need to cry

I'm not looking at advisories specifically, I'm inferring it from the data on the unisys site. So the word advisories may not be accurate in the strictest sense (since there would be errors of +/- 1 for each time there was a transition from TD to TS)... 'six hour periods in the best track data' would be better, I suppose.

Anyhow, I am shocked.... Claudette of 1979 ... 8 as a TD, followed by 3 as a TS, followed by 21 as a TD... eight more as a TS... then 17 more as a TD... grand total of 46 6 hour periods of being a TD.

gkrangers · #625 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:48 am

clfenwi wrote:going back another 10 years with the most td advisory hunt... I would be shocked to find that Chris of '88 doesn't hold the record.... 27 TD advisories, then 3 as a TS ... followed by 8 more TD...

...yeah gkrangers, Euro is worth staying up for... that's one thing I liked about my two weeks in Central time, got to go to bed an hour earlier after seeing the 00Z models come out...

Euro seem late to you?

clfenwi · #626 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:49 am

UKMET text guidance

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 52.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.08.2005 22.7N 52.0W MODERATE
12UTC 09.08.2005 22.7N 54.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2005 23.5N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2005 23.9N 59.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 25.2N 61.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2005 26.5N 63.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2005 28.0N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2005 29.4N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2005 30.5N 64.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2005 31.0N 63.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2005 30.7N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2005 30.6N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2005 31.0N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

clfenwi · #627 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:50 am

gkrangers wrote:
clfenwi wrote:going back another 10 years with the most td advisory hunt... I would be shocked to find that Chris of '88 doesn't hold the record.... 27 TD advisories, then 3 as a TS ... followed by 8 more TD...

...yeah gkrangers, Euro is worth staying up for... that's one thing I liked about my two weeks in Central time, got to go to bed an hour earlier after seeing the 00Z models come out...
Euro seem late to you?

Not from what I remember of when I was looking at for it at this time (relatively)... seemed like it usually hit the web a little after 2 AM EDT...

and note that you can usually manage to pull the individual graphics before the loop hits the main page http://tinyurl.com/aldv7 ,for example (still the 12Z image, but the 00Z images usually can be found before the set hits the main page)

gkrangers · #628 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:54 am

clfenwi wrote:
gkrangers wrote:
clfenwi wrote:going back another 10 years with the most td advisory hunt... I would be shocked to find that Chris of '88 doesn't hold the record.... 27 TD advisories, then 3 as a TS ... followed by 8 more TD...

...yeah gkrangers, Euro is worth staying up for... that's one thing I liked about my two weeks in Central time, got to go to bed an hour earlier after seeing the 00Z models come out...
Euro seem late to you?

Not from what I remember of when I was looking at for it at this time (relatively)... seemed like it usually hit the web a little after 2 AM EDT...

and note that you can usually manage to pull the individual graphics before the loop hits the main page http://tinyurl.com/aldv7 ,for example (still the 12Z image, but the 00Z images usually can be found before the set hits the main page)

Ok, I just haven't stayed up for the 00z euro much since the winter..gotta love it then.

gkrangers · #629 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:04 am

Alrighty then...00z Euro takes the storm westward towards the Carolinas..however...it looks like it curves it northward, up the coast, but offshore.

So the idea is the same, rides around the ridge...gets near the coast but no landfall on this run.

clfenwi · #630 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:08 am

gkrangers wrote:Alrighty then...00z Euro takes the storm westward towards the Carolinas..however...it looks like it curves it northward, up the coast, but offshore.

So the idea is the same, rides around the ridge...gets near the coast but no landfall on this run.

That's a sand-shifter if it has any kind of intensity on that track.

superfly · #631 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:08 am

gkrangers wrote:Alrighty then...00z Euro takes the storm westward towards the Carolinas..however...it looks like it curves it northward, up the coast, but offshore.

So the idea is the same, rides around the ridge...gets near the coast but no landfall on this run.

What's the link to the Euro model?

clfenwi · #632 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:08 am

superfly wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Alrighty then...00z Euro takes the storm westward towards the Carolinas..however...it looks like it curves it northward, up the coast, but offshore.

So the idea is the same, rides around the ridge...gets near the coast but no landfall on this run.

What's the link to the Euro model?

http://tinyurl.com/7v246

clfenwi · #633 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:10 am

SSD's latest estimate

09/0545 UTC 22.3N 52.9W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

gkrangers · #634 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:12 am

clfenwi wrote:SSD's latest estimate

09/0545 UTC 22.3N 52.9W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

South of due west..

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #635 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:13 am

It looks to be moving west-southwest. This system is as weird as Kyle.

KeyLargoDave · #636 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:23 am

Bad for the Outer Banks, if I'm seeing that right.

Disclaimer: Don't take my word for what the models show!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #637 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:25 am

Remember that Andrew was geting distoryed by shear back in 1992. It also was getting pulled by a trough/weakness. Then a ridge builded in. Could this by part 2? We will find out soon.

gkrangers · #638 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:28 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Remember that Andrew was geting distoryed by shear back in 1992. It also was getting pulled by a trough/weakness. Then a ridge builded in. Could this by part 2? We will find out soon.

This has been discussed over and over...This isn't going to be Andrew.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #639 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:31 am

You can't discount anything with this storm.

clfenwi · #640 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:34 am

Looks like we may be in for another continuity shredding forecast (track-wise) come 0500L... after all the forecast position for 12Z is 23.0N 54.4W .... would take a 300 course (or so) from here on out to make that...

TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online