2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[NDG]

I was looking at 2002 as a possible analog year based on current ENSO numbers, which are very close. Also the MDR was fairly "coolish" by comparing apples to apples on these graphs, but the interesting part is that windshear was a little stronger over the Caribbean and MDR in 2002 compared to now at this same time of the year.

[NDG]

To add from the post above, the interesting part is that during the heart of the hurricane season of '02 westerly windshear was non-existent over the Caribbean thus why 2 major hurricanes tracked over the NW Caribbean and GOM.

[Dylan]

I was looking at 2002 as a possible analog year based on current ENSO numbers, which are very close. Also the MDR was fairly "coolish" by comparing apples to apples on these graphs, but the interesting part is that windshear was a little stronger over the Caribbean and MDR in 2002 compared to now at this same time of the year.

I just wanted you to know that I was coming on here to post this exact same thing. Already had the images uploaded. Wow. Agree 100%.

[Dylan]

If anything, 2018 is a bit more favorable than 2002. With such powerful tropical waves, we need to watch out for systems like Isadore and Lili. The 2002 season didn’t get rolling until September, and it very well could have had a lot to do with a convective enhancing MJO/Kelvin Wave moving through that triggered.

The Yucatán saved Louisiana from disaster with Isadore, and Isadore’s upwelling in the Gulf of Mexico saved Louisiana from Lili less than 2 weeks later.

[Alyono]

If anything, 2018 is a bit more favorable than 2002. With such powerful tropical waves, we need to watch out for systems like Isadore and Lili. The 2002 season didn’t get rolling until September, and it very well could have had a lot to do with a convective enhancing MJO/Kelvin Wave moving through that triggered.

The Yucatán saved Louisiana from disaster with Isadore, and Isadore’s upwelling in the Gulf of Mexico saved Louisiana from Lili less than 2 weeks later.

wasn't the cold wake that saved Louisiana from Lili. Lili reached peak intensity over the heart of the cold wake.

Lili was sheared apart before landfall, like Katrina was

[crm6360]

Lili was sheared apart before landfall, like Katrina was

Purely from a satellite presentation Katrina had dry air entrainment that eroded her western half. She didn’t look sheared. That entrainment of continental air is what seems to plague most landfalling major hurricanes in the northern gulf.

[Alyono]

Lili was sheared apart before landfall, like Katrina was

Purely from a satellite presentation Katrina had dry air entrainment that eroded her western half. She didn’t look sheared. That entrainment of continental air is what seems to plague most landfalling major hurricanes in the northern gulf.

It was shear that did in Katrina. Katrina had significantly more shear than did Lili. Nearly 20 kts at landfall according to SHIPS for Katrina. That will doom any intense cane of that intensity. That shear probably saved 25,000 lives. It may have also saved even more when Isaac in 2012 made landfall as Isaac produced a higher surge into SE Louisiana. However, after Katrina, the levees were strengthened

Lili had less shear, but was much smaller. That;s why it underwent a similar evolution as Katrina. Both weakened nearly the same just before landfall. Katrina just started from a higher intenity

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
Quite a -AMO look to the Atlantic SST now. Almost to August, and the zone that can support TCs (> 26C) over the MDR doesn't start until 50W! Also, if you look along 40W, the SST at 40N (26C) is higher than the SST at 10N (25C). Image from @TropicalTidbits

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1021761671386132480

[SoupBone]

Yea, this is a really, really bad steering pattern for the US if this holds into August/September. Massive ridge off the NE CONUS. Doesn't need to be a hyperactive season with this type of setup to bring severe impacts to the US.

Where would this steer them? Toward the NE Coast?

[TheStormExpert]

Yea, this is a really, really bad steering pattern for the US if this holds into August/September. Massive ridge off the NE CONUS. Doesn't need to be a hyperactive season with this type of setup to bring severe impacts to the US.

Where would this steer them? Toward the NE Coast?

Likely the Carolinas and SE U.S. (a lot like 1996).

[TheStormExpert]

@AndyHazelton
Quite a -AMO look to the Atlantic SST now. Almost to August, and the zone that can support TCs (> 26C) over the MDR doesn't start until 50W! Also, if you look along 40W, the SST at 40N (26C) is higher than the SST at 10N (25C). Image from @TropicalTidbits

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1021761671386132480

Watch out if anything can make it to the Gulf! Assuming shear lowers.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1021760974905327616

[SoupBone]

Yea, this is a really, really bad steering pattern for the US if this holds into August/September. Massive ridge off the NE CONUS. Doesn't need to be a hyperactive season with this type of setup to bring severe impacts to the US.

Where would this steer them? Toward the NE Coast?

Likely the Carolinas and SE U.S. (a lot like 1996).

Lots of East Coast threats that year!

[Bocadude85]

Yea, this is a really, really bad steering pattern for the US if this holds into August/September. Massive ridge off the NE CONUS. Doesn't need to be a hyperactive season with this type of setup to bring severe impacts to the US.

Where would this steer them? Toward the NE Coast?

Likely the Carolinas and SE U.S. (a lot like 1996).

A big ridge sitting of the NE USA would not allow a lot of recurves into the Carolinas like in 1996, If the pattern were to hold tracks similar to 2004 would be more likely IMO.

[Alyono]

Where would this steer them? Toward the NE Coast?

Likely the Carolinas and SE U.S. (a lot like 1996).

A big ridge sitting of the NE USA would not allow a lot of recurves into the Carolinas like in 1996, If the pattern were to hold tracks similar to 2004 would be more likely IMO.

there were more Carolina hurricanes in 2004 than 1996

[WeatherEmperor]

Likely the Carolinas and SE U.S. (a lot like 1996).

A big ridge sitting of the NE USA would not allow a lot of recurves into the Carolinas like in 1996, If the pattern were to hold tracks similar to 2004 would be more likely IMO.

there were more Carolina hurricanes in 2004 than 1996

I think he meant to imply that the steering would also include threats to the FL east coast as well.


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[Bocadude85]

Likely the Carolinas and SE U.S. (a lot like 1996).

A big ridge sitting of the NE USA would not allow a lot of recurves into the Carolinas like in 1996, If the pattern were to hold tracks similar to 2004 would be more likely IMO.

there were more Carolina hurricanes in 2004 than 1996

I was talking about storm tracks, not the number of hurricane landfalls in the Carolinas. The tracks in 1996 are completely different then the tracks of 2004.

[NDG]

@AndyHazelton
Quite a -AMO look to the Atlantic SST now. Almost to August, and the zone that can support TCs (> 26C) over the MDR doesn't start until 50W! Also, if you look along 40W, the SST at 40N (26C) is higher than the SST at 10N (25C). Image from @TropicalTidbits

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1021761671386132480

With all due respect to Andy, a low latitude rider like Beryl did close to the 10th latitude where SSTs are near 26C is all you need for a tropical system to form currently in the MDR but no question about it that those low latitude riders will be far and between this season compared to last year.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty steep drop:

[cycloneye]

Pretty steep drop:

https://i.imgur.com/E6Bhsqc.png

This should make it easier for the experts (TSR,CSU,NOAA) when they release their early August outlooks to not change much their numbers.