2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#661 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:17 am

NDG wrote:After all the fake news by the models of a potential busy July over the Atlantic is time to realize that conditions are not there yet over the basin, is just a typical July, we are going to have to wait until August, the strong waves that come out of Africa will continue to struggle with the SAL over the Atlantic MDR and then windshear over the Caribbean, which by the way it has continued despite the CFSv2 persistently forecasting it to come down.
Time to get entertained in the EPAC.


You thnk? Any Poker Players in the house? How 'bout "Jack's or Better" :tailgate:

"I'll bet 4 Millibars on my pair of Jacks (Depression's) in the hole, prior to August 1" Any takers? :cheesy:
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#662 Postby WeatherHoon » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:34 am

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#663 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:38 pm


Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#664 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:51 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?


While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#665 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:52 pm

RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?


While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.

But will this affect how active or inactive the rest of Atlantic season is?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#666 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?


While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.

But will this affect how active or inactive the rest of Atlantic season is?


It would impact the rest of July. Can't tell much beyond that.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#667 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?


While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.

But will this affect how active or inactive the rest of Atlantic season is?


It would impact the rest of July. Can't tell much beyond that.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#668 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:49 pm

Maybe better MJO phase for Atlantic starting around 10 days from now?

Image
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#669 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:03 pm

gatorcane wrote:Maybe better MJO phase for Atlantic starting around 10 days from now?


Maybe, but you're getting vastly different forecasts from the GFS vs Euro vs CFS.

CFS
Image

GFS
Image

Euro
Image
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#670 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:16 pm

Previously mentioned in posts #643 and 655 one page before none of this is really unexpected. Its been well seen conditions are not ideal for a few weeks of this month via subsidence and climo. Its nothing unprecedented. It will take a little time for rising air to work its way back.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#671 Postby Weather150 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:02 pm

Does anyone know what date Pouch tracking starts this year? I know it is around the middle of July.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#672 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:25 pm

I'm still not confident enough to make a forecast on the season yet as there are too many mixed signals. I was hoping for July to give me some idea but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I will say the MDR activity to this point is interesting, even with one being only a depression. In the last four decades only 1979, 2003, and 2005 had two MRD systems (depressions included) before the 20th, and in fact most had none.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#673 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:51 pm

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#674 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:30 pm

The steering patterns seem reminiscent of 1996 and 2003 in my view.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#675 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The steering patterns seem reminiscent of 1996 and 2003 in my view.

Actually those are good track analogs along with maybe 2004 depending on the reach and orientation and strength so we'll see
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#676 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:05 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The steering patterns seem reminiscent of 1996 and 2003 in my view.


They are for July.. :lol: it's not August and we have seen what SAL has done this month so far.

We need to wait for it. I think we got spoiled with this early season quagmire of crap. It will start in a few weeks..wait for it.. :wink:
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#677 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:31 am

@MJVentrice
After an impressive June, African easterly wave activity will reduce in July as the intraseasonal state shifts to unfavorable o/Africa


Image

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/885157426693111809


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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#678 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:40 am

I wonder how long that reduced phase will last. If the wave train, MJO, and WWB(?) both kick into high gear at the same time, things could get interesting.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#679 Postby Weather150 » Wed Jul 12, 2017 12:03 pm

Image
If this is to be right, the MJO should be back in the Atlantic by very late July.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#680 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:18 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm still not confident enough to make a forecast on the season yet as there are too many mixed signals. I was hoping for July to give me some idea but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I will say the MDR activity to this point is interesting, even with one being only a depression. In the last four decades only 1979, 2003, and 2005 had two MRD systems (depressions included) before the 20th, and in fact most had none.


So what do you think Hammy? Quiet season for the ATL and a hyper active one in the EPAC with a neutral el-niño?
:lol:
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