2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[chaser1]

After all the fake news by the models of a potential busy July over the Atlantic is time to realize that conditions are not there yet over the basin, is just a typical July, we are going to have to wait until August, the strong waves that come out of Africa will continue to struggle with the SAL over the Atlantic MDR and then windshear over the Caribbean, which by the way it has continued despite the CFSv2 persistently forecasting it to come down.
Time to get entertained in the EPAC.

You thnk? Any Poker Players in the house? How 'bout "Jack's or Better"

"I'll bet 4 Millibars on my pair of Jacks (Depression's) in the hole, prior to August 1" Any takers?

[WeatherHoon]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884794980660903937

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884794980660903937

Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?

[RL3AO]

Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?

While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.

[TheStormExpert]

Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?

While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.

But will this affect how active or inactive the rest of Atlantic season is?

[RL3AO]

Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?

While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.

But will this affect how active or inactive the rest of Atlantic season is?

It would impact the rest of July. Can't tell much beyond that.

[RL3AO]

Is this for a certain short-term period or long-term?

While this is the low-frequency band and not the MJO, I suspect much of it has to do with the very significant amplification of the MJO that the EPS has. No other models show anywhere near as strong of a MJO signal.

But will this affect how active or inactive the rest of Atlantic season is?

It would impact the rest of July. Can't tell much beyond that.

[gatorcane]

Maybe better MJO phase for Atlantic starting around 10 days from now?

[RL3AO]

Maybe better MJO phase for Atlantic starting around 10 days from now?

Maybe, but you're getting vastly different forecasts from the GFS vs Euro vs CFS.

CFS


GFS


Euro

[Ntxw]

Previously mentioned in posts #643 and 655 one page before none of this is really unexpected. Its been well seen conditions are not ideal for a few weeks of this month via subsidence and climo. Its nothing unprecedented. It will take a little time for rising air to work its way back.

[Weather150]

Does anyone know what date Pouch tracking starts this year? I know it is around the middle of July.

[Hammy]

I'm still not confident enough to make a forecast on the season yet as there are too many mixed signals. I was hoping for July to give me some idea but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I will say the MDR activity to this point is interesting, even with one being only a depression. In the last four decades only 1979, 2003, and 2005 had two MRD systems (depressions included) before the 20th, and in fact most had none.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/884948140092264448

[CrazyC83]

The steering patterns seem reminiscent of 1996 and 2003 in my view.

[Hurricaneman]

The steering patterns seem reminiscent of 1996 and 2003 in my view.

Actually those are good track analogs along with maybe 2004 depending on the reach and orientation and strength so we'll see

[ROCK]

The steering patterns seem reminiscent of 1996 and 2003 in my view.

They are for July.. it's not August and we have seen what SAL has done this month so far.

We need to wait for it. I think we got spoiled with this early season quagmire of crap. It will start in a few weeks..wait for it..

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
After an impressive June, African easterly wave activity will reduce in July as the intraseasonal state shifts to unfavorable o/Africa



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/885157426693111809

[Hurricane Andrew]

I wonder how long that reduced phase will last. If the wave train, MJO, and WWB(?) both kick into high gear at the same time, things could get interesting.

[Weather150]

If this is to be right, the MJO should be back in the Atlantic by very late July.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm still not confident enough to make a forecast on the season yet as there are too many mixed signals. I was hoping for July to give me some idea but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I will say the MDR activity to this point is interesting, even with one being only a depression. In the last four decades only 1979, 2003, and 2005 had two MRD systems (depressions included) before the 20th, and in fact most had none.

So what do you think Hammy? Quiet season for the ATL and a hyper active one in the EPAC with a neutral el-niño?