Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Abdullah]

has center forming way way east of other models

Not good for South Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am thinking that shear will permit this to develop into a tropical storm of medium strength- shear close by and large size should mean that intensification will be gradual. While it is too early to rule any area out, I predict the strong ridge will steer this into the central gulf. The North Central Gulf Coast (LA/MS/AL) seems like the most likely area of impact. It is a large system so Rain bands will likely impact areas up to hundreds of miles east of the center.

[SoupBone]

We should start taking bets, starting with Aric. I'll go on record, I'll eat my shoe if the shear doesn't prevent this from developing much, with the caveat of it hitting the central GoM. That feature has been the most persistent feature this entire season. Off to the races!

[Aric Dunn]

We should start taking bets, starting with Aric. I'll go on record, I'll eat my shoe if the shear doesn't allow this to develop much, with the caveat of it hitting the central GoM. That feature has been the most persistent feature this entire season. Off to the races!

lol you should know me by now. I never go past 24 to 48 hours with a system that has not developed yet( technically it could have been a TD the last 18 hours or so ). I'll throw my two cents in once we have at least multiple vorts rotating around a mean center. another 12 or so.

[wxman57]

I would go with a TD forming Monday afternoon in the south-central Gulf. Landfall Wed-Thu between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle as a TS with 45-50 kt winds. I don't see anything to indicate a south Florida threat. High pressure would be rather strong over that area next week. Westerly wind shear would persist up to landfall, making this a sheared TS. It would appear that my weekend off (and comp day tomorrow) is now cancelled. We will be initiating advisories in the morning.

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html


EURO ensembles

[nativefloridian]

Okay Soupbone....I'm gonna stick my neck out there and place my bet on this taking a Wilma-esque path.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[GCANE]

Chances increasing for development.
Convection firing over Honduras and Nicaragua.
Quickly filling in low-level moisture.

[boca]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

[Hurricaneman]

I would go with a TD forming Monday afternoon in the south-central Gulf. Landfall Wed-Thu between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle as a TS with 45-50 kt winds. I don't see anything to indicate a south Florida threat. High pressure would be rather strong over that area next week. Westerly wind shear would persist up to landfall, making this a sheared TS. It would appear that my weekend off (and comp day tomorrow) is now cancelled. We will be initiating advisories in the morning.

With the multiple vortices we may not really know until the weekend

[psyclone]

I would go with a TD forming Monday afternoon in the south-central Gulf. Landfall Wed-Thu between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle as a TS with 45-50 kt winds. I don't see anything to indicate a south Florida threat. High pressure would be rather strong over that area next week. Westerly wind shear would persist up to landfall, making this a sheared TS. It would appear that my weekend off (and comp day tomorrow) is now cancelled. We will be initiating advisories in the morning.

I think this is a fantastic early guess. A half a storm with most of the weather displaced to the east. Hopefully a mostly non threatening "fun" system to the extent that is possible.

[BobHarlem]

Basically impacts like another Gordon but from the West Carib this time.

[toad strangler]

A landfall of a sheared out TS in the panhandle area would probably throw a couple severe bands at least through peninsular FL.

[tpr1967]

Hey I asked this earlier. when will they declare this an invest?

[stormlover2013]

sat prob, maybe tomorrow...such a elongated system

[robbielyn]

I would go with a TD forming Monday afternoon in the south-central Gulf. Landfall Wed-Thu between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle as a TS with 45-50 kt winds. I don't see anything to indicate a south Florida threat. High pressure would be rather strong over that area next week. Westerly wind shear would persist up to landfall, making this a sheared TS. It would appear that my weekend off (and comp day tomorrow) is now cancelled. We will be initiating advisories in the morning.

can't you work on a beach somewhere on your laptop sipping a mai tai? or between holes on the golf course? seems like you miss out on time off a lot during hurricane season. I know it comes with the job but you should have a co-worker that can fill in on your days off. I feel for ya.

[psyclone]

A landfall of a sheared out TS in the panhandle area would probably throw a couple severe bands at least through peninsular FL.

We could very well have a Nate-esque event that leaves peninsular Florida completely east of the fray. It's going to be interesting to watch this evolve for sure. One thing is certain...Florida's October good luck streak WRT hurricane landfalls is impressive. Since we don't have a system yet and likely won't for quite awhile it's another classic "hurry up and wait" situation but my early gut is very much in line with wxman's thinking..

[SoupBone]

I would go with a TD forming Monday afternoon in the south-central Gulf. Landfall Wed-Thu between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle as a TS with 45-50 kt winds. I don't see anything to indicate a south Florida threat. High pressure would be rather strong over that area next week. Westerly wind shear would persist up to landfall, making this a sheared TS. It would appear that my weekend off (and comp day tomorrow) is now cancelled. We will be initiating advisories in the morning.

can't you work on a beach somewhere on your laptop sipping a mai tai? or between holes on the golf course? seems like you miss out on time off a lot during hurricane season. I know it comes with the job but you should have a co-worker that can fill in on your days off. I feel for ya.

He's more of a Winter weather type of guy. He's probably actively searching for ski resort packages right now.


Shear is increasing slightly in the Caribbean, except right around the area where this thing could form. Typical!

[robbielyn]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

maybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

[Aric Dunn]

I would go with a TD forming Monday afternoon in the south-central Gulf. Landfall Wed-Thu between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle as a TS with 45-50 kt winds. I don't see anything to indicate a south Florida threat. High pressure would be rather strong over that area next week. Westerly wind shear would persist up to landfall, making this a sheared TS. It would appear that my weekend off (and comp day tomorrow) is now cancelled. We will be initiating advisories in the morning.

can't you work on a beach somewhere on your laptop sipping a mai tai? or between holes on the golf course? seems like you miss out on time off a lot during hurricane season. I know it comes with the job but you should have a co-worker that can fill in on your days off. I feel for ya.

He's more of a Winter weather type of guy. He's probably actively searching for ski resort packages right now.


Shear is increasing slightly in the Caribbean, except right around the area where this thing could form. Typical!

https://i.imgur.com/jZuMzOl.gif

That is exactly what I have posted multiple times now. if enough convection builds and maintains or even just pulses frequently then the zonal shear axis will begin to tilt and or buckle/shift in response to the outward pressure from the convection. This might even cause a cut off upper low to form in the western gulf which if the placement of everything is right creating a much better environment.

if convection continues expect those shear charts to start showing an anticyclone build north from the SW carrib over the system.