Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[cheezyWXguy]

Will it miss FL and end up in the Carolinas?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200910/641be0074e57a9d5a8f7285aa4bc7801.jpg


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Gonna be close. Either way, I’m not a fan of what’s coming up behind it either

[Keldeo1997]

Looks like Carolina's bound

[TheStormExpert]

Narrowly misses FL to the east, where have I’ve seen this before!?

[SouthFLTropics]

Whew...Missed a few frames there and that was like a jump scare in a horror movie!!!

[toad strangler]

Modern 1979 Hurricane David

Or Matthewish but they were both closer to the FL coast for sure. (talking eyewall)

[TheStormExpert]

Whew...Missed a few frames there and that was like a jump scare in a horror movie!!!

https://i.imgur.com/Ty22cj9.gif

Like The Bahamas need another hurricane.

[SouthFLTropics]

Modern 1979 Hurricane David

Or Matthewish

Very much like Matthew, without the 90 degree right turn out of the Caribbean.

[SouthFLTropics]

Whew...Missed a few frames there and that was like a jump scare in a horror movie!!!

https://i.imgur.com/Ty22cj9.gif

Like The Bahamas need another hurricane.

Yeah really, they've been getting beaten like a rented mule recently. The Florida shield needs to extend out past the Bahama bank.

[ElectricStorm]

You know it's going to get crazy when there's 34 pages about a wave that just now came off the Africa coast

[aspen]

The 18z run is 2020 incarnate. However, if Sally becomes a hurricane that long before the LAs, it could recurve before the islands but still get close like Jose. A track like that is a good blend between the GFS’ Caribbean Runner and the Euro’s early recurve.

[SFLcane]

There are definitely some similarities in the pattern if it gets in the Caribbean to hurricane David 79.

[toad strangler]

Looking to fully re-curve at the absurdly far out hour of 294 and perhaps head for Hatteras or just offshore. Classic.

[Spacecoast]

Haven't heard from GFS-Para for awhile.
Having problems?

[Kazmit]

The Florida trapdoor is still open for business.

[NDG]

Past 144 hrs there's going to be every scenario possible on each run for the US until we get within 168-120 hrs range, lol.

I suppose an argument could be made as to why it is even worth having models that go out to 384 hours??? Do we gain any significant info from them???

Only wx fanatics like us get excited past their 120 hr range, but deep inside of us we know we're just fooling our selves or among ourselves

But their forecast trends are still useful in that range.

[Nimbus]

Past 144 hrs there's going to be every scenario possible on each run for the US until we get within 168-120 hrs range, lol.

I suppose an argument could be made as to why it is even worth having models that go out to 384 hours??? Do we gain any significant info from them???

They probably speculate like us storm2k bots.

[SFLcane]

The Florida trapdoor is still open for business.

Outcome could be quite different if it manages to get into the Caribbean. Again lots of pattern similarities to hurricane David.

[TheStormExpert]

Whew...Missed a few frames there and that was like a jump scare in a horror movie!!!

https://i.imgur.com/Ty22cj9.gif

Like The Bahamas need another hurricane.

Yeah really, they've been getting beaten like a rented mule recently. The Florida shield needs to extend out past the Bahama bank.

I’d be willing to take a bullet for them but Mother Nature doesn’t work that way!

[ConvergenceZone]

Florida and it’s protective force field lol

[SouthFLTropics]

Does this look familiar? I think we just saw this at 18z.