Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re:

#681 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:21 pm

rockyman wrote:Low pressure moving into the NE US is a good bit stronger on this run...could move it more poleward sooner



Hmm, recurve on this run? We shall see.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#682 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:22 pm

rockyman wrote:Low pressure moving into Maine is a good bit stronger on this run (997 mb!)...could move it more poleward sooner



looks progressive....might give it a bump in lat....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145355
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#683 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:23 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:Also direct hit on SW Puerto Rico in 108 hrs


Run 11 that hits us.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Scorpion

#684 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:23 pm

If anything the weakness would help it stay off Hispaniola
0 likes   
Top
weatherguy2
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:45 am

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#685 Postby weatherguy2 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:24 pm

Edit for new hr 162 update:
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:30 pm, edited 8 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#686 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:25 pm

Ridging is somewhat weaker this time.
0 likes   
Top
psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re:

#687 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:26 pm

Scorpion wrote:If anything the weakness would help it stay off Hispaniola

possibly the conus as well.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re:

#688 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:26 pm

rockyman wrote:Ridging is somewhat weaker this time.



It may not be enough to turn it North quickly enough to miss the US entirely though....
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#689 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:26 pm

Free of Hispaniola and ready to go berserk 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#690 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:27 pm

travels through Hispa.....that will eat it up some.....

GFS doesnt realize what Hispa can do to a core....poops it out still a strong TS....
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#691 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:28 pm

Almost identical position through 150 hours:
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:
Contact Miami Storm Tracker

Re:

#692 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:30 pm

rockyman wrote:Almost identical position through 150 hours:
Image


Very close to the runs Ivan hater posted earlier.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145355
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#693 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:30 pm

rockyman wrote:Almost identical position through 6 days



In my book it is consistency of the model at least for the first 6 days since it began to show this.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#694 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:31 pm

Starting to really strengthen north of eastern Cuba
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#695 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:31 pm

Image


someone tell me this travels over Hispa and still has enough to keep this intensity.....I have doubts...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#696 Postby SeminoleWind » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:31 pm

Nearly identical run
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
weatherguy2
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:45 am

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#697 Postby weatherguy2 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:32 pm

Hour 180 (Edit Update):
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#698 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:33 pm

Hugging Cuban coastline closer than 18z
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#699 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:34 pm

damn, this model has hardly wavered in the last 5 days, thats rediculous
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#700 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:35 pm

High Pressure seems to be building back west again on that map at 174 hours.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests