2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
If they merge we could have a traditional +AMO. If the MDR is cooler than the subtropics it can cause stability and sinking over the MDR. Months to go before we look east so we shall see.
0 likes
- JetFuel_SE
- Category 1
- Posts: 279
- Age: 24
- Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
SFLcane wrote:If they merge we could have a traditional +AMO. If the MDR is cooler than the subtropics it can cause stability and sinking over the MDR. Months to go before we look east so we shall see.
https://i.imgur.com/sC7XE3G.jpg
What analysis method is that?
0 likes
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
At least early on the conditions this season are much more favorable than last season, when we had a storm last 12 hours in May and then the early June system that failed to really consolidate into anything before being absorbed by a trough.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Kingarabian wrote:Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.
Mean smooths out intraseasonal variation. The control shows a dead period mid to late June. Might be another window early-mid July.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
SFLcane wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.
Mean smooths out intraseasonal variation. The control shows a dead period mid to late June. Might be another window early-mid July.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/tBPlvYW.jpg[url]
The 46 day mean shows intraseasonal variation if they're significant. The control technically counts as a singular solution out of the 50+1 possibilities. It can give false depictions compared to the mean. It's better to use the 15 day EPS for intraseasonal variation.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Massive convection over Africa:
6 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
The extreme eastern portion looks like it might have some kind of parallax error but that western portion is crazy.
I wonder, could this be the start of what the models have been predicting regarding the hyperactive West African monsoon? Or is it just due to the MJO?
I wonder, could this be the start of what the models have been predicting regarding the hyperactive West African monsoon? Or is it just due to the MJO?
2 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- TheAustinMan
- Category 5
- Posts: 1015
- Age: 24
- Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
- Location: United States
- Contact:
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
As we enter the season, here's the global SST overview for posterity. A general positive AMO state for the Atlantic (AMO index for May should be available soon), transitioning ENSO regions headed for cool neutral/La Nina, a firery subtropical CPAC/WPAC, and a warm NIO throughout (with perhaps some of Amphan's influence still present). It will certainly be intriguing to see how this global picture evolves as we roll through the months.
245KB. Source: Coral Reef Watch
245KB. Source: Coral Reef Watch
9 likes
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2300
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
I know early season activity often isn't a precursor for the rest of the season but the fact that we already have 3 named storms that all formed from tropical origins does feel like a omen. Plus the fact we could have a hurricane hitting the Gulf coast along with a developing La Nina makes things even more uneasy. This is going to be a long season (as if this 2020 already isn't long enough).
2 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Activity over Africa continues to impress. Look how far north the convection is:
2 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2656
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.
1 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
AnnularCane wrote:This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.
We’ve only had one named storm so far this month.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
TheStormExpert wrote:AnnularCane wrote:This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.
We’ve only had one named storm so far this month.
But we had two named storms in May, which 2005 did not.
Still, I don't think we will see this pace continue all season. There will almost certainly be some sort of lull once the MJO moves out of its favorable phase. June is heavily MJO dependent, and usually it is too early for anything to form in the MDR. I wouldn't be shocked if Cristobal is the only storm this month. But that doesn't mean much for the peak of the season.
9 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
This!
Looks pretty good for warming the next couple weeks. We may not get much of a break once the REAL season gets going.
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
SFLcane wrote:
This!
Looks pretty good for warming the next couple weeks. We may not get much of a break once the REAL season gets going.
We may get a lull after Cristobal for a bit but once the CV season starts when the lid comes off.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Main development region Definitely warming now. We could very well see a hyperactive season if that warming keeps up. Buckle up folks
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], Gums, HurricaneBelle, HurricaneFan, nlosrgr8, NotSparta, pepeavilenho and 79 guests